Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>The US-China trade war has shaped a new trend: Advanced and Matured Technologies led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> respectively.</li>
<li>Notably, construction of semiconductor fabs in Singapore seems to be of lesser concern at the moment.</li>
<li>The emergence of AI offers new hope, not only for advanced semiconductor technology but also for lagging technologies.</li>
</ul>


The US-China trade war has shaped a new trend: Advanced and Matured Technologies led by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) respectively.
Notably, construction of semiconductor fabs in Singapore seems to be of lesser concern at the moment.
The emergence of AI offers new hope, not only for advanced semiconductor technology but also for lagging technologies.


The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +25.4% Premium; At Historical Highs, Good Level to Short the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: +2.1% Premium; Upper Level of Historical Range, Short Level</li>
<li>ASE: +5.4% Premium; Near-Term High However Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +25.4% Premium; At Historical Highs, Good Level to Short the Spread
UMC: +2.1% Premium; Upper Level of Historical Range, Short Level
ASE: +5.4% Premium; Near-Term High However Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

<ul>
<li>Rapidus vs. TSMC: Can Japan's Newcomer Compete in the 2nm Race?</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech </li>
<li>Hon Hai Pauses Nissan Pursuit Amid Honda Talks -- A Japanese Savior for Nissan is Likely But This Confirms Hon Hai's EV Ambitions Remain High</li>
</ul>


Rapidus vs. TSMC: Can Japan's Newcomer Compete in the 2nm Race?
Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech 
Hon Hai Pauses Nissan Pursuit Amid Honda Talks -- A Japanese Savior for Nissan is Likely But This Confirms Hon Hai's EV Ambitions Remain High


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus's Challenge Vs. TSMC for 2nm; Hon Hai Hunting for Automaker Acquisition

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>2025 could be thorny for Asian equities. The main themes - "Trump turmoil", a slower Fed and a "stronger for longer" Dollar and continued AI boom - have mixed implications.</li>
<li>China's policy articulation to support consumption departing from earlier supply-side measures, would be an important investment driver. India, though expensive, has a few "unloved" sectors that investors should focus on.</li>
<li>Based on our five investment themes, we identify five high quality liquid top picks in Asia - two listed in Hong Kong and one each in Taiwan, India and Korea. </li>
</ul>


2025 could be thorny for Asian equities. The main themes - "Trump turmoil", a slower Fed and a "stronger for longer" Dollar and continued AI boom - have mixed implications.
China's policy articulation to support consumption departing from earlier supply-side measures, would be an important investment driver. India, though expensive, has a few "unloved" sectors that investors should focus on.
Based on our five investment themes, we identify five high quality liquid top picks in Asia - two listed in Hong Kong and one each in Taiwan, India and Korea. 


Asian Equities: 2025 High Conviction – Five Themes, Five Top Picks

Founder, CEO, GSBR Research

Garvit Bhandari

Founder, CEO

Leading Provider of Equity and Investment Research

GSBR Research

We are an independent equity research provider focused on covering global markets. The aim of the research is to provide an unbiased view of the fundamentals of the company.

<ul>
<li>TSM is upbeat on the AI demand and remains confident that the cycle has just begun with long a runway for growth ahead.</li>
<li>TSM's primary competitors, Intel and Samsung Electronics, are currently facing challenges within their foundry operations, placing TSM in a favorable position to expand its market share</li>
<li>The Company anticipates a strong closing for FY:24 and has guided for nearly 35% YOY revenue growth in Q4 2024. We believe the momentum will continue in 2024E-2026E.</li>
</ul>


TSM is upbeat on the AI demand and remains confident that the cycle has just begun with long a runway for growth ahead.
TSM's primary competitors, Intel and Samsung Electronics, are currently facing challenges within their foundry operations, placing TSM in a favorable position to expand its market share
The Company anticipates a strong closing for FY:24 and has guided for nearly 35% YOY revenue growth in Q4 2024. We believe the momentum will continue in 2024E-2026E.


2025 High Conviction - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE: TSM, TPE: 2330)

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus's Challenge Vs. TSMC for 2nm; Hon Hai Hunting for Automaker Acquisition

Japan's newcomer Rapidus challenges TSMC in the 2nm race; Hon Hai's pursuit of Nissan pauses due to Nissan-Honda talks, but signals Hon Hai's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: 2025 High Conviction – Five Themes, Five Top Picks

2025 may be tricky for Asian equity with "Trump turmoil", slower Fed, strong Dollar. AI boom would help. Ditto China's consumption focus & India's...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

2025 High Conviction - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE: TSM, TPE: 2330)

TSM is well positioned to ride the AI tailwind as competitors face challenges. Strong revenue growth expected for Q4 2024 and beyond.

GSBR Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

​US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus's Challenge Vs. TSMC for 2nm; Hon Hai Hunting for Automaker Acquisition

​Japan's newcomer Rapidus challenges TSMC in the 2nm race; Hon Hai's pursuit of Nissan pauses due to Nissan-Honda talks, but signals Hon Hai's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: 2025 High Conviction – Five Themes, Five Top Picks

​2025 may be tricky for Asian equity with "Trump turmoil", slower Fed, strong Dollar. AI boom would help. Ditto China's consumption focus & India's...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

2025 High Conviction - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE: TSM, TPE: 2330)

​TSM is well positioned to ride the AI tailwind as competitors face challenges. Strong revenue growth expected for Q4 2024 and beyond.

GSBR Research

US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Japan's newcomer Rapidus challenges TSMC in the 2nm race; Hon Hai's pursuit of Nissan pauses due to Nissan-Honda talks, but signals Hon Hai's...

2025 may be tricky for Asian equity with "Trump turmoil", slower Fed, strong Dollar. AI boom would help. Ditto China's consumption focus & India's...

TSM is well positioned to ride the AI tailwind as competitors face challenges. Strong revenue growth expected for Q4 2024 and beyond.