Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>OPEC cuts demand growth estimates for the third consecutive month, lowering its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 4.9% and 5.7%, respectively, citing demand weakness in China.</li>
<li>Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.32m bpd in September, exceeding the target by 180k bpd.</li>
<li>The EIA reduced its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to September's sharp decline but expects prices to rise from current levels on declining oil inventories.</li>
</ul>


OPEC cuts demand growth estimates for the third consecutive month, lowering its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 4.9% and 5.7%, respectively, citing demand weakness in China.
Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.32m bpd in September, exceeding the target by 180k bpd.
The EIA reduced its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to September's sharp decline but expects prices to rise from current levels on declining oil inventories.


OPEC, EIA, and IEA Slash Demand Forecasts Again; EIA Sees US LNG Exports Boosting Henry Hub Prices

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 11/Oct, US crude inventories decreased by 2.2m barrels, diverging from expectations of a 1.8m barrel build. Additionally, gasoline and distillate stockpiles also declined more than anticipated.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 76 Bcf for the week ending 11/Oct, lower than analyst expectations of an 80 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, analysts kept their Buy ratings on Reliance despite its net profit falling by 4.8% YoY.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 11/Oct, US crude inventories decreased by 2.2m barrels, diverging from expectations of a 1.8m barrel build. Additionally, gasoline and distillate stockpiles also declined more than anticipated.
US natural gas inventories rose 76 Bcf for the week ending 11/Oct, lower than analyst expectations of an 80 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, analysts kept their Buy ratings on Reliance despite its net profit falling by 4.8% YoY.


[ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The fiscal briefings from China last weekend were exactly what we feared and have been warning about—a big nothing burger.</li><li>China keeps applying supply-side measures to a demand-driven problem, which is unlikely to succeed.</li><li>What China really needs is a forced increase in demand across the system, but instead, they’re focused on trying to incentivize demand for assets or reshuffle credit profiles.</li></ul>

The fiscal briefings from China last weekend were exactly what we feared and have been warning about—a big nothing burger.China keeps applying supply-side measures to a demand-driven problem, which is unlikely to succeed.What China really needs is a forced increase in demand across the system, but instead, they’re focused on trying to incentivize demand for assets or reshuffle credit profiles.

The Drill: Geopolitical risk premium in crude now almost gone

<ul>
<li>WTI futures rose by 1.6% for the week ending 11/Oct, as the simmering tensions in the Middle East outweighed persistent demand concerns.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.52 from 0.64 (04/Oct) as put volume dropped by 50.9% WoW while call volume fell by 39.8%.</li>
<li>WTI OI PCR was unchanged at 0.76 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.7% WoW, while put OI grew by 5.8%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures rose by 1.6% for the week ending 11/Oct, as the simmering tensions in the Middle East outweighed persistent demand concerns.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.52 from 0.64 (04/Oct) as put volume dropped by 50.9% WoW while call volume fell by 39.8%.
WTI OI PCR was unchanged at 0.76 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.7% WoW, while put OI grew by 5.8%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/41] China's Weakness Poses Risk to WTI's Recent Two-Week Gains

<ul>
<li>The US oil and gas rig count rose by one to 586 for the week ending 11/Oct, marking an increase after falling for three consecutive weeks.</li>
<li>The US oil rig count increased by two to 481. Meanwhile, gas rigs decreased by one to 101, after gaining six rigs over the last two weeks.</li>
<li>For the week ending 11/Oct, US energy producers added six rigs in Texas and one in Oklahoma but cut two each in Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and New Mexico.</li>
</ul>


The US oil and gas rig count rose by one to 586 for the week ending 11/Oct, marking an increase after falling for three consecutive weeks.
The US oil rig count increased by two to 481. Meanwhile, gas rigs decreased by one to 101, after gaining six rigs over the last two weeks.
For the week ending 11/Oct, US energy producers added six rigs in Texas and one in Oklahoma but cut two each in Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and New Mexico.


US Rig Count Rises After Falling for Three Consecutive Weeks

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

OPEC, EIA, and IEA Slash Demand Forecasts Again; EIA Sees US LNG Exports Boosting Henry Hub Prices

OPEC and EIA cut demand growth estimates for 2024 and 2025, citing weakness in China, while EIA lowers oil price forecasts for the same years but...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook

US oil inventories see a surprise fall, while US nat-gas stock rises less than expected. Chevron sees a target price upgrade while HSBC expects a...

Mint Finance

The Drill: Geopolitical risk premium in crude now almost gone

The fiscal briefings from China last weekend were exactly what we feared and have been warning about—a big nothing burger. China keeps applying...

Steno Research

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/41] China's Weakness Poses Risk to WTI's Recent Two-Week Gains

WTI futures rose 1.6%, supported by escalating tensions in the Middle East, despite concerns over demand. However, a disappointing Chinese stimulus...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Rises After Falling for Three Consecutive Weeks

For the week ending 11/Oct, the US rig count grew by 1 to 586. Oil rigs increased by 2, while gas rigs fell by 1. US oil and gas producers added...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OPEC, EIA, and IEA Slash Demand Forecasts Again; EIA Sees US LNG Exports Boosting Henry Hub Prices

​OPEC and EIA cut demand growth estimates for 2024 and 2025, citing weakness in China, while EIA lowers oil price forecasts for the same years but...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook

​US oil inventories see a surprise fall, while US nat-gas stock rises less than expected. Chevron sees a target price upgrade while HSBC expects a...

Mint Finance

The Drill: Geopolitical risk premium in crude now almost gone

The fiscal briefings from China last weekend were exactly what we feared and have been warning about—a big nothing burger. China keeps applying...

Steno Research

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/41] China's Weakness Poses Risk to WTI's Recent Two-Week Gains

WTI futures rose 1.6%, supported by escalating tensions in the Middle East, despite concerns over demand. However, a disappointing Chinese stimulus...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Rises After Falling for Three Consecutive Weeks

For the week ending 11/Oct, the US rig count grew by 1 to 586. Oil rigs increased by 2, while gas rigs fell by 1. US oil and gas producers added...

Mint Finance

OPEC and EIA cut demand growth estimates for 2024 and 2025, citing weakness in China, while EIA lowers oil price forecasts for the same years but...

US oil inventories see a surprise fall, while US nat-gas stock rises less than expected. Chevron sees a target price upgrade while HSBC expects a...