Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Domestic Japanese lending business has new customer acquisition tracking above target, reflecting positive changes in the current environment for unsecured loans. The absolute JPY balance increases at Aiful (8515.JP) remains the highest within the consumer finance industry. * Aiful’s Thai business will be profitable by FY 3/19 and is expected to represent 7% of consolidated profits by FY 3/20.  Further, media reports suggest that Aiful is considering listing its Thai subsidiary. * The drawdown…

* Domestic Japanese lending business has new customer acquisition tracking above target, reflecting positive changes in the current environment for unsecured loans. The absolute JPY balance increases at Aiful (8515.JP) remains the highest within the consumer finance industry. * Aiful’s Thai business will be profitable by FY 3/19 and is expected to represent 7% of consolidated profits by FY 3/20.  Further, media reports suggest that Aiful is considering listing its Thai subsidiary. * The drawdown…

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

* Bank Danamon is additive to MUFG’s ASEAN strategy, bringing it's foreign content of EPS to 50%.* From a financial and managerial perspective, Bank Danomon is a time consuming and expensive transaction. Greater EPS accretion could be garnered more simply and without the risks execution, and being in Indonesia.   * Focus, in our view, would be better spent on repairing/restructuring the US operation (s) whose overall business appears to have stalled, and where greater EPS and price performance…

* Bank Danamon is additive to MUFG’s ASEAN strategy, bringing it's foreign content of EPS to 50%.* From a financial and managerial perspective, Bank Danomon is a time consuming and expensive transaction. Greater EPS accretion could be garnered more simply and without the risks execution, and being in Indonesia.   * Focus, in our view, would be better spent on repairing/restructuring the US operation (s) whose overall business appears to have stalled, and where greater EPS and price performance…

MUFG – Bank Danamon Deal Makes Little Sense

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Tisco Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Given the bullish SET 50 index pattern and chart set-up we scanned through the top 50 stocks in Thailand and came up with this group of stocks that show either leadership, attractive chart pattern and more favorable risk-to-reward.Thai stock pick webcast:  <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/wgsUHhEenp" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/wgsUHhEenp</a> 2:54 min<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/038/571/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1511132340" data-smartkarma-image-id="38571"></figure><div class="content-caption">Thai stock webcast</div>At the top of our list has been Thanachart Capital that is breaking higher out of triangulation and leading the SET 50. TCAP is about to kiss our first target at 57.50 and then…

Given the bullish SET 50 index pattern and chart set-up we scanned through the top 50 stocks in Thailand and came up with this group of stocks that show either leadership, attractive chart pattern and more favorable risk-to-reward.Thai stock pick webcast:  https://www.screencast.com/t/wgsUHhEenp 2:54 minThai stock webcastAt the top of our list has been Thanachart Capital that is breaking higher out of triangulation and leading the SET 50. TCAP is about to kiss our first target at 57.50 and then…

Attractive Thai Stocks for an SET Breakout

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Since the last Clash of the Titans between TMB and SCB over FWD ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmb-vs-scb-bancassurance-ain-t-big-enough-for-the-two-of-us" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12158">TMB Vs SCB: Bancassurance Ain’t Big Enough for the Two of Us!</a>), we haven't spoken much about insurance. In the meantime, Bangkok Bank nailed the deal with HK's AIA, the top foreign insurer in Thailand and one-time market leader. That sent BLA's share price spiraling over 7% in a single day, as investors said Bangkok Bank ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rabble-rousers-ep-3-the-king-of-banks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6762">Rabble Rousers (Ep. 3): The King of Banks</a>) would start selling AIA policies rather than their own house…

Since the last Clash of the Titans between TMB and SCB over FWD ( TMB Vs SCB: Bancassurance Ain’t Big Enough for the Two of Us!), we haven't spoken much about insurance. In the meantime, Bangkok Bank nailed the deal with HK's AIA, the top foreign insurer in Thailand and one-time market leader. That sent BLA's share price spiraling over 7% in a single day, as investors said Bangkok Bank ( Rabble Rousers (Ep. 3): The King of Banks) would start selling AIA policies rather than their own house…

Sathorn Series C: Revisiting Thai Insurance

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There are four or five mainstream, listed banks in Thailand. When including small banks, government specialized banks and foreign banks with reasonably populated financial data, there are 25 banks. We examine credit quality metrics ahead of upcoming results on 21 October, taking into account all Thai banks. Specifically, we look at some meaningful divergence in trends of bad loan growth, as well as bad loan ratios. The Islamic Bank of Thailand (IBT) stands out with the highest non-performing…

There are four or five mainstream, listed banks in Thailand. When including small banks, government specialized banks and foreign banks with reasonably populated financial data, there are 25 banks. We examine credit quality metrics ahead of upcoming results on 21 October, taking into account all Thai banks. Specifically, we look at some meaningful divergence in trends of bad loan growth, as well as bad loan ratios. The Islamic Bank of Thailand (IBT) stands out with the highest non-performing…

A Broader View of Thai Bank Credit Quality

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

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Bangkok Bank (BBL/F TB)

Aiful – Sawasdee Ka

* Domestic Japanese lending business has new customer acquisition tracking above target, reflecting positive changes in the current environment for...

Thomas J. Monaco

MUFG – Bank Danamon Deal Makes Little Sense

* Bank Danamon is additive to MUFG’s ASEAN strategy, bringing it's foreign content of EPS to 50%.* From a financial and managerial perspective,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Attractive Thai Stocks for an SET Breakout

Given the bullish SET 50 index pattern and chart set-up we scanned through the top 50 stocks in Thailand and came up with this group of stocks that...

Thomas Schroeder

Sathorn Series C: Revisiting Thai Insurance

Since the last Clash of the Titans between TMB and SCB over FWD ( TMB Vs SCB: Bancassurance Ain’t Big Enough for the Two of Us!), we haven't spoken...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

A Broader View of Thai Bank Credit Quality

There are four or five mainstream, listed banks in Thailand. When including small banks, government specialized banks and foreign banks with...

Daniel Tabbush

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