Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Among the large-cap EM Asia banks, we recommend CCB in China, HDFC Bank in India, Bank Mandiri in Indonesia and Hana Financial in South Korea</li>
<li>In LatAm, we turn positive on Banco do Brasil, for its big value attributes and lesser political risk; we turn cautious on Bradesco and stay cautious on Banorte in Mexico</li>
<li>Two large-cap names to watch are Credicorp in Peru and Standard Bank of South Africa; both have challenging macro-economic backdrops but sound “bottom up” credentials</li>
</ul>


Among the large-cap EM Asia banks, we recommend CCB in China, HDFC Bank in India, Bank Mandiri in Indonesia and Hana Financial in South Korea
In LatAm, we turn positive on Banco do Brasil, for its big value attributes and lesser political risk; we turn cautious on Bradesco and stay cautious on Banorte in Mexico
Two large-cap names to watch are Credicorp in Peru and Standard Bank of South Africa; both have challenging macro-economic backdrops but sound “bottom up” credentials


Large Cap GEM Bank Screener - Our Top Picks

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 120.6% as of Jul 7th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 5.9ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BankComm, ICBC, CCB, BYD, Asymchem, Hisense, Baiyunshan, Yankuang Energy, New China Life.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 120.6% as of Jul 7th.
The average A-H premium changed by 5.9ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BankComm, ICBC, CCB, BYD, Asymchem, Hisense, Baiyunshan, Yankuang Energy, New China Life.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 7th): BankComm, ICBC, CCB, BYD, Asymchem, Hisense, Baiyunshan

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank of Chongqing Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Combination of high NIM contraction with high loan growth is not a good combination</li>
<li>BOC has seen its NIM down 14% in the past year but against 12% loan growth</li>
<li>PBOC pressure to cut rates and for banks to support ailing debtors, is a risk</li>
</ul>


Combination of high NIM contraction with high loan growth is not a good combination
BOC has seen its NIM down 14% in the past year but against 12% loan growth
PBOC pressure to cut rates and for banks to support ailing debtors, is a risk


Bank of Chongqing - One Of Worst NIM Contraction, But With High Loan Growth

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $366m Outflows in June

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 30th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups. </li>
<li>We estimate that the outflows were USD 20 million and highlight flows for ICBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 30th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups. 
We estimate that the outflows were USD 20 million and highlight flows for ICBC.


China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

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China Construction Bank H (939 HK)

Large Cap GEM Bank Screener - Our Top Picks

In EM Asia, we like CCB, HDFC Bank, Mandiri & Hana; in LatAm, we turn positive on Banco do Brasil, go cautious on Bradesco & remain cautious on...

Victor Galliano

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 7th): BankComm, ICBC, CCB, BYD, Asymchem, Hisense, Baiyunshan

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for BankComm, ICBC, CCB, BYD, Asymchem, Hisense, Baiyunshan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bank of Chongqing - One Of Worst NIM Contraction, But With High Loan Growth

NIM contraction at BOC is severe and this is despite high loan growth. Risk is that this worsens in coming quarters, with weaker economy. Credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $366m Outflows in June

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for June and highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 30th): ICBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week. We estimate the outflows to be USD 20 million and highlight flows for ICBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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