Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.</li>
</ul>



Context: Tencent (700 HK)is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.

Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.

Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.


Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sicc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36273:1" rel="noopener">SICC (688234 CH)</a> , a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$260m in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>In terms of market share, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



SICC (688234 CH) , a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$260m in its H-share listing.
In terms of market share, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.


SICC A/H Listing - Needs a Very Deep Discount

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$16+bn a day this past 5-day week. A comedown from the previous week. Net buying OK at just over +US$550mm/day. One-third of the previous week.</li>
<li>Last week's reco was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> up 9.8% on the week, and H/A spread contracted 6.2%.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$16+bn a day this past 5-day week. A comedown from the previous week. Net buying OK at just over +US$550mm/day. One-third of the previous week.
Last week's reco was Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) up 9.8% on the week, and H/A spread contracted 6.2%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, Inida ECM flows continued unabated with more deals being launched.</li>
<li>On the placements front as well, India saw over US$2bn worth of deals during the week.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Inida ECM flows continued unabated with more deals being launched.
On the placements front as well, India saw over US$2bn worth of deals during the week.


ECM Weekly (11 August 2025)-Bharti, Eternal, Paytm, LG CNS, Guming, JSW, Bluestone, SICC, Roborock

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will go to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.</li>
<li>There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).</li>
</ul>


There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Tencent (700 HK) reports tomorrow, Wednesday, 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK. The stock traded sideways over the past four days. Historic move on...

Gaudenz Schneider

SICC A/H Listing - Needs a Very Deep Discount

SICC (688234 CH) , a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$xxm in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH

SOUTHBOUND net flows continue positive. Gross flows down ~20%wow, NET flows -65%wow. ETFs sold bigly, rotation into Tech (whether INFO TECH or...

Travis Lundy

ECM Weekly (11 August 2025)-Bharti, Eternal, Paytm, LG CNS, Guming, JSW, Bluestone, SICC, Roborock

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There could be 3 constituent changes in Sep. A big FAF increase is forecast for Horizon Robotics. Plenty of capping changes. Put together, that...

Brian Freitas

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