Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Over FY21–25, IBIDEN has delivered strong revenue and profit growth, with operating income rising ~44% and EPS growing ~34% despite cyclical pressures.</li>
<li>The company commands a dominant ~70–85% market share in AI/server IC substrates, led by Nvidia demand, and is expanding capacity at Ono and Gama plants to sustain leadership.</li>
<li>With a 17–21% EPS CAGR forecast and trading at ~26× P/E—well below high-growth peers—IBIDEN offers a compelling blend of quality growth and relative valuation comfort.</li>
</ul>


Over FY21–25, IBIDEN has delivered strong revenue and profit growth, with operating income rising ~44% and EPS growing ~34% despite cyclical pressures.
The company commands a dominant ~70–85% market share in AI/server IC substrates, led by Nvidia demand, and is expanding capacity at Ono and Gama plants to sustain leadership.
With a 17–21% EPS CAGR forecast and trading at ~26× P/E—well below high-growth peers—IBIDEN offers a compelling blend of quality growth and relative valuation comfort.


IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cloud 2025 CapEx consensus increased 70% from January 2024 to the present day $365 billion</li>
<li>Google page views declined 8% since the launch of ChatGPT</li>
<li>Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors </li>
</ul>


Cloud 2025 CapEx consensus increased 70% from January 2024 to the present day $365 billion
Google page views declined 8% since the launch of ChatGPT
Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors 


Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s 1.4nm Technology Delay Highlights Potential That Intel Could End Up the Only Viable Alternative to TSMC -- Maintain Structural Long for TSMC</li>
<li>Micron Results Today Will Provide Insight Into Resilience of AI/HPC Equipment Demand</li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot </li>
</ul>


Samsung’s 1.4nm Technology Delay Highlights Potential That Intel Could End Up the Only Viable Alternative to TSMC -- Maintain Structural Long for TSMC
Micron Results Today Will Provide Insight Into Resilience of AI/HPC Equipment Demand
TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

<ul>
<li>Revenue grew steadily over five years, supported by demand for high-performance glass cloth used in advanced semiconductor packaging.</li>
<li>It controls a critical bottleneck in AI substrates and is expanding capacity with ¥80B capex through FY28.</li>
<li>EPS is set to rise 46% by FY28, with fwd PE at 9.3x and EV/EBITDA at 5.1x, suggesting scope for valuation re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Revenue grew steadily over five years, supported by demand for high-performance glass cloth used in advanced semiconductor packaging.
It controls a critical bottleneck in AI substrates and is expanding capacity with ¥80B capex through FY28.
EPS is set to rise 46% by FY28, with fwd PE at 9.3x and EV/EBITDA at 5.1x, suggesting scope for valuation re-rating.


Nittobo (3110 JP): Scarcity Premium in AI Substrates with Strong Earnings Visibility

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Nvidia, AMD launch a new GPU every 2 years. At each generation, higher performance manufacturing (TSMC) and HBM (higher density, higher speed, thinner layers). Hence, cost increase at each generation. </li>
<li>Price and volumes are negotiated 1 year ahead. TSMC, SK Hynix expect AI / HBM revenues to double in 2025. Expect another 50-60% in 2026. </li>
<li>Why HBM attracts less interest than Foundry (TSMC) or Design (AMD, AVGO, Nvidia)? Mostly, investor still think this is a cyclical business – HBM isn’t.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia, AMD launch a new GPU every 2 years. At each generation, higher performance manufacturing (TSMC) and HBM (higher density, higher speed, thinner layers). Hence, cost increase at each generation. 
Price and volumes are negotiated 1 year ahead. TSMC, SK Hynix expect AI / HBM revenues to double in 2025. Expect another 50-60% in 2026. 
Why HBM attracts less interest than Foundry (TSMC) or Design (AMD, AVGO, Nvidia)? Mostly, investor still think this is a cyclical business – HBM isn’t.


HBM Should Be as Attractive an Investment as Nvidia or TSMC but the Stocks Don’t Show That

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside

IBIDEN shows strong revenue and profit growth, dominating AI/server IC substrate market with room for expansion, offering quality growth at a...

Rahul Jain

Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

Samsung's 1.4nm technology delay could make Intel the only viable alternative to TSMC, while Micron's results will show the resilience of AI/HPC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nittobo (3110 JP): Scarcity Premium in AI Substrates with Strong Earnings Visibility

Steady revenue growth driven by demand for high-performance glass cloth in semiconductor packaging, with plans for expansion and potential for...

Rahul Jain

HBM Should Be as Attractive an Investment as Nvidia or TSMC but the Stocks Don’t Show That

TSMC and SK Hynix expect AI/HBM revenues to double by 2025. Investors overlook HBM's potential due to misconceptions about its cyclical nature.

Nicolas Baratte

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IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside

​IBIDEN shows strong revenue and profit growth, dominating AI/server IC substrate market with room for expansion, offering quality growth at a...

Rahul Jain

Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

​Samsung's 1.4nm technology delay could make Intel the only viable alternative to TSMC, while Micron's results will show the resilience of AI/HPC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nittobo (3110 JP): Scarcity Premium in AI Substrates with Strong Earnings Visibility

​Steady revenue growth driven by demand for high-performance glass cloth in semiconductor packaging, with plans for expansion and potential for...

Rahul Jain

HBM Should Be as Attractive an Investment as Nvidia or TSMC but the Stocks Don’t Show That

TSMC and SK Hynix expect AI/HBM revenues to double by 2025. Investors overlook HBM's potential due to misconceptions about its cyclical nature.

Nicolas Baratte

IBIDEN shows strong revenue and profit growth, dominating AI/server IC substrate market with room for expansion, offering quality growth at a...

Samsung's 1.4nm technology delay could make Intel the only viable alternative to TSMC, while Micron's results will show the resilience of AI/HPC...

Steady revenue growth driven by demand for high-performance glass cloth in semiconductor packaging, with plans for expansion and potential for...