Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 21 - July 25.</li>
<li>
<strong>OVERSOLD</strong>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>
<strong>OVERBOUGHT</strong>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener"> KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 21 - July 25.

OVERSOLD: Meta (META US) , HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) , NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) 

OVERBOUGHT: Alphabet (GOOG US) , Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) , NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT) , CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) ,  KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 18th. The aggregated holding was USD636.7bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD758mln. We tabulates the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, Sksquare, SK Hynix, Naver.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 18th. The aggregated holding was USD636.7bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD758mln. We tabulates the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, Sksquare, SK Hynix, Naver.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 18th): Samsung Electronics, Sksquare, SK Hynix, Naver

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.</li>
<li>Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.</li>
<li>Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.</li>
</ul>


When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.
Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.
Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.


SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.</li>
<li>The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?</li>
<li>For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.</li>
</ul>


IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.
The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?
For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.


<ul>
<li>Jay Lee’s clean Supreme Court win may cool Samsung’s governance trade near term. With legal risks gone, there’s less urgency to push structural changes or shuffle shares now.</li>
<li>Samsung C&amp;T, a hotspot for governance spec flows, may see bids fade as urgency for structural shifts drops; longs on revamp bets might consider fading or shorting amid lingering risks.</li>
<li>Samsung Life gets relief as forced Elec share sales drop, supporting its stock. Samsung Elec stays neutral. Trade idea: Samsung Life long, Samsung C&amp;T short on cooled governance hopes.</li>
</ul>


Jay Lee’s clean Supreme Court win may cool Samsung’s governance trade near term. With legal risks gone, there’s less urgency to push structural changes or shuffle shares now.
Samsung C&amp;T, a hotspot for governance spec flows, may see bids fade as urgency for structural shifts drops; longs on revamp bets might consider fading or shorting amid lingering risks.
Samsung Life gets relief as forced Elec share sales drop, supporting its stock. Samsung Elec stays neutral. Trade idea: Samsung Life long, Samsung C&amp;T short on cooled governance hopes.


Samsung Jay Lee Cleared by Supreme Court — Market Reaction Could Flip From Consensus

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25

Our tactical models show Meta, NIFTY and HDFC Bank are oversold, while Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, CSI 300 Index, and KOSPI 200...

Nico Rosti

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 18th): Samsung Electronics, Sksquare, SK Hynix, Naver

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, Sksquare, SK Hynix, Naver.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

This post dives into the SK Hynix single-stock ETF set to launch in Q3—keep an eye out for a replay of the Samsung ETF playbook.

Sanghyun Park

Smartphone 2Q25: Boring Boring

2Q25 smartphone estimates show slight YoY increase in units, but market is flat or declining. Semiconductor firms see ASP increases, while...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Jay Lee Cleared by Supreme Court — Market Reaction Could Flip From Consensus

Samsung Jay Lee’s final legal overhang just got wiped clean with the Supreme Court’s not-guilty stamp — but the market move might actually play out...

Sanghyun Park

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25

Our tactical models show Meta, NIFTY and HDFC Bank are oversold, while Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, CSI 300 Index, and KOSPI 200...

Nico Rosti

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 18th): Samsung Electronics, Sksquare, SK Hynix, Naver

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, Sksquare, SK Hynix, Naver.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook

This post dives into the SK Hynix single-stock ETF set to launch in Q3—keep an eye out for a replay of the Samsung ETF playbook.

Sanghyun Park

Smartphone 2Q25: Boring Boring

​2Q25 smartphone estimates show slight YoY increase in units, but market is flat or declining. Semiconductor firms see ASP increases, while...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Jay Lee Cleared by Supreme Court — Market Reaction Could Flip From Consensus

Samsung Jay Lee’s final legal overhang just got wiped clean with the Supreme Court’s not-guilty stamp — but the market move might actually play out...

Sanghyun Park

2Q25 smartphone estimates show slight YoY increase in units, but market is flat or declining. Semiconductor firms see ASP increases, while...