Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>TSI Holdings has long had a lot of cash and securities but a dearth of income. It's still that way.</li>
<li>Earnings were pretty good, but forecasts disappointing. The MTP is much more aggressive. </li>
<li>The company has an EV/Revenue of 0.03x and EV/EBITDA of 0.5x. THEN it has a lot more interesting stuff hidden away. This could double or more in two years.</li>
</ul>


TSI Holdings has long had a lot of cash and securities but a dearth of income. It's still that way.
Earnings were pretty good, but forecasts disappointing. The MTP is much more aggressive. 
The company has an EV/Revenue of 0.03x and EV/EBITDA of 0.5x. THEN it has a lot more interesting stuff hidden away. This could double or more in two years.


TSI Holdings (3608) - That Old Gem - Lots of Visible Cash, and Lots More Invisible Cash

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Even though 2QFY22 results were broadly in line with consensus, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>’s share price rose 8.8% as markets expected the worst amidst the Russian controversy and Shanghai lockdowns.</li>
<li>However, this price movement seems unwarranted given the impact of Shanghai lockdowns could only be seen in the 3QFY22 financial statements.</li>
<li>During earnings, FR introduced North America &amp; Europe as new growth drivers to replace the declining Chinese market. But we are not convinced that they are up to the task.</li>
</ul>


Even though 2QFY22 results were broadly in line with consensus, Fast Retailing (9983 JP)’s share price rose 8.8% as markets expected the worst amidst the Russian controversy and Shanghai lockdowns.
However, this price movement seems unwarranted given the impact of Shanghai lockdowns could only be seen in the 3QFY22 financial statements.
During earnings, FR introduced North America &amp; Europe as new growth drivers to replace the declining Chinese market. But we are not convinced that they are up to the task.


Fast Retailing: New Growth Pillar May Not Be Strong Enough to Support the Weight of Valuation

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Interim results were surprisingly strong considering the headwinds from China and rising costs</li>
<li>2H guidance looks optimistic. China remains a key risk and we still see risks to the gross margin</li>
<li>The "R" word. Rising inflation, Rising Interest rates = Recession. Probably not good for consumers and certainly not good for high stock multiples</li>
</ul>


Interim results were surprisingly strong considering the headwinds from China and rising costs
2H guidance looks optimistic. China remains a key risk and we still see risks to the gross margin
The "R" word. Rising inflation, Rising Interest rates = Recession. Probably not good for consumers and certainly not good for high stock multiples


Fast Retailing (9983) - Summer Is the Time for Shorts

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PHC Holding had raised US$645m in its Japan IPO in Oct 2021, after the deal was downsized and priced at the low-end.</li>
<li>PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management; Healthcare Services; and Diagnosis/Life Science.</li>
<li>The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup today on 11th Apr 2022. Its largest shareholder is KKR, who still owns a 39% stake in the company. </li>
</ul>


PHC Holding had raised US$645m in its Japan IPO in Oct 2021, after the deal was downsized and priced at the low-end.
PHC is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of healthcare devices and services. The company has three main segments: Diabetes Management; Healthcare Services; and Diagnosis/Life Science.
The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup today on 11th Apr 2022. Its largest shareholder is KKR, who still owns a 39% stake in the company. 


PHC Holdings IPO Lock-Up - Stock Might Be Cheap but It’s Stuck with a US$1bn Overhang

<ul>
<li>We estimate that China accounts for almost 40% of Fast Retailing's earnings. This growth engine is stalling</li>
<li>The market has yet to discount these risks, despite warnings from H&amp;M</li>
<li>The stock is down 5% YTD, but trades at an 80% premium to global peers</li>
</ul>


We estimate that China accounts for almost 40% of Fast Retailing's earnings. This growth engine is stalling
The market has yet to discount these risks, despite warnings from H&amp;M
The stock is down 5% YTD, but trades at an 80% premium to global peers


Fast Retailing Faces a Severe Test from Beijing to Moscow

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

TSI Holdings (3608) - That Old Gem - Lots of Visible Cash, and Lots More Invisible Cash

TSI Holdings is a long-time value name. It has a bigger portfolio, still has low ROE high CF, and LOTS of financial assets. At 0.03x EV/rev +...

Travis Lundy

Fast Retailing: New Growth Pillar May Not Be Strong Enough to Support the Weight of Valuation

Fast Retailing introduced North America & Europe as new growth drivers to replace the declining Chinese market. But we are not convinced that they...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Fast Retailing (9983) - Summer Is the Time for Shorts

The "R" word. Rising inflation, Rising Interest rates => Recession. Really not good for consumers and probably not good for high stock multiples

Mark Chadwick

PHC Holdings IPO Lock-Up - Stock Might Be Cheap but It’s Stuck with a US$1bn Overhang

PHC Holding had raised US$645m in its Japan IPO in Oct 2021, after the deal was downsized and priced at the low-end. The lock-up on pre-IPO...

Sumeet Singh

Fast Retailing Faces a Severe Test from Beijing to Moscow

Despite severe headwinds from Fast Retailing's key Chinese market, the stock is holding up well. Russia and higher input costs are also concerns....

Mark Chadwick

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