Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.cmlviz.com/stocks/LDOC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LinkDoc Technology</a> plans to offer 10.8 million ADS shares priced at between $17.50 And $19.50 per ADS. If the underwriters exercise their option, there will be 12.45 million shares of ADS. At the high end of the IPO price range, the company will raise $243 million, which is lower than the $500 million that was expected to be raised as mentioned in the media in the past several weeks. This is a reflection of the volatile Chinese IPO environment in 2021.</p><p><a href="https://www.cmlviz.com/stocks/LDOC/news/b/2021/07/01/linkdoc-technology-ltd-sees-u-s-ipo-of-10-8-mln-adss-expected-to-be-priced-between-17-50-and-19-50-per-ads---filing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health</a>, Lake Bleu Prime Healthcare Master Fund, and UBS Asset Management have indicated to buy about $25 million each of ADS in this IPO at the IPO price. </p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Our base case valuation of LinkDoc Technology suggests an implied market cap of $2.0 billion or $22.3 per share. At the mid point of the IPO price range ($18.5), our base case valuation suggests a 20% upside. Given the moderate upside, we have a Positive rating on this IPO.</p>
<p>Our base case valuation is based on 7.0x EV/S using our estimated sales of 1,827 million RMB. Our base case valuation multiple of 7.0x EV/S is based on a 20% discount to the comps' average EV/S multiple in 2022. We used a 20% discount to the comps' average valuation multiple mainly due to lower expected sales and lower operating margins for LinkDoc versus the comps.</p>
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LinkDoc Technology plans to offer 10.8 million ADS shares priced at between $17.50 And $19.50 per ADS. If the underwriters exercise their option, there will be 12.45 million shares of ADS. At the high end of the IPO price range, the company will raise $243 million, which is lower than the $500 million that was expected to be raised as mentioned in the media in the past several weeks. This is a reflection of the volatile Chinese IPO environment in 2021.Alibaba Health, Lake Bleu Prime Healthcare Master Fund, and UBS Asset Management have indicated to buy about $25 million each of ADS in this IPO at the IPO price. 
Our base case valuation of LinkDoc Technology suggests an implied market cap of $2.0 billion or $22.3 per share. At the mid point of the IPO price range ($18.5), our base case valuation suggests a 20% upside. Given the moderate upside, we have a Positive rating on this IPO.
Our base case valuation is based on 7.0x EV/S using our estimated sales of 1,827 million RMB. Our base case valuation multiple of 7.0x EV/S is based on a 20% discount to the comps' average EV/S multiple in 2022. We used a 20% discount to the comps' average valuation multiple mainly due to lower expected sales and lower operating margins for LinkDoc versus the comps.


