Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Douyin, the Chinese version of the short-video sharing app TikTok, has launched a new mobile payment service called Douyin Pay to supplement the existing payment services (Alipay and WeChat Pay) within the Douyin app.</p><p>The move puts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a>, the parent company of Douyin and TikTok, in direct competition with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>’s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>’s mobile payment solutions at a time where Chinese regulators are improving oversight and regulations to prevent the monopolistic behaviour of large tech companies in the financial service space.</p>

Douyin, the Chinese version of the short-video sharing app TikTok, has launched a new mobile payment service called Douyin Pay to supplement the existing payment services (Alipay and WeChat Pay) within the Douyin app.The move puts ByteDance (1460967D CH), the parent company of Douyin and TikTok, in direct competition with Ant Group (6688 HK)’s and Tencent Holdings (700 HK)’s mobile payment solutions at a time where Chinese regulators are improving oversight and regulations to prevent the monopolistic behaviour of large tech companies in the financial service space.

The Launch of Douyin Pay: A Double Blow for Alibaba

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH)</a> is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Kuaishou has started pre-marketing for Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion. Kuaishou which was previously seeking a $50 billion valuation is now being valued by the syndicate at $65-91 billion, according to <a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1070003/ipo-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese media reports</a>. Potential IPO investors seem to be more sanguine and according to these same reports are said to be a seeking a $60-70 billion valuation. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-initiation-dancing-to-its-own-tune" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45032" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune</a>, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-thrill-seekers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47104" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers</a>,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46787" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Valuation First Look </a>for the latest set of results. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that a $65 billion valuation is justifiable (the low-end of the rumoured syndicate range) but would be hesitant to participate at a higher valuation.</p></div>
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Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH) is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Kuaishou has started pre-marketing for Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion. Kuaishou which was previously seeking a $50 billion valuation is now being valued by the syndicate at $65-91 billion, according to Chinese media reports. Potential IPO investors seem to be more sanguine and according to these same reports are said to be a seeking a $60-70 billion valuation. 
In Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. 
In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in Kuaishou IPO: Valuation First Look for the latest set of results. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that a $65 billion valuation is justifiable (the low-end of the rumoured syndicate range) but would be hesitant to participate at a higher valuation.


Kuaishou IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH)</a> is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Users access the platform primarily through a family of mobile apps comprising Kuaishou Flagship, Kuaishou Express and Kuaishou Concept, which is collectively referred to as the Kuaishou App. Kuaishou has got approval for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion, according to press reports. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-initiation-dancing-to-its-own-tune" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45032" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune</a>, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46787" rel="noopener">Kuaishou IPO: Valuation First Look</a>, we stated that the rumoured IPO valuation of $50 billion can be justified. The PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. </p></div>

Beijing Kuaishou Technology Co Ltd (1496219D CH) is the second-largest short video platform by average DAUs (daily active users) in 9M20, according to iResearch. Users access the platform primarily through a family of mobile apps comprising Kuaishou Flagship, Kuaishou Express and Kuaishou Concept, which is collectively referred to as the Kuaishou App. Kuaishou has got approval for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion, according to press reports. In Kuaishou IPO Initiation: Dancing to Its Own Tune, we stated that while Kuaishou’s performance over the track record period is distorted due to various factors, we believe that the underlying fundamentals are attractive. In Kuaishou IPO: Valuation First Look, we stated that the rumoured IPO valuation of $50 billion can be justified. The PHIP which discloses 9M20 results and key operating data for 11M20 reinforces our view that Kuaishou is worth a look. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p>Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.</p><p>As of six months ended Jun 2020, it had 302m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 85 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 776m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB109.6bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.</p><p>As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: </p><ul>
<li> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-hot-segment-fast-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-ample-doubts-remain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain</a></li>
</ul><p>In this note, I’ll undertake a peer comparison, provide earnings forecasts and talk about valuations. </p>

Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.As of six months ended Jun 2020, it had 302m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 85 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 776m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB109.6bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: 
 Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain
In this note, I’ll undertake a peer comparison, provide earnings forecasts and talk about valuations. 

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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<p>In this note, we aim to highlight the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2021. This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various media and other sources.</p>
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<p>For readers who are not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific (ex-Korea and A-shares), including China ADRs. Hence, our pipeline will only include companies that fit these criterion.</p>
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<p><strong>Feel free to drop us a message for additional information (bookrunners and coverage) on these IPOs</strong></p>
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In this note, we aim to highlight the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2021. This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various media and other sources.


For readers who are not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific (ex-Korea and A-shares), including China ADRs. Hence, our pipeline will only include companies that fit these criterion.


Feel free to drop us a message for additional information (bookrunners and coverage) on these IPOs


Aequitas 2021 Asia IPO Pipeline - More Mega IPOs to Come

China

Beijing Douyin Information Service Co. Ltd. provides online information and contents. The Company develops and operates short video platform, original short video community, news platform, and other related products. Beijing Douyin Information Service offers services worldwide.

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ByteDance (1439927D CH)

The Launch of Douyin Pay: A Double Blow for Alibaba

Douyin, the Chinese version of the short-video sharing app TikTok, has launched a new mobile payment service called Douyin Pay to supplement the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Kuaishou IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

Kuaishou is being valued by the syndicate at $65-91 bn, according to Chinese media reports. We think that a $65 bn valuation is justifiable but...

Arun George

Kuaishou IPO: Thrill Seekers

Kuaishou has got approval for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $5-6 billion, according to press reports. The PHIP which discloses new data points...

Arun George

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Kuaishou is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent,...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas 2021 Asia IPO Pipeline - More Mega IPOs to Come

We aim to highlight the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2021. This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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