Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>EM Fund managers continue to add to MENA allocations, yet underweights have increased to near record levels.</li>
<li>Saudi Arabia has been the driver of the recent allocation spike, with the average GEM fund allocation now at 1%</li>
<li>Fund activity over the last 6-months has favoured Qatar National Bank and Saudi Tadawul Group, with both seeing the percentage of funds invested increase.</li>
</ul>


EM Fund managers continue to add to MENA allocations, yet underweights have increased to near record levels.
Saudi Arabia has been the driver of the recent allocation spike, with the average GEM fund allocation now at 1%
Fund activity over the last 6-months has favoured Qatar National Bank and Saudi Tadawul Group, with both seeing the percentage of funds invested increase.


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Among EM banks, our top picks are Sberbank in Russia, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank in India; we are negative on recent IPO Nubank due to inflated market expectations</li>
<li>Our top picks for 2022 are BBVA and Banco BPM for Southern Europe banks. In Exchanges, we are positive on B3 of Brazil and SGX</li>
<li>In payments, we like Mastercard and Pagseguro, but we are negative on Paytm; we see BTG Pactual as an attractive pick and winner in the digital wealth managers and brokers</li>
</ul>


Among EM banks, our top picks are Sberbank in Russia, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank in India; we are negative on recent IPO Nubank due to inflated market expectations
Our top picks for 2022 are BBVA and Banco BPM for Southern Europe banks. In Exchanges, we are positive on B3 of Brazil and SGX
In payments, we like Mastercard and Pagseguro, but we are negative on Paytm; we see BTG Pactual as an attractive pick and winner in the digital wealth managers and brokers


2022 High Conviction Ideas in FinTech & Financials

<ul>
<li>MENA stocks hit record underweight among active Emerging Market managers</li>
<li>Only half of active managers have exposure to the region, less than 3% overweight.</li>
<li>Al Rajhi Bank is the investor favourite, though all stocks remain underinvested vs benchmark</li>
</ul>


MENA stocks hit record underweight among active Emerging Market managers
Only half of active managers have exposure to the region, less than 3% overweight.
Al Rajhi Bank is the investor favourite, though all stocks remain underinvested vs benchmark


<ul>
<li>We screen 35 GEM Banks in this report with its accompanying charts, and identify the following names as investment opportunities</li>
<li>In LatAm, we highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1" rel="noopener">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-financiero-banorte-o" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24780:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a> </li>
<li>In Asia, our preferred stocks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hana-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12843:1" rel="noopener">Hana Financial (086790 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commercial-international-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27625:1" rel="noopener">Commercial International Bank (COMI EY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sberbank-of-russia-pjsc-cde59529-fb78-4659-85d0-127942b44ba7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27581:1" rel="noopener">Sberbank of Russia PJSC (SBER RM)</a> stand out in CEMEA</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on these select GEM banks include worse than expected GDP growth leading to worse than anticipated credit quality and slower than expected loan growth, along with limited investor appetite for GEM banks</li>
</ul>


We screen 35 GEM Banks in this report with its accompanying charts, and identify the following names as investment opportunities
In LatAm, we highlight Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ) , Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF) and Credicorp Ltd (BAP US) 
In Asia, our preferred stocks are Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK) , China Construction Bank H (939 HK) , Hana Financial (086790 KS) and State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) 

Commercial International Bank (COMI EY) and Sberbank of Russia PJSC (SBER RM) stand out in CEMEA
Risks to our positive view on these select GEM banks include worse than expected GDP growth leading to worse than anticipated credit quality and slower than expected loan growth, along with limited investor appetite for GEM banks


Egypt

Commercial International Bank Egypt SAE (CIB) provides a range of financial services such as asset and liability products, securitization, direct investing, wealth management and treasury to enterprises, other institutions, households and high net worth individuals. The Bank, through its subsidiaries, offers life insurance, leasing & factoring, investment banking, brokerage and research

Commercial International Bank (COMI EY)

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

M.E.N.A Momentum

The MENA region has strong momentum in two distinct areas. As investment levels rise to record levels, so too does the net underweight versus the...

Steven Holden

2022 High Conviction Ideas in FinTech & Financials

Our 2022 high conviction ideas include buys on Sberbank, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank, as well as BBVA, Banco BPM, B3, SGX, Mastercard and...

Victor Galliano

Record MENA Underweight

MENA stocks hit record underweight among active Emerging Market managers. Only half of active EM managers are exposed to the region and less than...

Steven Holden

GEM Banks 1Q21 Screens

Our GEM bank picks are derived from value and growth, plus balance sheet, metrics; we highlight Banco do Brasil, Banorte, Credicorp, PSBC, CCB,...

Victor Galliano