IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a> is a biopharmaceutical company with an integrated platform for product development and commercialisation of drugs in the oncology and severe infection therapeutic areas. </div><div>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-ipo-initiation-a-hard-sell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48114" rel="noopener">SciClone Pharmaceuticals IPO Initiation: A Hard Sell</a>, we stated that SciClone is a less than ideal IPO candidate. Despite efforts at diversification, SciClone is highly dependent on a single product, Zadaxin, which was launched in 1996. The risk to Zadaxin’s sales remains undiminished. The large pre-IPO dividends by existing shareholders in face of these challenges also sends the wrong message to potential IPO investors. Overall, on a fundamental basis, we are inclined to give this IPO a pass. </div><div>SciClone has launched its Hong Kong IPO at an indicative price range of HK$17.20-18.80 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$1,950.4 million ($252 million), at the mid-point of the price range. The raise is materially below the original target of a $500 million raise. Eleven cornerstone investors will subscribe for $133.7 million of the offer shares (49.65% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price). The cornerstone investors are largely domestic funds and lack international blue-chip names.</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight">Relative valuation suggests that SciClone trades at a material discount to peers at the proposed IPO price range. We think that this discount is warranted due to SciClone's heavy reliance on Zadaxin, which faces ongoing challenges. Consequently, we are inclined to give this IPO a pass as our concerns on the fundamentals more than offset the "cheap" valuation.</div></div></div>

Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK) is a biopharmaceutical company with an integrated platform for product development and commercialisation of drugs in the oncology and severe infection therapeutic areas. In SciClone Pharmaceuticals IPO Initiation: A Hard Sell, we stated that SciClone is a less than ideal IPO candidate. Despite efforts at diversification, SciClone is highly dependent on a single product, Zadaxin, which was launched in 1996. The risk to Zadaxin’s sales remains undiminished. The large pre-IPO dividends by existing shareholders in face of these challenges also sends the wrong message to potential IPO investors. Overall, on a fundamental basis, we are inclined to give this IPO a pass. SciClone has launched its Hong Kong IPO at an indicative price range of HK$17.20-18.80 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$1,950.4 million ($252 million), at the mid-point of the price range. The raise is materially below the original target of a $500 million raise. Eleven cornerstone investors will subscribe for $133.7 million of the offer shares (49.65% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price). The cornerstone investors are largely domestic funds and lack international blue-chip names.Relative valuation suggests that SciClone trades at a material discount to peers at the proposed IPO price range. We think that this discount is warranted due to SciClone's heavy reliance on Zadaxin, which faces ongoing challenges. Consequently, we are inclined to give this IPO a pass as our concerns on the fundamentals more than offset the "cheap" valuation.

SciClone Pharmaceuticals IPO: Valuation Insights

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

On January 29th, 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luye-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:488:1" rel="noopener">Luye Pharma (2186 HK)</a> announced a subscription agreement with Hillhouse NEV, involving HK$1.25 billion of investment from Hillhouse in exchange for issuing of new shares. The subscription price of the new shares was HK$4.28/share, a premium of approximately 10.03% over the closing price of HK$3.89/share on January 29th. Once the deals are completed, Hillhouse NEV will have a 15.60% stake in Luye, making it the second largest shareholder of the Company. The news had an immediate boost to share prices. Luye's shares opened sharply higher on Monday (February 1st), trading as high as HK$7, up 79.95% from Friday's close of HK$3.89/share. It surged again on Wednesday (February 3rd), up 11.3%, and then started to fall back on Thursday. By the end of February 5th, Luye's share price was HK$6.19. So, could the magic of Hillhouse last long?

On January 29th, 2021, Luye Pharma (2186 HK) announced a subscription agreement with Hillhouse NEV, involving HK$1.25 billion of investment from Hillhouse in exchange for issuing of new shares. The subscription price of the new shares was HK$4.28/share, a premium of approximately 10.03% over the closing price of HK$3.89/share on January 29th. Once the deals are completed, Hillhouse NEV will have a 15.60% stake in Luye, making it the second largest shareholder of the Company. The news had an immediate boost to share prices. Luye's shares opened sharply higher on Monday (February 1st), trading as high as HK$7, up 79.95% from Friday's close of HK$3.89/share. It surged again on Wednesday (February 3rd), up 11.3%, and then started to fall back on Thursday. By the end of February 5th, Luye's share price was HK$6.19. So, could the magic of Hillhouse last long?

