Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Rising oil prices can benefit DBS far more than peers, given its loan exposure to oil &amp; gas service sector. The bank can see improvements in both in on-balance sheet exposures as well as its off-balance sheet commitments. A look at loan loss reserves compared with gross loans, shows how one can model write-backs, and a precedence for seeing reserves come down after a sharp rise.  </p>

Rising oil prices can benefit DBS far more than peers, given its loan exposure to oil &amp; gas service sector. The bank can see improvements in both in on-balance sheet exposures as well as its off-balance sheet commitments. A look at loan loss reserves compared with gross loans, shows how one can model write-backs, and a precedence for seeing reserves come down after a sharp rise.  

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).</li>
<li>We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw RMB 15bn+ of net selling. That's six weeks in a row of respectably large outflows.</li>
</ul>


This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw RMB 15bn+ of net selling. That's six weeks in a row of respectably large outflows.


Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) : Zhongzhi Innolight, BYD, and Amperex

<ul>
<li>This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-a-h-premium-weekly-sep-8-icbc-abc-ccb-boc-vanke-ncl-rails" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A/H Premium Monitor</a> and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).</li>
<li>We like the nifty interactive tables and charts. We welcome feedback on how to make it more useful going forward.</li>
</ul>


This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables and charts. We welcome feedback on how to make it more useful going forward.


Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 8Sep23) : BYD, ZTE, Zhongji Innolight, Amperex

<ul>
<li>The Brand-Spanking New (three weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore.</li>
<li>New stimulus measures appear to be triggering FOMO on real estate stocks, but a foreshortened week, yet again, makes one wonder. There IS money being applied though.</li>
<li>I expect more measures and more buying. I am not sure I would want to be short any Hs with a deep discount to the A the next few months.</li>
</ul>


The Brand-Spanking New (three weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore.
New stimulus measures appear to be triggering FOMO on real estate stocks, but a foreshortened week, yet again, makes one wonder. There IS money being applied though.
I expect more measures and more buying. I am not sure I would want to be short any Hs with a deep discount to the A the next few months.


Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (Sep 8):  ICBC, ABC, CCB, BOC, Vanke, NCL, Rails

<ul>
<li>Singapore credit growth turned negative at -3% YoY in July where STAN has major exposure, while many regions, are not high growth, where credit metrics are worsening, like HK, China</li>
<li>88% of loans in well-developed countries, so that the old moniker of STAN being 'an Emerging Market Bank' may no longer apply, with NPLs as an overlying risk</li>
<li>Credit costs rose 6x from 1Q23 to 2Q23, but the 19bps level in 2Q23 remains low relative to its longer-term 62bps average - which excludes the Asian Financial Crisis</li>
</ul>


Singapore credit growth turned negative at -3% YoY in July where STAN has major exposure, while many regions, are not high growth, where credit metrics are worsening, like HK, China
88% of loans in well-developed countries, so that the old moniker of STAN being 'an Emerging Market Bank' may no longer apply, with NPLs as an overlying risk
Credit costs rose 6x from 1Q23 to 2Q23, but the 19bps level in 2Q23 remains low relative to its longer-term 62bps average - which excludes the Asian Financial Crisis


Standard Chartered - Singapore Credit Growth Negative In July | Credit Costs Up 6x QoQ But Still Low

China

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial bank. The Company provides deposits, loans, wealth management, asset custody, finance leasing, investment banking, and other banking services. China Merchants Bank conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

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China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)

DBS - Oil Prices Can Support Reversals

Far higher oil prices in recent days, weeks, makes the outlook for the bank's oil and gas service exposures much better, and these remain the...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 15Sep23) : Zhongzhi Innolight, BYD, and Amperex

This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Tables and charts of flows and positions on the largest and most...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 8Sep23) : BYD, ZTE, Zhongji Innolight, Amperex

The Brand-Spanking New Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows Monitor. Tables and Charts of Top 10-30 names/flows, flows and position by...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (Sep 8): ICBC, ABC, CCB, BOC, Vanke, NCL, Rails

The fourth week of the A/H Monitor and the last three weeks have seen decent returns. Hs outperformed As decently on a short week. Exposure to...

Travis Lundy

Standard Chartered - Singapore Credit Growth Negative In July | Credit Costs Up 6x QoQ But Still Low

Sing credit -3% July, a key region for STAN. The old descriptive is no longer valid , 'The Emerging Market Bank', given its footprint. Credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

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