Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Fallen But Remains in Historically Extreme Territory</li>
<li>UMC: -3.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +0.3% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Fallen But Remains in Historically Extreme Territory
UMC: -3.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
ASE: +0.3% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

<ul>
<li>UMC Results This Week; Insight Into Supply/Demand Environment for More Mature Semiconductor Segments</li>
<li>Nvidia and TSMC Announce Partnership in Silicon Photonics Technology -- Will Enable More Energy-Efficient AI</li>
<li>TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth </li>
</ul>


UMC Results This Week; Insight Into Supply/Demand Environment for More Mature Semiconductor Segments
Nvidia and TSMC Announce Partnership in Silicon Photonics Technology -- Will Enable More Energy-Efficient AI
TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>AI related demand accounted for ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025</li>
<li>5 year growth CAGR of 20%, at the top end of the previously guided 15-20% range</li>
<li>On track for $100 billion revenue in 2025, and most likely, $200 billion by 2030</li>
</ul>


AI related demand accounted for ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025
5 year growth CAGR of 20%, at the top end of the previously guided 15-20% range
On track for $100 billion revenue in 2025, and most likely, $200 billion by 2030


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>TSMC (TSM US, NR) reported a very solid 4Q24 result. Revenue was US$26.8bn (up 36.5% YoY/14.1% QoQ), beating BBG consensus/guidance by 3.9%/1.3%, driven by strong 3nm/5nm sales.</li><li>GPM expanded to 59.0%, surpassing BBG consensus/guidance of 58.5%/ 58.0%, due to higher utilization and productivity gains, partially offset by dilution of 3nm ramp-up.</li><li>By technology nodes, 3nm accounted for 26% of revenue in 4Q (vs. 20%/15% in 3Q24/4Q23). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

TSMC (TSM US, NR) reported a very solid 4Q24 result. Revenue was US$26.8bn (up 36.5% YoY/14.1% QoQ), beating BBG consensus/guidance by 3.9%/1.3%, driven by strong 3nm/5nm sales.GPM expanded to 59.0%, surpassing BBG consensus/guidance of 58.5%/ 58.0%, due to higher utilization and productivity gains, partially offset by dilution of 3nm ramp-up.By technology nodes, 3nm accounted for 26% of revenue in 4Q (vs. 20%/15% in 3Q24/4Q23). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - TSMC: Surging AI Demands Propelled Strong Results and Guidance

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Revenue reached USD$26.88 billion (compared to guidance of 26.1-26.9 billion USD) / NTD$868.46 billion  (+14.3% QoQ, +38.8% YoY); Gross margin at 59%,within the guided range of 57-59%.</li>
<li>Revenue expected to be in the range of USD$25-25.8 billion (-5.5% QoQ) impacted by seasonal factors, offset by AI demand. Gross margin: 57-59%.   </li>
<li>AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. With the advancement of AI technologies, the company anticipates mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators within a five-year period (2024-2029),</li>
</ul>


Revenue reached USD$26.88 billion (compared to guidance of 26.1-26.9 billion USD) / NTD$868.46 billion  (+14.3% QoQ, +38.8% YoY); Gross margin at 59%,within the guided range of 57-59%.
Revenue expected to be in the range of USD$25-25.8 billion (-5.5% QoQ) impacted by seasonal factors, offset by AI demand. Gross margin: 57-59%.   
AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. With the advancement of AI technologies, the company anticipates mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators within a five-year period (2024-2029),


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology

UMC will report results this week. Nvidia and TSMC partnership in silicon photonics to tackle AI's high energy problem.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. The Juggernaut Accelerates!

AI related demand ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025. 5 year growth CAGR 20%, >$100 billion...

William Keating

Semiconductors - TSMC: Surging AI Demands Propelled Strong Results and Guidance

TSMC (TSM US, NR) reported a very solid 4Q24 result. Revenue was US$26.8bn (up 36.5% YoY/14.1% QoQ), beating BBG consensus/guidance by 3.9%/1.3%,...

CMB International

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.

Company's revenue exceeded guidance at USD$26.88 billion, with AI revenue expected to double by 2025 and mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators in the...

Patrick Liao

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Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology

​UMC will report results this week. Nvidia and TSMC partnership in silicon photonics to tackle AI's high energy problem.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. The Juggernaut Accelerates!

AI related demand ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025. 5 year growth CAGR 20%, >$100 billion...

William Keating

Semiconductors - TSMC: Surging AI Demands Propelled Strong Results and Guidance

TSMC (TSM US, NR) reported a very solid 4Q24 result. Revenue was US$26.8bn (up 36.5% YoY/14.1% QoQ), beating BBG consensus/guidance by 3.9%/1.3%,...

CMB International

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.

​Company's revenue exceeded guidance at USD$26.88 billion, with AI revenue expected to double by 2025 and mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators in the...

Patrick Liao

UMC will report results this week. Nvidia and TSMC partnership in silicon photonics to tackle AI's high energy problem.

Company's revenue exceeded guidance at USD$26.88 billion, with AI revenue expected to double by 2025 and mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators in the...