Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?</li>
<li>TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position &amp; Positive for Semi Industry Capex </li>
<li>MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy </li>
</ul>


TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?
TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position &amp; Positive for Semi Industry Capex 
MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The US has entered the first leg of its bear market.  Administration officials have taken a "no pain, no gain" stance, with policy priorities taking precedence over market moves.</li>
<li>Sequencing problems start as tariffs and DOGE policies are enacted first, which negatively affect inflation and economic growth.  Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts a recession within a year.</li>
<li>Asian markets will be pulled down as part of the US risk-off trade.  Regarding relative performance, HK/China will benefit from the underweight exposure of foreign funds and better valuations.</li>
</ul>


The US has entered the first leg of its bear market.  Administration officials have taken a "no pain, no gain" stance, with policy priorities taking precedence over market moves.
Sequencing problems start as tariffs and DOGE policies are enacted first, which negatively affect inflation and economic growth.  Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts a recession within a year.
Asian markets will be pulled down as part of the US risk-off trade.  Regarding relative performance, HK/China will benefit from the underweight exposure of foreign funds and better valuations.


ASIA: Portfolio Positioning During US Bear Market

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$16.3bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P500 INDEX</a> and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.</li>
<li>The flows will change over the next week as stock prices move around, and final capping is done after the close on 14 March.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$16.3bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
The Select Sector index trackers and S&amp;P500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy the adds to the S&amp;P500 INDEX and sell the deletes, further increasing flow for the stocks.
The flows will change over the next week as stock prices move around, and final capping is done after the close on 14 March.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$16.3bn Trade; Big Impact for EXE, TKO

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The weak USD, as US growth peaks and yields decline, is helping  international markets</li>
<li>Can Hong Kong and China stock markets decouple from a US bear market?</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The weak USD, as US growth peaks and yields decline, is helping  international markets
Can Hong Kong and China stock markets decouple from a US bear market?


Overview #18 - Tipping Point Arrived for Major Trend Changes?

<ul>
<li>TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.</li>
<li>Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.
Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.
Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.


TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASIA: Portfolio Positioning During US Bear Market

The first leg of the US bear market will pull global markets down as part of a risk-off trade. Asian markets will need to navigate a minefield of...

David Mudd

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$16.3bn Trade; Big Impact for EXE, TKO

Constituent changes to the S&P500 and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$16.3bn for the Select Sector. ECE, DASH, AMZN, TKO, TSLA,...

Brian Freitas

Overview #18 - Tipping Point Arrived for Major Trend Changes?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Can HK/China stockmarkets decouple from a US bear market

Rikki Malik

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

​TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASIA: Portfolio Positioning During US Bear Market

The first leg of the US bear market will pull global markets down as part of a risk-off trade. Asian markets will need to navigate a minefield of...

David Mudd

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$16.3bn Trade; Big Impact for EXE, TKO

Constituent changes to the S&P500 and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$16.3bn for the Select Sector. ECE, DASH, AMZN, TKO, TSLA,...

Brian Freitas

Overview #18 - Tipping Point Arrived for Major Trend Changes?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Can HK/China stockmarkets decouple from a US bear market

Rikki Malik

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

​TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...