Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we as always zoom in on 5 of the things we look out for in global macro.</li><li>The battleground in macro for Q2/Q3 looks to be found in Asian FX, where the USD wrecking ball has increased risk of policy action in both China and Japan, which would have significant implications for global assets.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we as always zoom in on 5 of the things we look out for in global macro.The battleground in macro for Q2/Q3 looks to be found in Asian FX, where the USD wrecking ball has increased risk of policy action in both China and Japan, which would have significant implications for global assets.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro

5 Things We Watch – SOFR Probabilities, USDJPY, CNY Devaluation, IFO & Eurozone electricity

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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<ul>
<li>China's battered-down real estate sector and everything around it are craving for more rate cuts.</li>
<li>However, with foreign direct investment plummeting, a currency depreciation would further undermine China's status as an attractive investment destination.</li>
<li>To make things worse, the Powell pivot means any depreciation-like action will likely be supersized.</li>
</ul>


China's battered-down real estate sector and everything around it are craving for more rate cuts.
However, with foreign direct investment plummeting, a currency depreciation would further undermine China's status as an attractive investment destination.
To make things worse, the Powell pivot means any depreciation-like action will likely be supersized.


Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Calmness returned to pockets of cross asset markets last week. </li><li>The long end of the US yield curve got off its highs, crude got back under USD 90 and equities are left as the only truly hurt asset with SPX dipping under 5k for the first time since Feb. </li><li>Month-to-date, Energy remains the only sector in green, underlining what we have been saying since the inception of this newsletter</li></ul>

Calmness returned to pockets of cross asset markets last week. The long end of the US yield curve got off its highs, crude got back under USD 90 and equities are left as the only truly hurt asset with SPX dipping under 5k for the first time since Feb. Month-to-date, Energy remains the only sector in green, underlining what we have been saying since the inception of this newsletter

Energy Cable: Inflation starting to bite equities

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way.</li>
<li>One nugget, one chart – and only very few words!</li>
<li>Nugget 1: USDCNY decides risk assets from here. The USDCNY is the most critical global bellwether at this juncture and the path ahead for risk assets is dependent on the PBoC now.</li>
</ul>


Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way.
One nugget, one chart – and only very few words!
Nugget 1: USDCNY decides risk assets from here. The USDCNY is the most critical global bellwether at this juncture and the path ahead for risk assets is dependent on the PBoC now.


FX Nugget: Can the PBoC defy gravity? 7.30 watch

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Qingming holiday sending surpasses  2019 levels on an absolute and per capita basis</li>
<li>A further relaxation of housing measures spurs increased mortgage demand</li>
<li>Two steps forward, one step back -typical signs of a bottoming-out economy.</li>
</ul>


Qingming holiday sending surpasses  2019 levels on an absolute and per capita basis
A further relaxation of housing measures spurs increased mortgage demand
Two steps forward, one step back -typical signs of a bottoming-out economy.


Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

5 Things We Watch – SOFR Probabilities, USDJPY, CNY Devaluation, IFO & Eurozone electricity

Welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we as always zoom in on 5 of the things we look out for in global macro. The battleground in...

Steno Research

Is the Yuan Ripe for Devaluation?

Many await a Chinese currency depreciation, but with foreign investment and capital markets collapsing, things are complicated.

Jeroen Blokland

Energy Cable: Inflation starting to bite equities

Hi everyone and welcome to this week’s energy cable from a sunny and cold Copenhagen. If you haven’t yet, I’ll recommend that you read our update...

Steno Research

FX Nugget: Can the PBoC defy gravity? 7.30 watch

Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way. One nugget,...

Steno Research

Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally

Chinese consumer confidence rising as Qingming holiday spending surpasses 2019 levels, and increased mortgage demand seen due to housing measures...

Rikki Malik

5 Things We Watch – SOFR Probabilities, USDJPY, CNY Devaluation, IFO & Eurozone electricity

Welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we as always zoom in on 5 of the things we look out for in global macro. The battleground in...

Steno Research

Is the Yuan Ripe for Devaluation?

Many await a Chinese currency depreciation, but with foreign investment and capital markets collapsing, things are complicated.

Jeroen Blokland

Energy Cable: Inflation starting to bite equities

Hi everyone and welcome to this week’s energy cable from a sunny and cold Copenhagen. If you haven’t yet, I’ll recommend that you read our update...

Steno Research

FX Nugget: Can the PBoC defy gravity? 7.30 watch

Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way. One nugget,...

Steno Research

Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally

Chinese consumer confidence rising as ​Qingming holiday spending surpasses 2019 levels, and increased mortgage demand seen due to housing measures...

Rikki Malik

Chinese consumer confidence rising as Qingming holiday spending surpasses 2019 levels, and increased mortgage demand seen due to housing measures...