Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Past Peak Rates - Equities continue upward trajectory;  9/11 SPX sectors  up as Tech leads; Yields down post weaker than expected ADP Employment; More China Measures for Economy </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member: BOJ May normalize in 2024; Govt Extends Gasoline Subsidy Program</li>
<li>JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Break Decades-Old Records, being fueled foreign buying spurred by weaker yen. Potential Boon for Tokyo Focused Developers-IF they can secure labor and keep GPM </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Past Peak Rates - Equities continue upward trajectory;  9/11 SPX sectors  up as Tech leads; Yields down post weaker than expected ADP Employment; More China Measures for Economy 
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member: BOJ May normalize in 2024; Govt Extends Gasoline Subsidy Program
JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Break Decades-Old Records, being fueled foreign buying spurred by weaker yen. Potential Boon for Tokyo Focused Developers-IF they can secure labor and keep GPM 


Ohayo Japan|"Past Peak Rate" View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Reach Record High

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: Equity Rally Continues SPX +1.5% with all Sectors Up; Tech Surges -&gt;NDX100 +2.2%;  China Banks Cuts Mortgage rates to shore up economy;  BitCoin lease on life w/US Court Ruling</li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen's buying power at 53 year low; Japan's jobless rate ticks up-risk for higher wages; SDF Head says Military Capabilities Inadequate</li>
<li>JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Aims to Dominate India with Manufacturing Expansion. With more locally manufactured products, Fasty will be better able to grow share in India. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: Equity Rally Continues SPX +1.5% with all Sectors Up; Tech Surges -&gt;NDX100 +2.2%;  China Banks Cuts Mortgage rates to shore up economy;  BitCoin lease on life w/US Court Ruling
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen's buying power at 53 year low; Japan's jobless rate ticks up-risk for higher wages; SDF Head says Military Capabilities Inadequate
JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Aims to Dominate India with Manufacturing Expansion. With more locally manufactured products, Fasty will be better able to grow share in India. 


Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  US Equities rise for the first week in four; Jackson Hole: Powell leaves open possibility of further hikes/ECB's Largarde strikes hawkish tone for EU;  China's Economic Pain to Continue</li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% Premium vs Cash; USDJPY 146.4; BOJ's Ueda at Jackson Hole says Japan inflation below target; Kishida's Approval rating improves; Japan to double EV Charging Stations. </li>
<li>JAPAN X: Japan Post Bank's Trillion Yen Boost set to propel the Japan start up ecosystem to new highs - while creating a new revenue stream for the bank.  </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  US Equities rise for the first week in four; Jackson Hole: Powell leaves open possibility of further hikes/ECB's Largarde strikes hawkish tone for EU;  China's Economic Pain to Continue
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% Premium vs Cash; USDJPY 146.4; BOJ's Ueda at Jackson Hole says Japan inflation below target; Kishida's Approval rating improves; Japan to double EV Charging Stations. 
JAPAN X: Japan Post Bank's Trillion Yen Boost set to propel the Japan start up ecosystem to new highs - while creating a new revenue stream for the bank.  


Ohayo Japan|US Equities Gain Post Powell's Speech; JAPAN X: JP Bank's $7bn Boost for Local Startups

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a>’ US IPO.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In this note, we compare its recent performance versus its performance prior to its privatisation and discuss the changes since then.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings’ US IPO.
ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In this note, we compare its recent performance versus its performance prior to its privatisation and discuss the changes since then.


ARM Holdings Pre-IPO - Pre-Privatisation to Pre-Listing Changes - Slower Growth, Lower Margins

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Ohayo Japan|"Past Peak Rate" View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo's Condo Prices Reach Record High

Weaker ADP Employment drives Past Peak Rate Bid; NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member:...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India

US stocks rally; Tech surges. NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen's buying power at 53 year low; Japan's jobless rate ticks up; SDF Head...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan|US Equities Gain Post Powell's Speech; JAPAN X: JP Bank's $7bn Boost for Local Startups

US Market post first gain in 4 weeks; Fed/ECB heads strike hawkish tone at Jackson Hole; NKY Futures +0.7% Premium vs Cash; USDJPY 146.4; BOJ's...

Mark Chadwick

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

ARM Holdings Pre-IPO - Pre-Privatisation to Pre-Listing Changes - Slower Growth, Lower Margins

Softbank Group aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings’ US IPO. In this note, we compare its recent...

Sumeet Singh

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