China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There has been renewed push for the German carmakers to enter the BEV market, at the expense of the PHEV market. </li>
<li>We believe it will benefit Chinese battery makers and PHEV makers; We, however, prefer to look at the issue through the lens of industry standardization.</li>
<li>Battery is the Intel and Advanced Driving Assistance System (ADAS) is the Windows of EV. Only China and US are in the ADAS ring.</li>
</ul>


There has been renewed push for the German carmakers to enter the BEV market, at the expense of the PHEV market. 
We believe it will benefit Chinese battery makers and PHEV makers; We, however, prefer to look at the issue through the lens of industry standardization.
Battery is the Intel and Advanced Driving Assistance System (ADAS) is the Windows of EV. Only China and US are in the ADAS ring.


[Blue Lotus Transportation Sector Update]: German Cars’ EV Push Belies Issue of Standardization

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We summarize the Aug 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Jul 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Aug retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>Discounts at dealers for most brands widened mildly MoM in Aug 2023, as the price war persists with more and more competitive product rollouts and raw-material price decline.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Aug 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Jul 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Aug retail sales volume data have not been released yet.Discounts at dealers for most brands widened mildly MoM in Aug 2023, as the price war persists with more and more competitive product rollouts and raw-material price decline.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Aug discounts widened slightly MoM

<ul>
<li>1810.HK/AAPL: Huawei Mate 60 supply chain order volume may have reached 15-17mn units (-/-)</li>
<li>BILI（-）： Shining! Umamusume: Pretty Derby"  is experiencing a sharp decline in popularity.</li>
<li>LI/XPEV/NIO/BYD/ TSLA/ Leap: MIIT Aims for 9mn NEV Sales in 2023 (+/+/+/+/+/+)</li>
</ul>


1810.HK/AAPL: Huawei Mate 60 supply chain order volume may have reached 15-17mn units (-/-)
BILI（-）： Shining! Umamusume: Pretty Derby"  is experiencing a sharp decline in popularity.
LI/XPEV/NIO/BYD/ TSLA/ Leap: MIIT Aims for 9mn NEV Sales in 2023 (+/+/+/+/+/+)


China TMT Update- 1810.HK/AAPL/BILI/LI/XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA/Leap-Huawei Mate 60/Pretty Derby/9mn NEV

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Vietnamese automaker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> made its public debut on 15th August via a SPAC deal which valued the company approx. US$23bn.</li>
<li>Shares opened US$22 per share and went up to $37.06 at the end of first-day. Share price hit a peak of $82.35, however, shares closed last at $34.71 per share.</li>
<li>Our forecasts and valuation for Vinfast suggest that the company’s shares are still overvalued even after falling more than 50% from its peak over the last few days.</li>
</ul>


Vietnamese automaker Vinfast (VFS US) made its public debut on 15th August via a SPAC deal which valued the company approx. US$23bn.
Shares opened US$22 per share and went up to $37.06 at the end of first-day. Share price hit a peak of $82.35, however, shares closed last at $34.71 per share.
Our forecasts and valuation for Vinfast suggest that the company’s shares are still overvalued even after falling more than 50% from its peak over the last few days.


Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. NIO’s 2Q23 earnings missed our prior forecast on lower GPM, higher R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses.</li><li>Its 3Q23 sales guidance may imply that the sales boost from the previous price cuts could be short-lived, or at least lower than some investors’ expectation.</li><li>More importantly, we have not seen its profitability turnaround signals, as losses from other revenue continue with the prior price cut and no signs to scale back its R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. NIO’s 2Q23 earnings missed our prior forecast on lower GPM, higher R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses.Its 3Q23 sales guidance may imply that the sales boost from the previous price cuts could be short-lived, or at least lower than some investors’ expectation.More importantly, we have not seen its profitability turnaround signals, as losses from other revenue continue with the prior price cut and no signs to scale back its R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Little Sign of Profit Turnaround After 2Q23 Miss

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

[Blue Lotus Transportation Sector Update]: German Cars’ EV Push Belies Issue of Standardization

There has been renewed push for the German carmakers to enter the BEV market, at the expense of the PHEV market. We believe it will benefit Chinese...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Auto Sector – Aug discounts widened slightly MoM

Discounts at dealers for most brands widened mildly MoM in Aug 2023, as the price war persists with more and more competitive product rollouts and...

CMB International

China TMT Update- 1810.HK/AAPL/BILI/LI/XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA/Leap-Huawei Mate 60/Pretty Derby/9mn NEV

Huawei Mate 60 supply chain order volume may have reached 15-17mn units; Shining! Umamusume: Pretty Derby" is experiencing a sharp decline; MIIT...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

After making a stellar debut, Vinfast's share price has dropped more than 50% over the last few days from its peak. Our forecasts and valuation...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Little Sign of Profit Turnaround After 2Q23 Miss

Its 3Q23 sales guidance may imply that the sales boost from the previous price cuts could be short-lived, or at least lower than some investors’...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Transportation Sector Update]: German Cars’ EV Push Belies Issue of Standardization

There has been renewed push for the German carmakers to enter the BEV market, at the expense of the PHEV market. We believe it will benefit Chinese...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Auto Sector – Aug discounts widened slightly MoM

Discounts at dealers for most brands widened mildly MoM in Aug 2023, as the price war persists with more and more competitive product rollouts and...

CMB International

China TMT Update- 1810.HK/AAPL/BILI/LI/XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA/Leap-Huawei Mate 60/Pretty Derby/9mn NEV

Huawei Mate 60 supply chain order volume may have reached 15-17mn units; Shining! Umamusume: Pretty Derby" is experiencing a sharp decline; MIIT...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

​After making a stellar debut, Vinfast's share price has dropped more than 50% over the last few days from its peak. Our forecasts and valuation...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Little Sign of Profit Turnaround After 2Q23 Miss

Its 3Q23 sales guidance may imply that the sales boost from the previous price cuts could be short-lived, or at least lower than some investors’...

CMB International

After making a stellar debut, Vinfast's share price has dropped more than 50% over the last few days from its peak. Our forecasts and valuation...