Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 already.</li><li>The Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls via keeping the market tight. '</li><li>Our models are close to entering a long oil bet again..</li></ul>

Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 already.The Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls via keeping the market tight. 'Our models are close to entering a long oil bet again..

Energy Cable: Saudis are pushing hard for a new oil bull market

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted Just two weeks ago, the most-active contract hit a record of almost $12,000 a ton as the industry grappled with the fallout of severe supply shortages.</li><li>“It’s important to underscore that the recent downturn in cocoa prices is primarily a result of trading maneuvers, not a realignment of market fundamentals,” analysts at Fitch Solutions’ BMI unit said in a note, adding they expect volatility to persist.</li><li>Volatility spiked as bigger margin requirements spurred traders to close out positions, helping to drive aggregate open interest in cocoa futures to the lowest in more than a decade.</li></ul>

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted Just two weeks ago, the most-active contract hit a record of almost $12,000 a ton as the industry grappled with the fallout of severe supply shortages.“It’s important to underscore that the recent downturn in cocoa prices is primarily a result of trading maneuvers, not a realignment of market fundamentals,” analysts at Fitch Solutions’ BMI unit said in a note, adding they expect volatility to persist.Volatility spiked as bigger margin requirements spurred traders to close out positions, helping to drive aggregate open interest in cocoa futures to the lowest in more than a decade.

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted & Central Banks Buy Gold

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>US Nonfarm Payrolls shows disappointing growth in jobs, much lower than the anticipated addition of 243,000 jobs.</li>
<li>April’s print is also lower than the average monthly gain of 242,000 jobs over the previous 12 months.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate comes in at 3.9%, marginally higher than analyst expectations of 3.8%.</li>
</ul>


US Nonfarm Payrolls shows disappointing growth in jobs, much lower than the anticipated addition of 243,000 jobs.
April’s print is also lower than the average monthly gain of 242,000 jobs over the previous 12 months.
Unemployment rate comes in at 3.9%, marginally higher than analyst expectations of 3.8%.


Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Energy Cable: Saudis are pushing hard for a new oil bull market

Take aways:Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 alreadyThe Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls...

Steno Research

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted & Central Banks Buy Gold

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted Just two weeks ago, the most-active contract hit a record of almost $12,000 a ton as the industry grappled with the...

The Commodity Report

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...

Mint Finance

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Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Energy Cable: Saudis are pushing hard for a new oil bull market

Take aways:Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 alreadyThe Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls...

Steno Research

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted & Central Banks Buy Gold

-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted Just two weeks ago, the most-active contract hit a record of almost $12,000 a ton as the industry grappled with the...

The Commodity Report

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

​US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...

Mint Finance

US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...