China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

After being upgraded as a middle income level country, the middle kingdom seems to be slowing down economically and it can be vividly observed in the latest data releases. During the third quarter official Chinese GDP remained at 6.7% driven primarily by real estate and the opaquel name “other” industries. As we noted yesterday in our note about the discrepancy between headline GDP and underlying data, a look at monthly output from important sectors fails to match broader output in the Chinese…

After being upgraded as a middle income level country, the middle kingdom seems to be slowing down economically and it can be vividly observed in the latest data releases. During the third quarter official Chinese GDP remained at 6.7% driven primarily by real estate and the opaquel name “other” industries. As we noted yesterday in our note about the discrepancy between headline GDP and underlying data, a look at monthly output from important sectors fails to match broader output in the Chinese…

What Does Output Tell Us About the Chinese Economy?

China released GDP figures yesterday and it is difficult to find anyone who takes them as anything other nonsensical ramblings and definitely not any good faith representative data on the world’s second largest economy.  It is simply difficult to believe that an economy would grow at 6.7% for three consecutive quarters.  At the very least we would expect statistical noise.However, even light of the statistically dubious GDP data, we do believe there are insights that can be gleaned from the…

China released GDP figures yesterday and it is difficult to find anyone who takes them as anything other nonsensical ramblings and definitely not any good faith representative data on the world’s second largest economy.  It is simply difficult to believe that an economy would grow at 6.7% for three consecutive quarters.  At the very least we would expect statistical noise.However, even light of the statistically dubious GDP data, we do believe there are insights that can be gleaned from the…

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

International Traffic Remained Strong in September: For all three state-owned carriers, international travel demand remained strong in September, as measured by RPKs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8239" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> reported a 17.1% Y/Y increase in international RPKs in September, and for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1078" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1">China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1">China Eastern Airlines Co (H) (670 HK)</a> international traffic grew by 15.6% and 28.6%, respectively. As we argued recently in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chinese-transportation-in-a-sea-of-decline-express-int-l-air-travel-are-islands-of-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:5932">Chinese Transportation: In A Sea Of Decline, Express &amp; Int’l</a>…

International Traffic Remained Strong in September: For all three state-owned carriers, international travel demand remained strong in September, as measured by RPKs. Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) reported a 17.1% Y/Y increase in international RPKs in September, and for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055 HK) and China Eastern Airlines Co (H) (670 HK) international traffic grew by 15.6% and 28.6%, respectively. As we argued recently in Chinese Transportation: In A Sea Of Decline, Express &amp; Int’l…

Int'l Air Travel Demand Remained Strong in China in September

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the demand side, with lower price of LPG in Asia, the propane trade has been hurt, and there has been no major driver of incremental demand to absorb the excess tonnage available. Freight rates across segments have dropped in the recent past, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months, even thoughthere could be a short-lived…

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the demand side, with lower price of LPG in Asia, the propane trade has been hurt, and there has been no major driver of incremental demand to absorb the excess tonnage available. Freight rates across segments have dropped in the recent past, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months, even thoughthere could be a short-lived…

DMER - LPG Shipping - Headwinds to Persist in FY17

Chinese trade data is out and it is very difficult to spin these numbers as anything less than very disappointing.  Arguably the best thing that can be said is that the rate of decline in trade value is slowing though there is no real evidence of a sustained reversal.If we look at the imports and exports in either USD or RMB terms, there is very little reason for encouragement.  On a year over year basis, USD imports and exports are down 10% and 2% respectively while in RMB imports were up…

Chinese trade data is out and it is very difficult to spin these numbers as anything less than very disappointing.  Arguably the best thing that can be said is that the rate of decline in trade value is slowing though there is no real evidence of a sustained reversal.If we look at the imports and exports in either USD or RMB terms, there is very little reason for encouragement.  On a year over year basis, USD imports and exports are down 10% and 2% respectively while in RMB imports were up…

Chinese Trade Data Recap: It Isn't Pretty

China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services throughout China, Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.  The Company also provides other airline related services including aircraft maintenance and air catering.

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China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)

What Does Output Tell Us About the Chinese Economy?

After being upgraded as a middle income level country, the middle kingdom seems to be slowing down economically and it can be vividly observed in...

Christopher Balding

Chinese GDP Insight

China released GDP figures yesterday and it is difficult to find anyone who takes them as anything other nonsensical ramblings and definitely not...

Christopher Balding

Int'l Air Travel Demand Remained Strong in China in September

International Traffic Remained Strong in September: For all three state-owned carriers, international travel demand remained strong in September,...

Daniel Hellberg

DMER - LPG Shipping - Headwinds to Persist in FY17

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Chinese Trade Data Recap: It Isn't Pretty

Chinese trade data is out and it is very difficult to spin these numbers as anything less than very disappointing. Arguably the best thing that...

Christopher Balding

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