Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

VAC Investments

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22869" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1">Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY)</a></h2>Crude prices continued to decline for the third straight week, ending Friday c.2% lower w/w. Price weakness was largely driven by - (i) the broader financial market sell-off; (ii) exacerbated by concerns around weaker Global demand and (iii) the risk of a lower than expected impact on crude supply from the reinstatement of Iranian sanctions next week. However, this was modestly mitigated by a larger than expected drop in US production inventories. WTI ended the week at USD 67.59/bbl while Brent ended at USD 77.62/bbl.

Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY)Crude prices continued to decline for the third straight week, ending Friday c.2% lower w/w. Price weakness was largely driven by - (i) the broader financial market sell-off; (ii) exacerbated by concerns around weaker Global demand and (iii) the risk of a lower than expected impact on crude supply from the reinstatement of Iranian sanctions next week. However, this was modestly mitigated by a larger than expected drop in US production inventories. WTI ended the week at USD 67.59/bbl while Brent ended at USD 77.62/bbl.

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Halloween falls on October 31. Short for “hallowed” evening or holy evening, it has been traditionally celebrated as a day to appease or scare off the evil spirits.
As we wrote this oil market round-up, we thought the analogy was apt. Only, it seems there is no “tricking” or “treating” the spirits visiting the oil markets! 
From the drip-feed of leaked information through last week about the horrifying murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the implications of a possible US-Saudi confrontation over the incident, to the red ink that keeps splashing over equities, and the approaching US sanctions against Iran, stakeholders in the oil markets have had a lot to take in.
The Khashoggi case is continuing to play out with all the ingredients of drama and intrigue, but it appears to have left the radar of the oil market. The possibility of US sanctions against Saudi Arabia looks remote and we certainly don't expect the Kingdom to use oil as a weapon in retaliation against any punitive measures that Washington might take against it.
Meanwhile, volatility in the financial markets continues, with a fresh bout of nervousness over the Chinese economy. That remains a dominant influence on oil market sentiment and will maintain downward pressure on crude prices. But we don't see too much downside, until the full impact of the US sanctions against Iran is felt in the market.

Halloween falls on October 31. Short for “hallowed” evening or holy evening, it has been traditionally celebrated as a day to appease or scare off the evil spirits.
As we wrote this oil market round-up, we thought the analogy was apt. Only, it seems there is no “tricking” or “treating” the spirits visiting the oil markets! 
From the drip-feed of leaked information through last week about the horrifying murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the implications of a possible US-Saudi confrontation over the incident, to the red ink that keeps splashing over equities, and the approaching US sanctions against Iran, stakeholders in the oil markets have had a lot to take in.
The Khashoggi case is continuing to play out with all the ingredients of drama and intrigue, but it appears to have left the radar of the oil market. The possibility of US sanctions against Saudi Arabia looks remote and we certainly don't expect the Kingdom to use oil as a weapon in retaliation against any punitive measures that Washington might take against it.
Meanwhile, volatility in the financial markets continues, with a fresh bout of nervousness over the Chinese economy. That remains a dominant influence on oil market sentiment and will maintain downward pressure on crude prices. But we don't see too much downside, until the full impact of the US sanctions against Iran is felt in the market.

Weekly Oil Views: Halloween Comes Early to the Oil Market

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Equity Bottom-Up

INVESTMENT VIEW:  A recent meeting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1142" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)</a> senior management highlighted: 1) strong growth in biodiesel from its Indonesian biodiesel allocations; 2) rebound potential for palm oil pricing given its current discount to diesel prices; 3) restructurings &amp; deleveraging from its bloated working capital and long-term investment account.
We stick with our earlier published note calling for Golden Agri (GAR) as a 5-year double potential: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/unloved-undervalued-adding-golden-agri-to-our-list-of-5-yr-doubles" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22237">Unloved &amp; Undervalued; Adding Golden Agri to Our List of 5-Yr Doubles</a>

