Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue</li>
<li>AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading</li>
<li>H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.</li>
</ul>


Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.


AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Microsoft's focus on AI resulted in throwing themselves under the bus to keep the AI train going.</li><li>Microsoft's decision to maintain CapEx numbers for AI semis may not align with street expectations.</li><li>Microsoft's shift away from AI for small and medium businesses indicates uncertainty about the utility of AI for a large part of the customer base.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Microsoft's focus on AI resulted in throwing themselves under the bus to keep the AI train going.Microsoft's decision to maintain CapEx numbers for AI semis may not align with street expectations.Microsoft's shift away from AI for small and medium businesses indicates uncertainty about the utility of AI for a large part of the customer base.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 103: Earnings - MSFT, META, AAPL, INTC - The Custom ASIC Debate!

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>After 2 very poor quarters (revenue decline YoY), 2Q25 revenue increase 93% YoY, net income 137%. The painfully high volatility will not go away. </li>
<li>But Lasertec maintains its FY25 guidance which means that the blowout 2Q25 does not indicate higher growth</li>
<li>The expectation bubble should have completely deflated (SiC for EV, Intel, Samsung). The stock is trading at 18x, at the bottom of its trading range and valuations. Attractive.</li>
</ul>


After 2 very poor quarters (revenue decline YoY), 2Q25 revenue increase 93% YoY, net income 137%. The painfully high volatility will not go away. 
But Lasertec maintains its FY25 guidance which means that the blowout 2Q25 does not indicate higher growth
The expectation bubble should have completely deflated (SiC for EV, Intel, Samsung). The stock is trading at 18x, at the bottom of its trading range and valuations. Attractive.


Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus &amp; Dell</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix &amp; Micron's HBM DRAM Growth? </li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. </li>
</ul>


PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus &amp; Dell
Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix &amp; Micron's HBM DRAM Growth? 
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

<ul>
<li>Quantum computing's outlook is like Schrödinger’s cat: a varying mix of potential and challenges, with each breakthrough or setback collapsing possibilities and probabilities into a new, uncertain reality.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a>'s  "quantum supremacy" milestone shows quantum computing's transformative potential, but unresolved challenges despite decades of effort risks confining it to niche applications, limiting its broader impact.  </li>
<li>Among pure-plays <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ionq-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36838:1" rel="noopener">IonQ (IONQ US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/d-wave-quantum-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37745:1" rel="noopener">D-Wave Quantum (QBTS US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigetti-computing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37755:1" rel="noopener">Rigetti Computing (RGTI US)</a> stand out. IonQ's focus on high-fidelity, cloud and practical applications positions it particularly well.</li>
</ul>


Quantum computing's outlook is like Schrödinger’s cat: a varying mix of potential and challenges, with each breakthrough or setback collapsing possibilities and probabilities into a new, uncertain reality.

Alphabet (GOOG US)'s  "quantum supremacy" milestone shows quantum computing's transformative potential, but unresolved challenges despite decades of effort risks confining it to niche applications, limiting its broader impact.  
Among pure-plays IonQ (IONQ US) , D-Wave Quantum (QBTS US) , Rigetti Computing (RGTI US) stand out. IonQ's focus on high-fidelity, cloud and practical applications positions it particularly well.


Quantum Computing – The Future That’s Loading… and Not Loading

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Episode 103: Earnings - MSFT, META, AAPL, INTC - The Custom ASIC Debate!

Microsoft's financial numbers remained steady with a focus on AI investment and potential growth in other areas of the business.

The Circuit

Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Also: Performance of Snapdragon, AMD, and Intel in the PC monitor market; potential challenges for SK Hynix and Micron in the memory monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quantum Computing – The Future That’s Loading… and Not Loading

Quantum computing is like Schrödinger’s cat: a varying mix of potential and challenges. Each breakthrough or setback takes possibilities and...

Pyari Menon

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AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?

H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better,...

William Keating

Episode 103: Earnings - MSFT, META, AAPL, INTC - The Custom ASIC Debate!

Microsoft's financial numbers remained steady with a focus on AI investment and potential growth in other areas of the business.

The Circuit

Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

​Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Also: Performance of Snapdragon, AMD, and Intel in the PC monitor market; potential challenges for SK Hynix and Micron in the memory monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quantum Computing – The Future That’s Loading… and Not Loading

Quantum computing is like Schrödinger’s cat: a varying mix of potential and challenges. Each breakthrough or setback takes possibilities and...

Pyari Menon

Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...