Luye Pharma (2186.HK) - Could the Magic of Hillhouse Last Long?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

1. Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>The official document about the 4th volume-based purchase (VBP) was issued to clarify the relevant varieties and rules, and the bidding will start on February 3rd, 2021.</li>
<li>Biobanks and vaccines are the main driving force for the overall cryogenic storage market to continue to grow at a high rate in the future.</li>
<li>Currently, the “AI + medical” industry is in a period of rapid growth.</li>
</ul>2. Company news:News about the progress of innovative medical device, new drugs and new licensing agreement from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/venus-medtech-hangzhou-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28257:1" rel="noopener">Venus MedTech (2500 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gracell-biotechnologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31108:1" rel="noopener">Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (GRCL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphamab-oncology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28213:1" rel="noopener">Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK)</a>.3. Market review: Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 7.79%, while CSI 300 increased 2.05% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints:
The official document about the 4th volume-based purchase (VBP) was issued to clarify the relevant varieties and rules, and the bidding will start on February 3rd, 2021.
Biobanks and vaccines are the main driving force for the overall cryogenic storage market to continue to grow at a high rate in the future.
Currently, the “AI + medical” industry is in a period of rapid growth.
2. Company news:News about the progress of innovative medical device, new drugs and new licensing agreement from Venus MedTech (2500 HK), Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (GRCL US), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), and Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK).3. Market review: Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 7.79%, while CSI 300 increased 2.05% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

In February 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bio-thera-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29127:1" rel="noopener">Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH)</a> completed its listing on the SSE STAR Market. Then in 2020/2H, Bio-Thera planned to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming another biopharmaceutical company with "A+H" listing. Currently the Company’s market value was about RMB13.5 billion. So how about this company? The following provides the insights on its pipeline and related competitive landscape.

In February 2020, Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH) completed its listing on the SSE STAR Market. Then in 2020/2H, Bio-Thera planned to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming another biopharmaceutical company with "A+H" listing. Currently the Company’s market value was about RMB13.5 billion. So how about this company? The following provides the insights on its pipeline and related competitive landscape. 

Pre-IPO Bio-Thera Solutions - Insights on Pipeline and the Competitive Landscape

1. Industry viewpoints: <ul>
<li>For a long time, the National Healthcare Security Administration has explicitly mentioned to include the traditional Chinese medicines into volume-based purchase (VBP) and the related policy is now in process.</li>
<li>Vaccine is a hot topic in 2020, so it deserves further discussion.</li>
<li>In terms of future trend, the IVD industry will undergo profound changes in the next five years.</li>
</ul>2. Company news:News about the new agreement and the progress of new drugs from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascentage-pharma-group-inter" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27824:1" rel="noopener">Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascletis-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27265:1" rel="noopener">Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK).</a>3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 5.98%, while CSI 300 increased 1.71% over the same period of time.4. Risk Disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints: 
For a long time, the National Healthcare Security Administration has explicitly mentioned to include the traditional Chinese medicines into volume-based purchase (VBP) and the related policy is now in process.
Vaccine is a hot topic in 2020, so it deserves further discussion.
In terms of future trend, the IVD industry will undergo profound changes in the next five years.
2. Company news:News about the new agreement and the progress of new drugs from Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK), Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK), and Antengene (6996 HK).3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 5.98%, while CSI 300 increased 1.71% over the same period of time.4. Risk Disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products.  The Company's products include vitamin C, antibiotics and common generic drugs. The Company is also engages in the development of innovative drugs and antibiotics.

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CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)

SciClone Pharmaceuticals IPO: Valuation Insights

SciClone has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of $252m, at the mid-point of the price range. We recommend a pass as our concerns on the...

Arun George

Luye Pharma (2186.HK) - Could the Magic of Hillhouse Last Long?

This article analyzed Luye Pharma after the subscription agreement with Hillhouse in terms of the past performance, insights on recent changes, and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.22)

The article analyzed the new official document for the volume-based purchase,industry viewpoints on China cryogenic storage market and “AI +...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Bio-Thera Solutions - Insights on Pipeline and the Competitive Landscape

This article summarized the insights on major products of Bio-Thera Solutions in the pipeline and related competitive landscape with other key...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.4)

This article summarized the updated news in China volume-based purchase policy, industry viewpoints, company news, and capital market review for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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