Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> posted 1Q21 results which were relatively soft YoY. Management noted that 1Q21 was still much stronger than 1Q19 and 1Q20 was an anomaly. AEM also shared annual guidance between 460-520M SGD for 2021. This was the first time management shared guidance for the year. Given AEM's history we believe this guidance is conservative.During the call the CEO and CFO were confident that growth would significantly pick up from 3Q21 as its largest customer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> ramps up requirement for its latest test handlers. Longer term the company is hopeful to announce multiple new significant customer wins by 2022. This has been a multi-year process which could now bear fruits next year and would be an important catalyst for the company. We remain convinced AEM also becomes an M&amp;A target at some point which provides downside support to the stock.Nothing in 1Q21 results changes the long-term bull thesis on AEM. Fair Value remains unchanged 5 SGD (40% upside).

AEM (AEM SP) posted 1Q21 results which were relatively soft YoY. Management noted that 1Q21 was still much stronger than 1Q19 and 1Q20 was an anomaly. AEM also shared annual guidance between 460-520M SGD for 2021. This was the first time management shared guidance for the year. Given AEM's history we believe this guidance is conservative.During the call the CEO and CFO were confident that growth would significantly pick up from 3Q21 as its largest customer Intel Corp (INTC US) ramps up requirement for its latest test handlers. Longer term the company is hopeful to announce multiple new significant customer wins by 2022. This has been a multi-year process which could now bear fruits next year and would be an important catalyst for the company. We remain convinced AEM also becomes an M&amp;A target at some point which provides downside support to the stock.Nothing in 1Q21 results changes the long-term bull thesis on AEM. Fair Value remains unchanged 5 SGD (40% upside). 

AEM: Temporary Weakness Creates Buying Opportunity Going into New Product Cycle as of 3Q21

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/chip-equipment-maker-asmpt-is-said-to-draw-takeover-interest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that PAG and other parties have expressed interest in taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> private. PAG also sounded out several lenders.</li>
<li>ASMPT has three substantial shareholders (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-international-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21096:1" rel="noopener">Asm International Nv (ASM NA)</a>, FIL Limited and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schroders-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22134:1" rel="noopener">Schroders PLC (SDR LN)</a>) which suggests a requirement for a reasonable takeover premium.</li>
<li>ASMPT previously denied a privatisation rumour in 2020. Nevertheless, peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$82-97 per share, 11-31% premium to the last close.  </li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reported that PAG and other parties have expressed interest in taking ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) private. PAG also sounded out several lenders.
ASMPT has three substantial shareholders (Asm International Nv (ASM NA), FIL Limited and Schroders PLC (SDR LN)) which suggests a requirement for a reasonable takeover premium.
ASMPT previously denied a privatisation rumour in 2020. Nevertheless, peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$82-97 per share, 11-31% premium to the last close.  


ASMPT (522 HK): PAG Potential Privatisation?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pentamaster-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15302:1" rel="noopener">Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK)</a> specialises in the manufacturing of automated testing equipment (ATE segment) and the provision of factory automated solutions (FAS segment). </li>
<li>Pentamaster's solid track record, exposure to structural trends (electric vehicles), profitability, cash generation and healthy balance sheet are attractive. The shares are up 12.9% YTD.</li>
<li>However, the shares reflect this story and the valuation looks full compared to peers and historical multiples. We like the fundamentals and would be buyers of any prolonged weakness.</li>
</ul>



Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) specialises in the manufacturing of automated testing equipment (ATE segment) and the provision of factory automated solutions (FAS segment). 
Pentamaster's solid track record, exposure to structural trends (electric vehicles), profitability, cash generation and healthy balance sheet are attractive. The shares are up 12.9% YTD.
However, the shares reflect this story and the valuation looks full compared to peers and historical multiples. We like the fundamentals and would be buyers of any prolonged weakness.


Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK): Good Story, at What Price?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us.

Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

United States

Cohu, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor test handling equipment to semiconductor manufacturers throughout the world.  The Company also manufactures closed circuit television, metal detection, and microwave equipment.

Cohu Inc (COHU US)

AEM: Temporary Weakness Creates Buying Opportunity Going into New Product Cycle as of 3Q21

AEM had a weaker quarter but it is very confident that a new growth cycle will start in 3Q21 well into 2022. New customer wins in 2022 could start...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

ASMPT (522 HK): PAG Potential Privatisation?

Bloomberg reported that PAG and other parties have expressed interest in taking ASMPT private. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price...

Arun George

Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK): Good Story, at What Price?

The shares have had a strong run and the valuation looks full compared to peers and historical multiples. We like the fundamentals and would be...

Arun George

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

We are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based...

Vermilion Research