Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.</li>
<li>A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. </li>
<li>China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.</li>
</ul>


During MOI correction period, global semi equipment and manufacturing vendors might under-perform semi product companies on sales/earnings and share price performance in next 6 months given utilization remains below 80%.
A healthy MOI correction in PC/smartphone semi might result in global logic MOI to fall to 3.7-3.8 months in 3Q23, down 15% q/q and 8% y/y, heading to historical low. 
China fabless reduced MOI to 6.4 months in 3Q23, down 16% q/q and 26% y/y. Although 2x over 3.5 months low, we expect 4-5 months in future due to restrictions.


More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower than expected IBB revenues.</li>
<li>Broad-Based recovery is now looking more like a H1'24 scenario with lingering uncertainty as to how it quickly it will unfold thereafter</li>
<li>System sales to China increased from 8% of revenues in Q1'23 to 24% in Q2'23. Non-China DUV order cancellations are being snapped up by China at an unprecedented rate. </li>
</ul>


FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower than expected IBB revenues.
Broad-Based recovery is now looking more like a H1'24 scenario with lingering uncertainty as to how it quickly it will unfold thereafter
System sales to China increased from 8% of revenues in Q1'23 to 24% in Q2'23. Non-China DUV order cancellations are being snapped up by China at an unprecedented rate. 


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's results and guidance sparked a massive rally in the shares, marking one of the largest single-day increases in market cap in U.S. stock market history.</li>
<li>The company sees a multi-year growth cycle of data center upgrades ahead. Key supply chain partners TSMC and ASML are rising as well.</li>
<li>Wiwynn in Taiwan should be a key winner. We also highlight a potential wildcard smallcap AI play that we will investigate further.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's results and guidance sparked a massive rally in the shares, marking one of the largest single-day increases in market cap in U.S. stock market history.
The company sees a multi-year growth cycle of data center upgrades ahead. Key supply chain partners TSMC and ASML are rising as well.
Wiwynn in Taiwan should be a key winner. We also highlight a potential wildcard smallcap AI play that we will investigate further.


Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – order intake below long-term desired level • dsm-firmenich | deadline for non-binding offers for ANH this Thursday • Van Lanschot Kempen | Bank Delen further expands its presence in the Netherlands • Vopak | partnership with OQ to accelerate development of Duqm as integrated industrial hub • PostNL | main takeaways from yesterday’s AGM • TomTom | change in accounting strongly beneficiary for profitability – no impact on FCF</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – order intake below long-term desired level • dsm-firmenich | deadline for non-binding offers for ANH this Thursday • Van Lanschot Kempen | Bank Delen further expands its presence in the Netherlands • Vopak | partnership with OQ to accelerate development of Duqm as integrated industrial hub • PostNL | main takeaways from yesterday’s AGM • TomTom | change in accounting strongly beneficiary for profitability – no impact on FCF

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>ASML announced its second quarter 2024 financial results, revealing data that both supports and raises concerns about its short-term performance and long-term strategy.</li><li>The company posted total net sales of EUR 6.2 billion, slightly ahead of its guided figures, with net system sales contributing EUR 4.8 billion.</li><li>The net system sales were driven by 54% Logic and 46% Memory, with Installed Base Management sales slightly higher than expected at EUR 1.48 billion.</li></ul>

ASML announced its second quarter 2024 financial results, revealing data that both supports and raises concerns about its short-term performance and long-term strategy.The company posted total net sales of EUR 6.2 billion, slightly ahead of its guided figures, with net system sales contributing EUR 4.8 billion.The net system sales were driven by 54% Logic and 46% Memory, with Installed Base Management sales slightly higher than expected at EUR 1.48 billion.

ASML Holding N.V.: What Is The Impact Of Impact of the Chips Act and Global Expansion? - Major Drivers

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction

More Signs of Fab Utilization Recovery Starting Mid-2024 Post Current MOI Correction. During the period, global semi equipment and manufacturing...

Andrew Lu

ASML. Sanctions? Moi?

FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower IBB revenues. Semi recovery now a H1'24 scenario with uncertainty...

William Keating

Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

The company sees US$1 trillion of data center upgrades ahead. Our AI Leaders Basket constituents TSMC and ASML are rising as well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PostNL NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – order intake below long-term desired level • dsm-firmenich | deadline for non-binding...

The IDEA!

ASML Holding N.V.: What Is The Impact Of Impact of the Chips Act and Global Expansion? - Major Drivers

ASML announced its second quarter 2024 financial results, revealing data that both supports and raises concerns about its short-term performance...

Baptista Research

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