Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is a hybrid insight on the upcoming TOPIX FFW Review to be announced 7 October, and the situation around <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Shinsei Bank is in "limbo" post control-acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> and an attempt to go over 50% should be in the works. When is not known.</li>
<li>The TOPIX FFW Review should see ¥2.0-2.2trln of one-way flow, and amongst that flow, a large sell on Shinsei to increase Real World Float by 60+% and 25d of ADV.</li>
</ul>


This is a hybrid insight on the upcoming TOPIX FFW Review to be announced 7 October, and the situation around Shinsei Bank (8303 JP). 
Shinsei Bank is in "limbo" post control-acquisition by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) and an attempt to go over 50% should be in the works. When is not known.
The TOPIX FFW Review should see ¥2.0-2.2trln of one-way flow, and amongst that flow, a large sell on Shinsei to increase Real World Float by 60+% and 25d of ADV.


The October TOPIX FFW Review and Shinsei Bank (8303)'s Future Float

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in Chicago Skyway.</li>
<li>Over the past few months, ALX has garnered interest from IFM which has increased its stake to 19.99%. IFM had publicly opposed this acquisition.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamic and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in Chicago Skyway.
Over the past few months, ALX has garnered interest from IFM which has increased its stake to 19.99%. IFM had publicly opposed this acquisition.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamic and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Atlas Arteria Placement - How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC Inc (4483 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$235m, US$150m coming via an international offering and the rest via issuing shares to its largest shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a> . </li>
<li>The company plans to use the proceeds to repay some of its debt that was taken on earlier to acquire other companies.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



JMDC Inc (4483 JP) aims to raise around US$235m, US$150m coming via an international offering and the rest via issuing shares to its largest shareholder, Omron Corp (6645 JP) . 
The company plans to use the proceeds to repay some of its debt that was taken on earlier to acquire other companies.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


JMDC Placement - Lots to like but past Deals Have Been Mixed and It Is Expensive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> reported soft Q1 Tuesday on negative existing policy premium growth and higher (covid-related) underwriting claims costs. Guidance was unchanged but JPI also announced a buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback structure is designed to keep <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> under 50% to continue to abide by the strictures and goals of the Japan Postal Privatisation Act.</li>
<li>50% or more will be done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback Thursday morning 12 August. The rest will be bought on market. Impact is non-negligible. And JPI is cheap cheap cheap.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) reported soft Q1 Tuesday on negative existing policy premium growth and higher (covid-related) underwriting claims costs. Guidance was unchanged but JPI also announced a buyback.
The buyback structure is designed to keep Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) under 50% to continue to abide by the strictures and goals of the Japan Postal Privatisation Act.
50% or more will be done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback Thursday morning 12 August. The rest will be bought on market. Impact is non-negligible. And JPI is cheap cheap cheap.


Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) - Reading Between The Lines

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yamato Transport is Japan’s largest courier service, owning nearly 50% share, but even the biggest player needs to race to keep up with booming demand for e-commerce. </li>
<li>Over the past six years, it has gradually built an ecosystem of online tools and physical infrastructure to help vendors and customers, importing knowhow when needed.</li>
<li>So far, these measures have helped it stay on top of spiralling demand but there remain pressures.</li>
</ul>


Yamato Transport is Japan’s largest courier service, owning nearly 50% share, but even the biggest player needs to race to keep up with booming demand for e-commerce. 
Over the past six years, it has gradually built an ecosystem of online tools and physical infrastructure to help vendors and customers, importing knowhow when needed.
So far, these measures have helped it stay on top of spiralling demand but there remain pressures.


Japan

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

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Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)

The October TOPIX FFW Review and Shinsei Bank (8303)'s Future Float

HYBRID INSIGHT: Shinsei and the October TOPIX FFW Review. Shinsei is now somewhat cheap to largercap peers, but will see 25 days of volume to sell...

Travis Lundy

Atlas Arteria Placement - How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder

Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in...

Sumeet Singh

JMDC Placement - Lots to like but past Deals Have Been Mixed and It Is Expensive

JMDC Inc (4483 JP) aims to raise around US$235m, US$150m coming via an international offering and the rest via issuing shares to its largest...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) - Reading Between The Lines

Japan Post Insurance (7181) announced a ¥35bn buyback which at current price is 4.2%. JPH will sell half in a ToSTNeT-3 deal 12 Aug pre-open. You...

Travis Lundy

Yamato Builds Courier Ecosystem

Yamato Transport owns close to 50% of fulfilment in Japan and is so far managing to stay on top of demand through new ideas and a focus on reducing...

Michael Causton

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