Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday 26 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a> dropped a business <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/1126/2021112601534.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update</a> at 10:30pm.</li>
<li>The land under Guangzhou Evergrande Stadium has been taken over by the local government meaning the $1.8bn project is under new control. The team may be forfeit as well.</li>
<li>Evergrande Chairman Hui sold 1.2 billion shares of Evergrande (3333 HK) last week in what appeared to be two transactions. That may be linked to a third this coming week.</li>
</ul>


On Friday 26 November, Evergrande Auto (708 HK) dropped a business update at 10:30pm.
The land under Guangzhou Evergrande Stadium has been taken over by the local government meaning the $1.8bn project is under new control. The team may be forfeit as well.
Evergrande Chairman Hui sold 1.2 billion shares of Evergrande (3333 HK) last week in what appeared to be two transactions. That may be linked to a third this coming week.


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Stadium Levy:Likely Guangzhou City Construction Investment Group has seized the halted China Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) [Evergrande] stadium project in order to dispose of it;</li>
<li>
Stake Sale:In order to stave off default, Evergrande’s Chairman reduced his family’s stake, raising the equivalent USD 344 mn; and</li>
<li>
Guarantee and Grace Period:Investors are threatening to re-invoke Evergrande’s Jumbo Fortune bond guarantee, and we await the expiry of another 30-day grace period expiry on December 6, 2021.</li>
</ul>



Stadium Levy:Likely Guangzhou City Construction Investment Group has seized the halted China Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) [Evergrande] stadium project in order to dispose of it;

Stake Sale:In order to stave off default, Evergrande’s Chairman reduced his family’s stake, raising the equivalent USD 344 mn; and

Guarantee and Grace Period:Investors are threatening to re-invoke Evergrande’s Jumbo Fortune bond guarantee, and we await the expiry of another 30-day grace period expiry on December 6, 2021.


China Evergrande Group – Levies and Liquidations

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The record low birth rate highlights the fact that China will slide to no.2 in terms of population, which may slow its race to take the economic top spot.</li>
<li>China’s property market is experiencing a period of unprecedented weakness, the result of policies implemented by Beijing to rein in developers' leverage.</li>
<li>China’s tightened regulation of video gaming content will be as harsh as its control of films and television shows.</li>
</ul>


The record low birth rate highlights the fact that China will slide to no.2 in terms of population, which may slow its race to take the economic top spot.
China’s property market is experiencing a period of unprecedented weakness, the result of policies implemented by Beijing to rein in developers' leverage.
China’s tightened regulation of video gaming content will be as harsh as its control of films and television shows.


Birthing/ Housing/ Gaming/ Shipping/ Daring

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/anton-oilfield-services-gp' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Anton Oilfield</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-south-city-holdings' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China South City</a></li><li><a href='/entities/panda-green-energy-group-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Panda Green</a></li><li><a href='/entities/gcl-new-energy-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Gcl New Energy Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Tata Motors LtdAnton OilfieldChina South CityPanda GreenGcl New Energy Holdingsand more...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinese-estates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20954:1" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK)</a> has despatched the scheme document. The offeror will offer HK$4.00 per scheme share. The scheme meeting is scheduled for 9:30 am on 17 December.</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, the IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. We think that the IFA analysis of historical share prices and privatisation precedents is flawed. </li>
<li>As no shareholder holds a blocking stake, the bid will likely succeed. At last close, the shares trade at a gross spread of 6.4% to the offer price. </li>
</ul>



Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK) has despatched the scheme document. The offeror will offer HK$4.00 per scheme share. The scheme meeting is scheduled for 9:30 am on 17 December.
Unsurprisingly, the IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. We think that the IFA analysis of historical share prices and privatisation precedents is flawed. 
As no shareholder holds a blocking stake, the bid will likely succeed. At last close, the shares trade at a gross spread of 6.4% to the offer price. 


Chinese Estates’ Scheme Document, IFA Opinion

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Goings On in Evergrande Land

EG NEV (708 HK) raised equity, then sold land back to the local govt, Chairman Hui sold shares, the local govt took back the Lotus Flower stadium,...

Travis Lundy

China Evergrande Group – Levies and Liquidations

EVERGRANDE: Authorities have seized Evergrande's stadium project. The Chairman reduced his family’s stake, but we await the outcome of a bond...

Thomas J. Monaco

Birthing/ Housing/ Gaming/ Shipping/ Daring

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

Weekly Wrap - 26 Nov 2021

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Chinese Estates’ Scheme Document, IFA Opinion

The scheme meeting is on 17 December. IFA considers the HK$4 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. At last close, the shares trade at a gross...

Arun George

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