INVESTMENT VIEW:  A recent meeting with Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) senior management highlighted: 1) strong growth in biodiesel from its Indonesian biodiesel allocations; 2) rebound potential for palm oil pricing given its current discount to diesel prices; 3) restructurings &amp; deleveraging from its bloated working capital and long-term investment account.
We stick with our earlier published note calling for Golden Agri (GAR) as a 5-year double potential: Unloved &amp; Undervalued; Adding Golden Agri to Our List of 5-Yr Doubles

Golden Agri Management Meeting Highlights Wins from Biodiesel & Restructuring Potential

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

Serious.  It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review.  The previous two weeks' were headed Trend termination pattern in the US? and Another critical juncture, respectively and all three are available on request from <a href="mailto:jo@mtsresearch.com" target="_blank">joanne@mtsresearch.com</a>.  This is my first post since 2nd July, because previous analysis did not attract a great deal of interest, possibly because, as Technical Analysis goes, it is quite "technical"!  And it was less obvious that we were on the verge of a bear market.  However, if we get a decent response to this offer, I will start posting here again.In any event, a belated thank you to all of you who did take an interest.

Serious.  It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review.  The previous two weeks' were headed Trend termination pattern in the US? and Another critical juncture, respectively and all three are available on request from joanne@mtsresearch.com.  This is my first post since 2nd July, because previous analysis did not attract a great deal of interest, possibly because, as Technical Analysis goes, it is quite "technical"!  And it was less obvious that we were on the verge of a bear market.  However, if we get a decent response to this offer, I will start posting here again.In any event, a belated thank you to all of you who did take an interest.

Crude tumbled 6-7% from its four-year high last week amid a shocking global stock markets rout, reminiscent of the financial markets turmoil of February this year. 
While investors’ jitters are similar this time and crude is likely to be dragged along if the financial markets continue on a roller-coaster ride, we expect the downside to be limited, as long as the Iran sanctions factor remains in play. 
At the same time, we are maintaining the view that crude’s rally doesn’t have much more room left. OECD stocks have been rising for the past few months, OPEC+ output is substantially higher, and last week the IEA, OPEC as well as the EIA revised down their projections for global oil demand growth.
While we concede that the full impact of the US sanctions against Iran has yet to be felt, we expect OPEC+ will continue stretching to its production limits and the US will use sanction waivers and the release of barrels from its strategic reserves if needed as safety valves to let some steam out from crude prices.

Crude tumbled 6-7% from its four-year high last week amid a shocking global stock markets rout, reminiscent of the financial markets turmoil of February this year. 
While investors’ jitters are similar this time and crude is likely to be dragged along if the financial markets continue on a roller-coaster ride, we expect the downside to be limited, as long as the Iran sanctions factor remains in play. 
At the same time, we are maintaining the view that crude’s rally doesn’t have much more room left. OECD stocks have been rising for the past few months, OPEC+ output is substantially higher, and last week the IEA, OPEC as well as the EIA revised down their projections for global oil demand growth.
While we concede that the full impact of the US sanctions against Iran has yet to be felt, we expect OPEC+ will continue stretching to its production limits and the US will use sanction waivers and the release of barrels from its strategic reserves if needed as safety valves to let some steam out from crude prices.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Slides in Sympathy with Equities but Downside Looks Limited

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 27

Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY)Crude prices continued to decline for the third straight week, ending Friday c.2% lower w/w. Price weakness was largely...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Weekly Oil Views: Halloween Comes Early to the Oil Market

Halloween falls on October 31. Short for “hallowed” evening or holy evening, it has been traditionally celebrated as a day to appease or scare off...

Vandana Hari

Golden Agri Management Meeting Highlights Wins from Biodiesel & Restructuring Potential

INVESTMENT VIEW: A recent meeting with Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) senior management highlighted: 1) strong growth in biodiesel from its...

Charles Spencer

S&P 500: How Serious Is This Sell-Off?

Serious. It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review. The previous...

Peter Beuttell

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Slides in Sympathy with Equities but Downside Looks Limited

Crude tumbled 6-7% from its four-year high last week amid a shocking global stock markets rout, reminiscent of the financial markets turmoil of...

Vandana Hari

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