Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If stock comp stays all in commons like last time, cancellation hits ~1.40% of SO in commons, 1.72% in prefs — setting up preferreds for relative outperformance.</li>
<li>If they cancel the full pool, Samsung Life + Fire’s stake hits 10.14%, forcing a ₩500B block — nearly 2x the ₩280B print back in Feb.</li>
<li>Again, odds are the overage hits the tape again — watch for a potential block print before the third leg wraps, like what played out in Feb.</li>
</ul>


If stock comp stays all in commons like last time, cancellation hits ~1.40% of SO in commons, 1.72% in prefs — setting up preferreds for relative outperformance.
If they cancel the full pool, Samsung Life + Fire’s stake hits 10.14%, forcing a ₩500B block — nearly 2x the ₩280B print back in Feb.
Again, odds are the overage hits the tape again — watch for a potential block print before the third leg wraps, like what played out in Feb.


Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.</li>
<li>Since our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-tactical-outlook-week-of-june-30-july-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week</a>, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. </li>
<li>Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), <strong>global markets may close the week down.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.
Since our Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. 
Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.



Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated holding was USD622.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD704mln. We tabulates the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Naver, Hyundai Rotem.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 4th. The aggregated holding was USD622.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD704mln. We tabulates the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Naver, Hyundai Rotem.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 4th): Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Naver, Hyundai Rotem

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. </li>
<li>The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. </li>
<li>That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. </li>
</ul>


Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. 
The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. 
That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. 


US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Samsung Said to Have Give Up Chasing TSMC at the Leading Edge of Chip Manufacturing</li>
<li>Xiaomi’s Tesla-Killer YU7 EV Surges in Orders -- TSMC Rides the Wave as Core Chip Supplier</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say (II)</li>
</ul>


Samsung Said to Have Give Up Chasing TSMC at the Leading Edge of Chip Manufacturing
Xiaomi’s Tesla-Killer YU7 EV Surges in Orders -- TSMC Rides the Wave as Core Chip Supplier
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say (II)


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Has Samsung Given Up Chasing TSMC?; Xiaomi Tesla-Killer EV Using Key TSMC Chips

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play

A deep dive into Samsung’s third-leg buyback: stock comp vs. cancellations, preferred share impacts, and potential block trades on the horizon.

Sanghyun Park

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 4th): Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Naver, Hyundai Rotem

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Naver, Hyundai Rotem.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Has Samsung Given Up Chasing TSMC?; Xiaomi Tesla-Killer EV Using Key TSMC Chips

Samsung has reportedly stopped trying to catch up to TSMC in chip manufacturing, while TSMC benefits from Xiaomi's surge in EV orders. The threat...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play

A deep dive into Samsung’s third-leg buyback: stock comp vs. cancellations, preferred share impacts, and potential block trades on the horizon.

Sanghyun Park

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

​Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 4th): Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Naver, Hyundai Rotem

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Naver, Hyundai Rotem.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

​US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Has Samsung Given Up Chasing TSMC?; Xiaomi Tesla-Killer EV Using Key TSMC Chips

​Samsung has reportedly stopped trying to catch up to TSMC in chip manufacturing, while TSMC benefits from Xiaomi's surge in EV orders. The threat...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Samsung has reportedly stopped trying to catch up to TSMC in chip manufacturing, while TSMC benefits from Xiaomi's surge in EV orders. The threat...