Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA's data center revenues tripled YoY in CY 2023 and are on track to more than double in CY 2024</li>
<li>When Intel dominated the data centre and minted tens of billions annually, its customers benefited even more, minting hundreds of billions. </li>
<li>If NVIDIA's business model succeeds, its customers will succeed even more. This will make it extremely difficult for NVIDIA to remain the #1 global market cap stock. </li>
</ul>


NVIDIA's data center revenues tripled YoY in CY 2023 and are on track to more than double in CY 2024
When Intel dominated the data centre and minted tens of billions annually, its customers benefited even more, minting hundreds of billions. 
If NVIDIA's business model succeeds, its customers will succeed even more. This will make it extremely difficult for NVIDIA to remain the #1 global market cap stock. 


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Shares Fall With Nvidia... SK Hynix HBM DRAM with Global Unichip? Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues... Broadcom Developing an AI Chip with Bytedance</li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing </li>
<li>UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ. </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Shares Fall With Nvidia... SK Hynix HBM DRAM with Global Unichip? Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues... Broadcom Developing an AI Chip with Bytedance
TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing 
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC's 3nm Shortage: Capacity Filled Until 2026 Amid Surging Demand; Strategic Price Hikes Coming Soon</li>
<li>Top Gainers/Losers: Taiwan Tech Rallies Alongside TSMC, Apple, Nvidia, ARM Strength</li>
<li>Samsung Unveils Pathway to Catch Up With TSMC in the AI Foundry Race</li>
</ul>


TSMC's 3nm Shortage: Capacity Filled Until 2026 Amid Surging Demand; Strategic Price Hikes Coming Soon
Top Gainers/Losers: Taiwan Tech Rallies Alongside TSMC, Apple, Nvidia, ARM Strength
Samsung Unveils Pathway to Catch Up With TSMC in the AI Foundry Race


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 3nm Shortage & Upcoming Price Hikes; Samsung Unveils AI Catch-Up Plan

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>There is US$1bn to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> while there will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> will offset part of the potential passive buying from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and other similar ETFs.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) while there will be passive buying in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Intel Corp (INTC US). 
The selling in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will offset part of the potential passive buying from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and other similar ETFs.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion,  +15.8% YoY &amp; +1.1% MoM</li>
<li>WSTS now forecasts a 16.1% increase in 2024 semi sales, up from 13.1% in their previous forecast</li>
<li>We think the WSTS forecast for Memory is too high &amp; their forecast for Logic is too low. Excluding memory, the WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion,  +15.8% YoY &amp; +1.1% MoM
WSTS now forecasts a 16.1% increase in 2024 semi sales, up from 13.1% in their previous forecast
We think the WSTS forecast for Memory is too high &amp; their forecast for Logic is too low. Excluding memory, the WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth in 2024.


Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

NVIDIA's Conundrum...

When Intel dominated the data centre and minted tens of billions annually, its customers benefited even more, minting hundreds of billions. Will it...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

New Vietnam investments by Hon Hai and Wistron, Elan preparing for significant AI PC uptake in 4Q24/1H25, UMC's outlook increasingly optimistic for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 3nm Shortage & Upcoming Price Hikes; Samsung Unveils AI Catch-Up Plan

TSMC's 3nm capacity filled until 2026, strategic price hikes coming soon. Taiwan tech rallies alongside Nvidia, Apple, and ARM. Samsung unveils...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Capping changes in June result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.2% and in a one-way trade of US$1.16bn. There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion, +15.8% YoY & +1.1% MoM. Excluding memory, the latest WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth...

William Keating

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

NVIDIA's Conundrum...

When Intel dominated the data centre and minted tens of billions annually, its customers benefited even more, minting hundreds of billions. Will it...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

New Vietnam investments by Hon Hai and Wistron, Elan preparing for significant AI PC uptake in 4Q24/1H25, UMC's outlook increasingly optimistic for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 3nm Shortage & Upcoming Price Hikes; Samsung Unveils AI Catch-Up Plan

​TSMC's 3nm capacity filled until 2026, strategic price hikes coming soon. Taiwan tech rallies alongside Nvidia, Apple, and ARM. Samsung unveils...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Capping changes in June result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.2% and in a one-way trade of US$1.16bn. There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion, +15.8% YoY & +1.1% MoM. Excluding memory, the latest WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth...

William Keating

TSMC's 3nm capacity filled until 2026, strategic price hikes coming soon. Taiwan tech rallies alongside Nvidia, Apple, and ARM. Samsung unveils...