LinkDoc Technology IPO Valuation Analysis

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linkdoc-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33499:1" rel="noopener">LinkDoc (LDOC US)</a> is a Chinese healthtech company. LinkDoc consists of LinkCare, a digital care platform for patients with critical diseases, LinkData, an AI-enabled curation system for longitudinal medical data, and LinkSolutions, a data-driven precision life sciences solution platform that helps life sciences companies accelerate clinical research and real-world adoption.</div><div></div><p>LinkDoc is backed by Temasek (11.7% of outstanding shares), NEA Partners (10.2%), China Broadband Capital (9.2%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a> (8.4%) and MBK Partners (6.3%).</p><div><p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $17.50-19.50 per ADS, LinkDoc will have a market cap of $1.6 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $182.7 million, below the rumoured $500 million raise target. LinkDoc has received $115 million indications of interest (57.4% of the ADSs being offered) from existing shareholders (Alibaba Health, Lake Bleu, Temasek) worth $60 million and new investors (UBS Asset Management, Hudson Bay, Sage Partners) worth $55 million. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linkdoc-technology-ipo-initiation-building-with-big-data" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53384" rel="noopener">LinkDoc Technology IPO Initiation: Building with Big Data</a>, we opined that LinkDoc is a play on China’s healthcare industry rising spend on IT and data services. LinkDoc focuses on oncology and has established the largest online oncology physician and patient engagement community in China. LinkDoc is benefiting from the trend of big data solutions adoption in healthcare by delivering solid growth and steadily reducing loss margins. Overall, we believe that LinkDoc is an attractive play on these market dynamics.</p></div><div>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our relative valuation analysis suggests that LinkDoc is fairly valued at the low-end of the IPO price range. Consequently, we are inclined to sit on the sidelines awaiting a more attractive entry point.   </p></div>
<div><p><strong><em>For readers interested in IPOs of upcoming healthtech companies, we highlight: </em></strong></p></div>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-initiation-what-s-up-doc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53683" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?</a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53879" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights</a> </p>
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<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/we-doctor-ipo-initiation-patient-revolution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50009" rel="noopener">We Doctor IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution</a> </p></div>
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LinkDoc (LDOC US) is a Chinese healthtech company. LinkDoc consists of LinkCare, a digital care platform for patients with critical diseases, LinkData, an AI-enabled curation system for longitudinal medical data, and LinkSolutions, a data-driven precision life sciences solution platform that helps life sciences companies accelerate clinical research and real-world adoption.LinkDoc is backed by Temasek (11.7% of outstanding shares), NEA Partners (10.2%), China Broadband Capital (9.2%), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK) (8.4%) and MBK Partners (6.3%).At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $17.50-19.50 per ADS, LinkDoc will have a market cap of $1.6 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $182.7 million, below the rumoured $500 million raise target. LinkDoc has received $115 million indications of interest (57.4% of the ADSs being offered) from existing shareholders (Alibaba Health, Lake Bleu, Temasek) worth $60 million and new investors (UBS Asset Management, Hudson Bay, Sage Partners) worth $55 million. In LinkDoc Technology IPO Initiation: Building with Big Data, we opined that LinkDoc is a play on China’s healthcare industry rising spend on IT and data services. LinkDoc focuses on oncology and has established the largest online oncology physician and patient engagement community in China. LinkDoc is benefiting from the trend of big data solutions adoption in healthcare by delivering solid growth and steadily reducing loss margins. Overall, we believe that LinkDoc is an attractive play on these market dynamics.
Our relative valuation analysis suggests that LinkDoc is fairly valued at the low-end of the IPO price range. Consequently, we are inclined to sit on the sidelines awaiting a more attractive entry point.   
For readers interested in IPOs of upcoming healthtech companies, we highlight: 

Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc? 
Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights 

We Doctor IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution 


LinkDoc Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

Medlive Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a> is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.</p></div><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$24.10-27.20 per share, Medlive will have a market cap of HK$16,633.2-18,772.8 ($2.1-2.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$3,770.8 million ($486 million). </p></div><div><p>Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for $220 million of the offer shares (42.93% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price). The cornerstone investors include Fidelity Management &amp; Research, FIL Investment Management, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, GIC, Matthews Funds, Qiming Venture Partners and OrbiMed Funds.</p></div><div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-initiation-what-s-up-doc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53683" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?</a>, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. </p>
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<p>Arguably, the closest peer is Doximity (DOCS US), which listed on 24 June 2021. Doximity had a stonking debut with its shares trading currently 1.2x its IPO price, suggesting strong investor sentiment on the niche physician "social-networking" market monetised primarily through advertising.</p>
<p>Our base-case DCF valuation is HK$31.80 per share, which is 17% above the high-point of the IPO price range. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.</p>
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Medlive Technology (2192 HK) is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.At the proposed IPO price range of HK$24.10-27.20 per share, Medlive will have a market cap of HK$16,633.2-18,772.8 ($2.1-2.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$3,770.8 million ($486 million). Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for $220 million of the offer shares (42.93% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price). The cornerstone investors include Fidelity Management &amp; Research, FIL Investment Management, Tencent (700 HK), GIC, Matthews Funds, Qiming Venture Partners and OrbiMed Funds.
In Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. 

Arguably, the closest peer is Doximity (DOCS US), which listed on 24 June 2021. Doximity had a stonking debut with its shares trading currently 1.2x its IPO price, suggesting strong investor sentiment on the niche physician "social-networking" market monetised primarily through advertising.
Our base-case DCF valuation is HK$31.80 per share, which is 17% above the high-point of the IPO price range. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.



Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p>Medlive is the largest medical content platform for physicians in China. The company launched book building to raise up to USD 543m via a Hong Kong listing.</p><p>In our previous note, we discuss that the company has built a great user base of licensed physicians in China, which is rare among internet healthcare companies. Having said that, the monetization from its user base is low. While the near term revenue growth will still come from healthcare marketing services, the company is expanding into the digital chronic disease management segment which is still an underpenetrated market but it is in an infant stage of development without much of a track record. The company has robust financials but the size is small compared to other internet healthcare players. The company's management team is just OK. Given that it is profitable and the main shareholder M3 is listed, there weren't many rounds of capital raising and hence it lacks pre-IPO investors. </p><p>In this note, we provide an update for the book building. We think there's valuation upside from both existing businesses and new business.</p>

Medlive is the largest medical content platform for physicians in China. The company launched book building to raise up to USD 543m via a Hong Kong listing.In our previous note, we discuss that the company has built a great user base of licensed physicians in China, which is rare among internet healthcare companies. Having said that, the monetization from its user base is low. While the near term revenue growth will still come from healthcare marketing services, the company is expanding into the digital chronic disease management segment which is still an underpenetrated market but it is in an infant stage of development without much of a track record. The company has robust financials but the size is small compared to other internet healthcare players. The company's management team is just OK. Given that it is profitable and the main shareholder M3 is listed, there weren't many rounds of capital raising and hence it lacks pre-IPO investors. In this note, we provide an update for the book building. We think there's valuation upside from both existing businesses and new business.

Medlive (医脉通) IPO: Candidate for Multi-Bagger

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linkdoc-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33499:1" rel="noopener">LinkDoc (LDOC US)</a> is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming U.S. IPO.</p></div><div><p>LinkDoc is a data-driven and AI-enabled healthcare technology company. The company operates data-driven digital infrastructures to serve different stakeholders in the healthcare ecosystem. The company has a focus on oncology with its patient care centres providing oncology patients with continuous care.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we look at LinkDoc’s SOTP valuation. </p></div><div><p>We have previously covered the IPO in: </p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linkdoc-pre-ipo-intricately-embedded-in-the-oncology-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53324" rel="noopener">LinkDoc (零氪科技) Pre-IPO - Intricately Embedded in the Oncology Industry</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linkdoc-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-a-niche-that-doesn-t-give-a-clear-advantage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53723" rel="noopener">LinkDoc (零氪科技) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - A Niche that Doesn’t Give a Clear Advantage</a> </li>
</ul></div>

LinkDoc (LDOC US) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming U.S. IPO.LinkDoc is a data-driven and AI-enabled healthcare technology company. The company operates data-driven digital infrastructures to serve different stakeholders in the healthcare ecosystem. The company has a focus on oncology with its patient care centres providing oncology patients with continuous care.In this note, we look at LinkDoc’s SOTP valuation. We have previously covered the IPO in: 

LinkDoc (零氪科技) Pre-IPO - Intricately Embedded in the Oncology Industry 

LinkDoc (零氪科技) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - A Niche that Doesn’t Give a Clear Advantage 


LinkDoc (零氪科技) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

China

Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited is an integrated healthcare information and content service provider. The Company uses product identification, authentication, and tracking system data for its healthcare information.

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Alibaba Health Information Tec (241 HK)

LinkDoc Technology IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of LinkDoc Technology suggests an implied market cap of $2.0 billion or $22.3 per share, which represents 20% upside from...

Douglas Kim

LinkDoc Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that LinkDoc is fairly valued at the low-end of the IPO price range. Consequently, we are inclined to sit on the...

Arun George

Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

Our base-case DCF valuation is HK$31.80 per share. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive price range and strong blue-chip...

Arun George

Medlive (医脉通) IPO: Candidate for Multi-Bagger

We look at the deal term of Medlive IPO and provide an update for the book building. We think there's substantial upside from both its existing...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

LinkDoc (零氪科技) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

LinkDoc is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming U.S. IPO.LinkDoc is a data-driven and AI-enabled healthcare technology company.

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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