Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market welcomed TEL's 3Q results and new guidance, but sales, profits and margins continue to decline year-on-year.</li>
<li>An optimistic consensus sees a new cyclical high in the second half of the decade, but avoids the question of disengagement from China.</li>
<li>Inventories are at a record high. Valuations out to FY Mar-25 do not look attractive. </li>
</ul>


The market welcomed TEL's 3Q results and new guidance, but sales, profits and margins continue to decline year-on-year.
An optimistic consensus sees a new cyclical high in the second half of the decade, but avoids the question of disengagement from China.
Inventories are at a record high. Valuations out to FY Mar-25 do not look attractive. 


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): MAGIC Versus Reality

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Back to Macro US Equities Refocus on Rate rises; SPX breaches 4100 support; US 2Yr Yields hit 2.5% - need to watch this;  TESLA back as shares Px doubles! </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.62; New BOJ Governor nominees  by Feb 14; Apple/Google warned  by Japan FTC;  Earnings Festival: Positive TEL; Renesas; Nippon Steel </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Chart of the Day: Tokyo Electron(8035) share price has underperformed vs US Peer AMAT. BTE Results could close the Gap</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Back to Macro US Equities Refocus on Rate rises; SPX breaches 4100 support; US 2Yr Yields hit 2.5% - need to watch this;  TESLA back as shares Px doubles! 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.62; New BOJ Governor nominees  by Feb 14; Apple/Google warned  by Japan FTC;  Earnings Festival: Positive TEL; Renesas; Nippon Steel 
DAILY NUGGET. Chart of the Day: Tokyo Electron(8035) share price has underperformed vs US Peer AMAT. BTE Results could close the Gap


Good Morning Japan |Equity Losses Again on Rate Hike Refocus;Japan Earnings Deluge>500 Stocks on Tap

<ul>
<li>TEL 3QF23 operating profit -26% YoY to Y115b, beating analyst estimates</li>
<li>Full year operating profit guidance revised up Y546-&gt;Y580b, ahead of Street estimates</li>
<li>MAGIC - Metaverse, Autonomous mobility, Greentech, IoT, Communication Services - to drive long-term semicon demand</li>
</ul>


TEL 3QF23 operating profit -26% YoY to Y115b, beating analyst estimates
Full year operating profit guidance revised up Y546-&gt;Y580b, ahead of Street estimates
MAGIC - Metaverse, Autonomous mobility, Greentech, IoT, Communication Services - to drive long-term semicon demand


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>China Balloon Incident -- Negative news for China semiconductor restrictions; Up to 45nm may now be hobbled by Japan &amp; Netherlands joining.</li>
<li>Hon Hai -- January sales results strong, could help market look forward to Hon Hai's future growth.</li>
<li>Mediatek Results &amp; Upcoming Results -- Signs of slight smartphone stablization, also we highlight key Auto &amp; Industrial Semiconductor related results ahead.</li>
</ul>


China Balloon Incident -- Negative news for China semiconductor restrictions; Up to 45nm may now be hobbled by Japan &amp; Netherlands joining.
Hon Hai -- January sales results strong, could help market look forward to Hon Hai's future growth.
Mediatek Results &amp; Upcoming Results -- Signs of slight smartphone stablization, also we highlight key Auto &amp; Industrial Semiconductor related results ahead.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Balloon Incident Could Worsen China Restrictions & Key Earnings Readthroughs

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  US stocks rally on Fed paus(ing); Duration gets extended spurring +5% SOX move; AMD results provide comfort for Semis; Meta Beats !  Off to the races!</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Yen Stronger at USDJPY 129.02 post Fed;  BOJ shows commitment buying  $180 bn JGBs in Jan;   Earnings: Positive Keyence; Negative Kyocera; Disaster Sumi Chemicals. </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. Race for Talent. Japan retail major lifts wages, as (wage) hike momentum gathers. Issue for Japan is lack of workers !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  US stocks rally on Fed paus(ing); Duration gets extended spurring +5% SOX move; AMD results provide comfort for Semis; Meta Beats !  Off to the races!
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Yen Stronger at USDJPY 129.02 post Fed;  BOJ shows commitment buying  $180 bn JGBs in Jan;   Earnings: Positive Keyence; Negative Kyocera; Disaster Sumi Chemicals. 
DAILY NUGGETS. Race for Talent. Japan retail major lifts wages, as (wage) hike momentum gathers. Issue for Japan is lack of workers !


Good Morning Japan | Blast off ! "Disinflation Process Has Started";AMD Spurs Tech Rally; Meta Beats

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)