HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. </li>
<li>We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.</li>
<li>Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> will fare better than others.</li>
</ul>


Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. 
We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.
Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think SITC International (1308 HK) and Sinotrans (598 HK) will fare better than others.


China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>Elon Musk sold billions more of Tesla near 2-yr lows, signaling he &amp; Twitter need serious cash NOW. </li>
<li>His banks know why—they hold Elon's margin loans and they get Twitter's financial info every month.</li>
<li>And the banks want Elon to buy back from them Twitter's riskiest LBO debt, which they can't sell because of how fast he is destroying Twitter's business and prospects.</li>
</ul>


Elon Musk sold billions more of Tesla near 2-yr lows, signaling he &amp; Twitter need serious cash NOW. 
His banks know why—they hold Elon's margin loans and they get Twitter's financial info every month.
And the banks want Elon to buy back from them Twitter's riskiest LBO debt, which they can't sell because of how fast he is destroying Twitter's business and prospects.


Elon Sold More Falling Tesla Stock. Margin Calls? Twitter Failing? Bank Demands? Likely All Three.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

Covid-19: Covid chaos at China’s hospitals as stringent control policy eases
Yuan: Xi seeks yuan settlement of China energy trades with Gulf states
Bonds: China to roll over $108 billion of special sovereign bonds

Covid-19: Covid chaos at China’s hospitals as stringent control policy eases
Yuan: Xi seeks yuan settlement of China energy trades with Gulf states
Bonds: China to roll over $108 billion of special sovereign bonds

CX Daily: Covid Chaos at China’s Hospitals as Stringent Control Policy Eases

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast Auto (1905332D VN)</a>  is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming US IPO.</li>
<li>VinFast is a full-scale mobility platform focused primarily on designing and manufacturing premium EVs, electric scooters and electric buses.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



VinFast Auto (1905332D VN)  is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming US IPO.
VinFast is a full-scale mobility platform focused primarily on designing and manufacturing premium EVs, electric scooters and electric buses.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


VinFast Auto Pre-IPO - The Positives - Aiming High...

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai's Zhengzhou iPhone plant to return to full production? Shares pop</li>
<li>Nanya Tech shares worst performers last week - We remain near-term negative</li>
<li>Intel &amp; TSMC trade flattish last week -- Intel currently at UBS's TMT conference</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai's Zhengzhou iPhone plant to return to full production? Shares pop
Nanya Tech shares worst performers last week - We remain near-term negative
Intel &amp; TSMC trade flattish last week -- Intel currently at UBS's TMT conference


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai IPhone Plant Recovery, Nanya Slumps, Intel Foundry Potential in 2023

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

We are cautious on China's export outlook in 2023, and operating environment of port, container shipping and logistics sectors will be challenging....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Elon Sold More Falling Tesla Stock. Margin Calls? Twitter Failing? Bank Demands? Likely All Three.

Elon sold billions more of Tesla near 2-yr lows, signaling he & Twitter need serious cash NOW. His banks know why & they want Elon to buy back from...

Vicki Bryan

CX Daily: Covid Chaos at China’s Hospitals as Stringent Control Policy Eases

Covid chaos at China’s hospitals as stringent control policy eases. Xi seeks yuan settlement of China energy trades with Gulf states. China to roll...

Caixin Global

VinFast Auto Pre-IPO - The Positives - Aiming High...

VinFast Auto (1905332D VN) is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai IPhone Plant Recovery, Nanya Slumps, Intel Foundry Potential in 2023

Intel & TSMC trade flattish last week -- Intel currently at UBS's TMT conference. Reuters reports that Hon Hai's Zhengzhou facility is recovering.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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