Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Wantai Biological Phar / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-wantai-biological-phar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30129:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH)</a> announced that its net profit for 2023 declined 71–75% YoY to RMB1.20–1.35B mainly due to the market competition.</li>
<li>China’s HPV vaccine market is highly competitive. Beijing Wantai has no presence in higher valent HPV vaccine segment, which dominates the domestic market.</li>
<li>Although the company will be one of the early movers in domestically developed nonavalent HPV vaccines, at least three more players will follow soon, thereby making the space more competitive.</li>
</ul>



Beijing Wantai Biological Phar (603392 CH) announced that its net profit for 2023 declined 71–75% YoY to RMB1.20–1.35B mainly due to the market competition.
China’s HPV vaccine market is highly competitive. Beijing Wantai has no presence in higher valent HPV vaccine segment, which dominates the domestic market.
Although the company will be one of the early movers in domestically developed nonavalent HPV vaccines, at least three more players will follow soon, thereby making the space more competitive.


Beijing Wantai Biological (603392 CH): Struggling to Make a Mark in Murky China HPV Vaccine Market

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 24th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$432.1 million, led by information technology, materials, and offset by health care, consumer discretionary, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Chongqing Changan Automobile, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock, Sungrow Power Supply, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 24th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$432.1 million, led by information technology, materials, and offset by health care, consumer discretionary, consumer staples.
We highlight flows for Chongqing Changan Automobile, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock, Sungrow Power Supply, BYD.


Northbound Flows (Nov 24th): Chongqing Changan Automobile, Sokon, Sungrow Power, BYD

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Some assets in A-share that were considered to have long-term growth but are not anymore. Then the logic of capital's allocation in A-share isn’t based on growth, but on liquidity.</li>
<li>There’s no real separation between local finance and medical insurance fund. So, there could be “surprises” during the promotion of DRGs policy. Then a slump in sentiment and valuations is possible.</li>
<li>For China healthcare, there’re structural opportunities and rebounds this year. We analyzed the possible trajectory of stock price fluctuations in different sectors, and also our top pick.</li>
</ul>


Some assets in A-share that were considered to have long-term growth but are not anymore. Then the logic of capital's allocation in A-share isn’t based on growth, but on liquidity.
There’s no real separation between local finance and medical insurance fund. So, there could be “surprises” during the promotion of DRGs policy. Then a slump in sentiment and valuations is possible.
For China healthcare, there’re structural opportunities and rebounds this year. We analyzed the possible trajectory of stock price fluctuations in different sectors, and also our top pick.


2023H2 China Healthcare Investment Strategy and Top Pick

<ul>
<li>The investment logic of vaccine companies is different that of biotech. Generally speaking, vaccine companies cannot develop to large scale without successfully betting on big vaccine varieties.</li>
<li>The most fatal problem of CanSino is that there’re no other blockbuster varieties except COVID-19 vaccine. So, either CanSino develops a big variety,or it would gradually enter a vicious circle.</li>
<li>CanSino’s current valuation is at a low level. Even with many negative factors, that doesn't mean CanSino's stock price won't rebound. </li>
</ul>


The investment logic of vaccine companies is different that of biotech. Generally speaking, vaccine companies cannot develop to large scale without successfully betting on big vaccine varieties.
The most fatal problem of CanSino is that there’re no other blockbuster varieties except COVID-19 vaccine. So, either CanSino develops a big variety,or it would gradually enter a vicious circle.
CanSino’s current valuation is at a low level. Even with many negative factors, that doesn't mean CanSino's stock price won't rebound. 


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) 2022 Results - It Is Time to Reassess CanSino and Its Future Prospects

<ul>
<li>Mismatch between blood products supply and demand is intensifying, but there’s little way to increase production capacity in short time, which offers a good time to invest blood products companies. </li>
<li>Investors should not be too greedy in front of every rally and rebound, but the proportion of medical expenditure and pension expenditure in China's GDP would still increase.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)</a> intends to IPO in Swiss. We think share price of CanSino would bounce back. It’s time to keep an eye on CanSino again. </li>
</ul>


Mismatch between blood products supply and demand is intensifying, but there’s little way to increase production capacity in short time, which offers a good time to invest blood products companies. 
Investors should not be too greedy in front of every rally and rebound, but the proportion of medical expenditure and pension expenditure in China's GDP would still increase.

CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH) intends to IPO in Swiss. We think share price of CanSino would bounce back. It’s time to keep an eye on CanSino again. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.3)- CanSino, Blood Products Shortage, Don't Be Greedy in Front of Rally

China

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Company Ltd. researches, manufactures, and sells vaccines and biological products including prevention products, blood products, diagnostic reagents, and therapeutic agents.

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

Beijing Wantai Biological (603392 CH): Struggling to Make a Mark in Murky China HPV Vaccine Market

Beijing Wantai expects 70%+ decline in net profit in 2023 due to competition. Going ahead, competition is expected to intensify further in China...

Tina Banerjee

Northbound Flows (Nov 24th): Chongqing Changan Automobile, Sokon, Sungrow Power, BYD

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Chongqing Changan Automobile, Sokon, Sungrow Power...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

2023H2 China Healthcare Investment Strategy and Top Pick

There're structural opportunity in China healthcare in 23H2. We advise investors not to miss out.Risks remain, offloading after rebound is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) 2022 Results - It Is Time to Reassess CanSino and Its Future Prospects

CanSino had poor performance last year,but share price could bounce back in the next “sector resonance".There's no long-term investment value until...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.3)- CanSino, Blood Products Shortage, Don't Be Greedy in Front of Rally

Contradiction between blood products supply and demand is intensifying. Cansino plans to IPO in Swiss -We see upside potential in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang