Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting &gt; 10% weekly gains.</li>
<li>Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.</li>
<li>China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. </li>
</ul>


Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting &gt; 10% weekly gains.
Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.
China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. 


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>After 40 months of consecutive MoM decline, China's real estate market is on the brink of a somewhat sustained recovery, with particularly, pricing improvement in November;</li>
<li>Pricing is important because it entices buyers back to the market. Before that, transaction volumes have already seen meaningful rebound and the rebound has spread from existing to new homes;</li>
<li>We maintain our view that China had a moderate property bubble in the tradable housing sector but not the overall housing sector. Long term growth potential is still bright.</li>
</ul>


After 40 months of consecutive MoM decline, China's real estate market is on the brink of a somewhat sustained recovery, with particularly, pricing improvement in November;
Pricing is important because it entices buyers back to the market. Before that, transaction volumes have already seen meaningful rebound and the rebound has spread from existing to new homes;
We maintain our view that China had a moderate property bubble in the tradable housing sector but not the overall housing sector. Long term growth potential is still bright.


China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>CSRC's Market Value Management Guidelines will indirectly benefit the H-share stocks with their A-share counterparts with a P/B of below 1x.  </li>
<li>Chinese banks dominated the list with below-book A-shares. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16221:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Bank (6818 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-citic-bank-corp-ltd-ea6c25fd-4b20-45cb-a4a6-df7a60136f03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:653:1" rel="noopener">China Citic Bank H (998 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> are the prime beneficiaries.</li>
<li>Infrastructure construction companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-construction-corp-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:263:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Cons Corp (1186 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group H (390 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Comm Cons (1800 HK)</a> are also well-positioned to gain.</li>
</ul>


CSRC's Market Value Management Guidelines will indirectly benefit the H-share stocks with their A-share counterparts with a P/B of below 1x.  
Chinese banks dominated the list with below-book A-shares. China Everbright Bank (6818 HK), China Citic Bank H (998 HK), and ICBC (H) (1398 HK) are the prime beneficiaries.
Infrastructure construction companies China Railway Cons Corp (1186 HK), China Railway Group H (390 HK), and China Comm Cons (1800 HK) are also well-positioned to gain.


China & HK Strategy: Names to Watch for Market Value Management

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity rebounded about 20% this week vs the previous week. Net buying was a little lower but still strong. Market volumes overall in HK remain weak.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> was again the top buy and EV names <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> were bought, but tech as a whole was sold.</li>
<li>I continue to expect HK-listed tech to see ongoing buying. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity rebounded about 20% this week vs the previous week. Net buying was a little lower but still strong. Market volumes overall in HK remain weak.

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was again the top buy and EV names XPeng (9868 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) were bought, but tech as a whole was sold.
I continue to expect HK-listed tech to see ongoing buying. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. is a property development company.  The Company develops residential properties in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Nanjing, and other big cities in China.

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China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.

John Ley

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 17-23, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

China's real estate market shows signs of rebound with narrowing decline in home prices, potential stabilization post Chinese New Year 2025. KE...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China & HK Strategy: Names to Watch for Market Value Management

SASAC issued "Several opinions on improving and strengthening the market value management of listed companies controlled by central enterprises"...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too

Connect SOUTHBOUND volumes were +20%wow, Net buying continued though tech flows slower. Markets up. China first retaliation in trade is...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

​Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.

John Ley

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 17-23, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

​China's real estate market shows signs of rebound with narrowing decline in home prices, potential stabilization post Chinese New Year 2025. KE...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China & HK Strategy: Names to Watch for Market Value Management

SASAC issued "Several opinions on improving and strengthening the market value management of listed companies controlled by central enterprises"...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too

Connect SOUTHBOUND volumes were +20%wow, Net buying continued though tech flows slower. Markets up. China first retaliation in trade is...

Travis Lundy

Strong gains in information technology stocks AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l, and Byd Elec, but rally not as widespread as last week.

China's real estate market shows signs of rebound with narrowing decline in home prices, potential stabilization post Chinese New Year 2025. KE...