Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch.</li><li>We have returned -0,87% in our Macro Alpha Portfolio this week as of the time of writing, which is a decent return profile given the drawdowns seen across the asset universe.</li><li>We have been sitting on our hands due to the trickiness of timing the missiles flying back and forth in the Middle East and due to our lack of conviction that the timing is right to re-enter riskier bets.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch.We have returned -0,87% in our Macro Alpha Portfolio this week as of the time of writing, which is a decent return profile given the drawdowns seen across the asset universe.We have been sitting on our hands due to the trickiness of timing the missiles flying back and forth in the Middle East and due to our lack of conviction that the timing is right to re-enter riskier bets.

<ul><li>Welcome to a short and sweet Scandi special.</li><li>After years of working at the biggest bank in the Nordics, I have developed a strong understanding of the rate path model of Norges Bank and we have developed a “cheat sheet” that can live track the path, if it was to be hypothetically updated daily.</li><li>The overwhelming conclusion is that the path has shifted in a dovish direction since the MPR-1 meeting in March in contrast to global developments.</li></ul>

Welcome to a short and sweet Scandi special.After years of working at the biggest bank in the Nordics, I have developed a strong understanding of the rate path model of Norges Bank and we have developed a “cheat sheet” that can live track the path, if it was to be hypothetically updated daily.The overwhelming conclusion is that the path has shifted in a dovish direction since the MPR-1 meeting in March in contrast to global developments.

Scandi Watch: Assessing the path for SEK and NOK rates

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports <em>that are currently being tested</em> would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Greetings from a sunny but windy Copenhagen where we bring you a short but chart heavy edition of the Energy Cable.</li><li>What a week in macro and markets, huh?</li><li>The CPI print out of the US confirmed our tilt towards a reacceleration of inflation and the difficulties Powell faces in getting to the 2% target.</li></ul>

Greetings from a sunny but windy Copenhagen where we bring you a short but chart heavy edition of the Energy Cable.What a week in macro and markets, huh?The CPI print out of the US confirmed our tilt towards a reacceleration of inflation and the difficulties Powell faces in getting to the 2% target.

Energy Cable: Good Luck Reaching Your 2% Target, Powell

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Last week’s inflation data surprised market participants on the upside. CPI YoY: 3,2% vs. 3,1% estimate. Core CPI m/m: 0,4% vs 0,3% estimated</li><li>Even larger was the upside surprise in the PPI data. Friends of the 70s double-dip inflation scenario will probably love this chart.</li><li>Take a closer look at the 70s and how inflation recovered before it take of in the late 70s for another rip higher.</li></ul>

Last week’s inflation data surprised market participants on the upside. CPI YoY: 3,2% vs. 3,1% estimate. Core CPI m/m: 0,4% vs 0,3% estimatedEven larger was the upside surprise in the PPI data. Friends of the 70s double-dip inflation scenario will probably love this chart.Take a closer look at the 70s and how inflation recovered before it take of in the late 70s for another rip higher.

Inflation Surprises as Commodities Rip Higher

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Portfolio Watch: Sitting on our hands

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch. We have returned -0,87% in our Macro Alpha Portfolio this week as of the time of writing, which is a decent...

Steno Research

Scandi Watch: Assessing the path for SEK and NOK rates

Welcome to a short and sweet Scandi special. After years of working at the biggest bank in the Nordics, I have developed a strong understanding of...

Steno Research

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

Energy Cable: Good Luck Reaching Your 2% Target, Powell

Greetings from a sunny but windy Copenhagen where we bring you a short but chart heavy edition of the Energy Cable. What a week in macro and...

Steno Research

Inflation Surprises as Commodities Rip Higher

Last week’s inflation data surprised market participants on the upside. CPI YoY: 3,2% vs. 3,1% estimate. Core CPI m/m: 0,4% vs 0,3% estimated

The Commodity Report

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52-week Range

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