IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a> is likely to reject <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yanzhou-coal-mining-company-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H (1171 HK)</a>’s H-Share CBs of US$3.60 (HK$28.26/A$5.07) per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a> share, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/glencore-reject-offer-yancoal-australia-stake-too-low-sources-2022-06-02/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to Reuters</a>.</li>
<li>If the privatisation succeeds, we estimate that Yankuang’s additional claim on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a>’s three-year FCF would broadly cover the total potential consideration of US$1,794 million.</li>
<li>The fixed coupon on the CBs would likely need to match the foregone dividend yield. We think it challenging for Yankuang to bridge the gap to Glencore’s “right price”. </li>
</ul>



Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) is likely to reject Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H (1171 HK)’s H-Share CBs of US$3.60 (HK$28.26/A$5.07) per Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) share, according to Reuters.
If the privatisation succeeds, we estimate that Yankuang’s additional claim on Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)’s three-year FCF would broadly cover the total potential consideration of US$1,794 million.
The fixed coupon on the CBs would likely need to match the foregone dividend yield. We think it challenging for Yankuang to bridge the gap to Glencore’s “right price”. 


Glencore and Yankuang’s Disparate Valuations of Yancoal

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>BHP shareholders received US$18bn worth of Woodside petroleum shares on 1st Jun 2022, post the completion of the merger.</li>
<li>As a part of the distribution, some shares belonging to ineligible and other small shareholders are being sold by the sales agent, JPM, in a US$823m block.</li>
<li>In this note, we will look at the possible deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


BHP shareholders received US$18bn worth of Woodside petroleum shares on 1st Jun 2022, post the completion of the merger.
As a part of the distribution, some shares belonging to ineligible and other small shareholders are being sold by the sales agent, JPM, in a US$823m block.
In this note, we will look at the possible deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


BHP Woodside Placement - Here Comes the Block, Will Be Tricky Trading over the Next Few Days

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Australian Financial Review's "Street Talk" column says the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> (new ticker is WDS AU) block is out. </li>
<li>Bookbuild is at $28.65 to $30.19 a share with is a 0% to 5.1% discount to the close (stock was up 1.44% today).</li>
<li>The size of the trade is apparently 38 million shares. If you have been in the Woodside/Santos trade, I would take the deal, tactically.</li>
</ul>


The Australian Financial Review's "Street Talk" column says the Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) (new ticker is WDS AU) block is out. 
Bookbuild is at $28.65 to $30.19 a share with is a 0% to 5.1% discount to the close (stock was up 1.44% today).
The size of the trade is apparently 38 million shares. If you have been in the Woodside/Santos trade, I would take the deal, tactically.


Woodside Block - Medium Bigly, Well-Prepared, and More To Come

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Post-Spin, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> should look more like RIO. It's not clear it does, but it does move around in a way that allows one to harvest ratio noise. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> has been the poster child for "deep value" Japan traders and occasional wannabe activists. It has a huge equity portfolio which dwarfs market cap. </li>
<li>Fourteen years after its acquisition, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/incitec-pivot-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1127:1" rel="noopener">Incitec Pivot (IPL AU)</a> plans to demerge Dyno Nobel from its fertilizer ops. The split has been a long time coming. </li>
</ul>


Post-Spin, BHP (BHP AU) should look more like RIO. It's not clear it does, but it does move around in a way that allows one to harvest ratio noise. 

Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) has been the poster child for "deep value" Japan traders and occasional wannabe activists. It has a huge equity portfolio which dwarfs market cap. 
Fourteen years after its acquisition, Incitec Pivot (IPL AU) plans to demerge Dyno Nobel from its fertilizer ops. The split has been a long time coming. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank of Kyoto, Incitec Pivot, Yancoal, Virtus

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Woodside Petroleum / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>Delhivery surprised with a strong debut, closing 10% above IPO price by the end of its first day.</li>
<li>There were a couple of blocks that hit markets this week, and we discussed the lockup expiries on both Grab and Cloud Village.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
Delhivery surprised with a strong debut, closing 10% above IPO price by the end of its first day.
There were a couple of blocks that hit markets this week, and we discussed the lockup expiries on both Grab and Cloud Village.


ECM Weekly (29th May 2022) -Woodside, Cloud Village, Delhivery, Nufarm, Converge, Oyo, Sayona Mining

Australia

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)

Glencore and Yankuang’s Disparate Valuations of Yancoal

Glencore is likely to reject Yankuang’s offer, according to Reuters. While Glencore is said to be a willing seller, we think that Yankuang will...

Arun George

BHP Woodside Placement - Here Comes the Block, Will Be Tricky Trading over the Next Few Days

BHP shareholders received US$18bn worth of Woodside petroleum shares on 1st Jun 2022. As a part of the merger, JPM is looking to sell around...

Sumeet Singh

Woodside Block - Medium Bigly, Well-Prepared, and More To Come

The Woodside "Sale Facility" block is out at a 0-5.1% discount. This block is well-flagged, somewhat well-prepared, and some people are long Santos...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank of Kyoto, Incitec Pivot, Yancoal, Virtus

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

ECM Weekly (29th May 2022) -Woodside, Cloud Village, Delhivery, Nufarm, Converge, Oyo, Sayona Mining

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Clarence Chu

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