European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shareholders of both firms have approved the merger, clearing a critical milestone ahead of expected regulatory clearance by late Q3 2025.</li>
<li>CHF 400m in net synergies and potential capital optimization could lift 2028 ROE to nearly 16%, offering meaningful value creation.</li>
<li>I recommend a long Baloise / short Helvetia strategy to capture the current 1.2% spread, translating to an estimated 3.4% annualized return.</li>
</ul>


Shareholders of both firms have approved the merger, clearing a critical milestone ahead of expected regulatory clearance by late Q3 2025.
CHF 400m in net synergies and potential capital optimization could lift 2028 ROE to nearly 16%, offering meaningful value creation.
I recommend a long Baloise / short Helvetia strategy to capture the current 1.2% spread, translating to an estimated 3.4% annualized return.


Underwriting Returns: A Risk Arb Look at Helvetia-Baloise

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.</p><p>The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.</p>

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

Switzerland

Baloise Holding AG offers group and individual life, health, accident, liability property, and transportation insurance to customers in Europe.  The Company also offers private banking and asset management services.

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Baloise Holding Ag (BALN VX)

Underwriting Returns: A Risk Arb Look at Helvetia-Baloise

With shareholder approval secured and limited antitrust risk, the Helvetia-Baloise deal looks solid. Low spread and high visibility make it a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements...

Vermilion Research

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