Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

FX & Rates

Are the concerning developments in Bonds and some corners of the Equity markets going to spill over into FX? The break overnight on the Bloomberg USD Index (BBDXY) forces one to look more closely at what might happen on a number of USD crosses, especially in Asia, and more specifically USDCNH.

Are the concerning developments in Bonds and some corners of the Equity markets going to spill over into FX? The break overnight on the Bloomberg USD Index (BBDXY) forces one to look more closely at what might happen on a number of USD crosses, especially in Asia, and more specifically USDCNH.

The interplay between the worlds major currencies and their recent behaviour begs questions as to what is going on with the Euro and the Renminbi. Remember that in a Currency War "up" may not be seen as "good".

The interplay between the worlds major currencies and their recent behaviour begs questions as to what is going on with the Euro and the Renminbi. Remember that in a Currency War "up" may not be seen as "good".

The quick rise in US yields has now led to disruptions in other markets including equities and possibly FX. The price action on USDCNH at the end of this week is important and close attention should now be paid to 6.5151

The quick rise in US yields has now led to disruptions in other markets including equities and possibly FX. The price action on USDCNH at the end of this week is important and close attention should now be paid to 6.5151

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

In this note, we discuss the best and worst performing currencies during the recovery from the pandemic-related drawdown last year.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In this note, we discuss the best and worst performing currencies during the recovery from the pandemic-related drawdown last year.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

FX Dashboard: Leaders and Laggards in the Pandemic

Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies have barely moved, pointing to the ability and willingness of Asian central bank to intervene in FX markets in a bid to manage both the volatility and directionality of their currencies. Conversely, emerging currencies, particularly in Latin America, have been prone to sharp pull-backs.Stretched currency valuations and still very weak global economic growth in January – which tallies with our forecast – has likely been a driver of currencies’ performance. In the past five weeks the inverse correlation between the Dollar and S&amp;P 500 and between the Dollar and the steepness of the US Treasury yield curve has broken down.Our take is that the broad-based diversification out of Dollars, driven by buoyant global risk appetite and market concerns about the Dollar’s real carry, has stalled and slightly reversed. We suspect that central banks and sovereign wealth funds may have re-focussed on domestic factors, which has in turn led to a rotation between other reserve currencies. This includes a rotation out of Euros and move into Sterling and a rotation out of the safe haven Swiss Franc and in particular Japanese Yen into commodity reserve currencies – namely the Canadian and Australian Dollars and Norwegian Krone – and New Zealand Dollar. These four currencies’ NEERs are now near the top end of their three-month ranges. In each case specific drivers have been in play, “in our view. Our analysis suggests that the Norwegian Krone may still be “cheap” relative to the current price of Brent crude oil.Figure 8 suggests that a rotation in and out of other (EM) currencies which were 1-2 months ago trading at the extremes of their ranges may have also taken place.The Dollar NEER has weakened about 0.9% since 4th February and its inverse correlation with the S&amp;P 500 (+1.2%) has re-established itself. We think this is a short-term correction, with another prolonged Dollar downtrend still a couple of months away.

In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies have barely moved, pointing to the ability and willingness of Asian central bank to intervene in FX markets in a bid to manage both the volatility and directionality of their currencies. Conversely, emerging currencies, particularly in Latin America, have been prone to sharp pull-backs.Stretched currency valuations and still very weak global economic growth in January – which tallies with our forecast – has likely been a driver of currencies’ performance. In the past five weeks the inverse correlation between the Dollar and S&amp;P 500 and between the Dollar and the steepness of the US Treasury yield curve has broken down.Our take is that the broad-based diversification out of Dollars, driven by buoyant global risk appetite and market concerns about the Dollar’s real carry, has stalled and slightly reversed. We suspect that central banks and sovereign wealth funds may have re-focussed on domestic factors, which has in turn led to a rotation between other reserve currencies. This includes a rotation out of Euros and move into Sterling and a rotation out of the safe haven Swiss Franc and in particular Japanese Yen into commodity reserve currencies – namely the Canadian and Australian Dollars and Norwegian Krone – and New Zealand Dollar. These four currencies’ NEERs are now near the top end of their three-month ranges. In each case specific drivers have been in play, “in our view. Our analysis suggests that the Norwegian Krone may still be “cheap” relative to the current price of Brent crude oil.Figure 8 suggests that a rotation in and out of other (EM) currencies which were 1-2 months ago trading at the extremes of their ranges may have also taken place.The Dollar NEER has weakened about 0.9% since 4th February and its inverse correlation with the S&amp;P 500 (+1.2%) has re-established itself. We think this is a short-term correction, with another prolonged Dollar downtrend still a couple of months away.

Dollar’s Recent Weakness – Blip, Not New Trend

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

Is USD/Asia the Next Market to Crack?

Turmoil in Bonds and some corners of Equities may spill over into FX. Find key levels in Asian markets to watch, especially on USDCNH.

Shyam Devani

FX: And the Winner Is...?

The interplay between the worlds major currencies and their recent behaviour begs questions as to what is going on with the Euro and the Renminbi.

Shyam Devani

USDCNH: Be Careful

USDCNH is testing key levels which if they give way could lead to further disruptions in FX markets especially as the rise in US yields does not...

Shyam Devani

FX Dashboard: Leaders and Laggards in the Pandemic

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that identifies dislocations in EM currency. In this note, we discuss the best and worst performing currencies...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Dollar’s Recent Weakness – Blip, Not New Trend

In past 2 months range-bound USD and Asian currencies, pull-back prone EM currencies and buoyant equities have performed in line with our forecast....

Olivier Desbarres

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