HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>The best growth rates are at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC Intl (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The worst ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel Intl (308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin (2343 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. 
The best growth rates are at China National Building Material (3323 HK), CICC (3908 HK), Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK), Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), and SITC Intl (1308 HK). 
The worst ones are China Travel Intl (308 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Pacific Basin (2343 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 April 2025. In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Recent option trades show a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment. Calendar Spreads, Strangles, and Spreads using weekly options are explored.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning around Tencent’s earnings — providing actionable reference points for structuring trades or assessing market expectations.</li>
</ul>



Context: Tencent (700 HK) is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 April 2025. In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.

Highlights: Recent option trades show a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment. Calendar Spreads, Strangles, and Spreads using weekly options are explored.

Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning around Tencent’s earnings — providing actionable reference points for structuring trades or assessing market expectations.


Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>July’s $17.28 bn inflow through Southbound was almost triple of that of the May low ($5.85bn). The flows are now on track to recovering to the March-April peak of $20-22bn.</li>
<li>Investors continue buying dividend plays (CCB), sharp decliners (Meituan), policy beneficiaries (SMIC). Kuaishou and Alibaba were bought after being sold recently. Biotechnology (Innovent, Akeso) and insurance (ChinaLife) are new favorites.</li>
<li>Expensive consumers and consumer proxies (Pop Mart, Tencent, Xiaomi) continue to be sold. Last three months selling in Xiaomi and Tencent have almost wiped out their cumulative 12 month's buying.</li>
</ul>


July’s $17.28 bn inflow through Southbound was almost triple of that of the May low ($5.85bn). The flows are now on track to recovering to the March-April peak of $20-22bn.
Investors continue buying dividend plays (CCB), sharp decliners (Meituan), policy beneficiaries (SMIC). Kuaishou and Alibaba were bought after being sold recently. Biotechnology (Innovent, Akeso) and insurance (ChinaLife) are new favorites.
Expensive consumers and consumer proxies (Pop Mart, Tencent, Xiaomi) continue to be sold. Last three months selling in Xiaomi and Tencent have almost wiped out their cumulative 12 month's buying.


Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sicc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36273:1" rel="noopener">SICC (688234 CH)</a>, a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>In terms of market share, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the PHIP updates and talk about the likely A/H premium.</li>
</ul>



SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing.
In terms of market share, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.
In this note, we look at the PHIP updates and talk about the likely A/H premium.


SICC A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Second best in months. Net buying strong at just over +US$1.5bn a day.</li>
<li>FINANCIALS and HEALTHCARE and now INFO TECH stand out as net buys as a % of volume. TELECOMS a net sell. Again. </li>
<li>Hong Kong sharply underperformed mainland shares last week, SOUTHBOUND bought big, and despite higher AH Premia, Beautiful Skew continued.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Second best in months. Net buying strong at just over +US$1.5bn a day.
FINANCIALS and HEALTHCARE and now INFO TECH stand out as net buys as a % of volume. TELECOMS a net sell. Again. 
Hong Kong sharply underperformed mainland shares last week, SOUTHBOUND bought big, and despite higher AH Premia, Beautiful Skew continued.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Tencent (700 HK)

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings

An in-depth review of recent option trades on Tencent (700 HK), revealing how market participants are positioning ahead of the Q2 earnings...

Gaudenz Schneider

Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

July Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SICC A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

SOUTHBOUND net buying was HUGE as H-shares underperformed mainland shares reasonably dramatically over the week. Biggest week of net buying for...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tencent (700 HK): How Traders Are Positioning Into Earnings

​An in-depth review of recent option trades on Tencent (700 HK), revealing how market participants are positioning ahead of the Q2 earnings...

Gaudenz Schneider

Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

July ​Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SICC A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)

SOUTHBOUND net buying was HUGE as H-shares underperformed mainland shares reasonably dramatically over the week. Biggest week of net buying for...

Travis Lundy

An in-depth review of recent option trades on Tencent (700 HK), revealing how market participants are positioning ahead of the Q2 earnings...

July Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...