Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hi all, Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics.</li><li>This will allow us to be even more actionable and specific when analyzing global events, as the ramifications of war and peace are most often felt in the commodity space.</li><li>Take aways: Increasing crude production in the current environment likely means a &gt;25% drop in crude oil prices. <span style="font-weight: 400;">There’s significant open interest in December crude put options. Geopolitically, major players are closely monitoring OPEC’s decisions.</span></li></ul>

Hi all, Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics.This will allow us to be even more actionable and specific when analyzing global events, as the ramifications of war and peace are most often felt in the commodity space.Take aways: Increasing crude production in the current environment likely means a &gt;25% drop in crude oil prices. There’s significant open interest in December crude put options. Geopolitically, major players are closely monitoring OPEC’s decisions.

Energy Cable/Great Game: OPEC, things could get ugly!

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count fell by two to 583 for the week ending 30/Aug, marking a decline in rig count for the third straight week.</li>
<li>The US oil rig count remained unchanged at 483 for the second consecutive week. Meanwhile, gas rigs declined by two to 95, marking their lowest level since April 2021.</li>
<li>For the week ending 23/Aug, US crude oil production declined to 13.3m bpd bpd, down from the record high of 13.4m bpd reached the previous week.</li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count fell by two to 583 for the week ending 30/Aug, marking a decline in rig count for the third straight week.
The US oil rig count remained unchanged at 483 for the second consecutive week. Meanwhile, gas rigs declined by two to 95, marking their lowest level since April 2021.
For the week ending 23/Aug, US crude oil production declined to 13.3m bpd bpd, down from the record high of 13.4m bpd reached the previous week.


US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week Led by a Decline in Gas Rigs

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 23/Aug, US crude inventories fell by 846k barrels, while analysts expected a 2.7 mb drawdown. Gasoline stocks dropped more than expected, while distillate inventories unexpectedly rose.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 23/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 33 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.1% above the 5-year seasonal average</li>
<li>Exxon expects global crude oil demand to remain around 100m bpd through 2050. Brokerages lowered target prices on Occidental and Halliburton.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 23/Aug, US crude inventories fell by 846k barrels, while analysts expected a 2.7 mb drawdown. Gasoline stocks dropped more than expected, while distillate inventories unexpectedly rose.
US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 23/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 33 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.1% above the 5-year seasonal average
Exxon expects global crude oil demand to remain around 100m bpd through 2050. Brokerages lowered target prices on Occidental and Halliburton.


[ETP 2024/35] Crude Oil Slips Amid Demand Concerns; Nat-Gas Under Pressure from Oversupply

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count fell by one to 585 for the week ending 23/Aug, marking a decline in rig count for the second straight week.</li>
<li>US oil rig count was unchanged at 483, after falling by two the week prior. Gas rigs fell by one to 97, after rising by one the previous week.</li>
<li>For the week ending 16/Aug, US crude oil production rose back to its record high of 13.4m bpd, after slipping down to 13.3m bpd the week prior.  </li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count fell by one to 585 for the week ending 23/Aug, marking a decline in rig count for the second straight week.
US oil rig count was unchanged at 483, after falling by two the week prior. Gas rigs fell by one to 97, after rising by one the previous week.
For the week ending 16/Aug, US crude oil production rose back to its record high of 13.4m bpd, after slipping down to 13.3m bpd the week prior.  


US Rig Count Drops for Second Consecutive Week as Gas Rigs Dip

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Energy Cable/Great Game: OPEC, things could get ugly!

Hi all,Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics. This will allow us to be even more...

Steno Research

US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week Led by a Decline in Gas Rigs

For the week ending 30/Aug, US rig count fell by 2 to 583. Oil rig count stayed flat again while the gas rig count fell to its lowest since April...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/35] Crude Oil Slips Amid Demand Concerns; Nat-Gas Under Pressure from Oversupply

Weak U.S. crude withdrawal heightens demand concerns, while Libya and Israel-Hamas supply risks offer support. Exxon sees strong oil demand until...

Mint Finance

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

US Rig Count Drops for Second Consecutive Week as Gas Rigs Dip

For the week ending 23/Aug, the US rig count fell by 1 to 585. Oil rig count stayed flat while the gas rig count fell by 1. US crude output inched...

Mint Finance

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