European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Atlas’s offer for perennial takeover target <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-la-rue-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21901:1" rel="noopener">De La Rue PLC (DLAR LN)</a> is underpinned by a historic brand, strong order book, and post-sale cash buffer, with pension resolution and execution certainty.</li>
<li>The £263m all-cash bid implies a 12.47x EV/EBITDA multiple, offering shareholders a 130p exit, cum-dividend, strong execution certainty, and over 40% committed shareholder support.</li>
<li>With 91.7% market-implied completion probability and an annualized return of 4.5% at 128.5p, the deal presents an attractive, de-risked arbitrage opportunity with limited downside and credible upside closure.</li>
</ul>


Atlas’s offer for perennial takeover target De La Rue PLC (DLAR LN) is underpinned by a historic brand, strong order book, and post-sale cash buffer, with pension resolution and execution certainty.
The £263m all-cash bid implies a 12.47x EV/EBITDA multiple, offering shareholders a 130p exit, cum-dividend, strong execution certainty, and over 40% committed shareholder support.
With 91.7% market-implied completion probability and an annualized return of 4.5% at 128.5p, the deal presents an attractive, de-risked arbitrage opportunity with limited downside and credible upside closure.


A Note-Worthy Exit: Atlas Takes Over De La Rue

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Value Act, as activist, believes the KKR's <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon Corp (7732 JP)</a></strong> is not being done at the right price. But Value Act will now tender shares and invest in Bidco. </li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a></strong>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iluka-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10105:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Iluka Resources (ILU AU</strong>)</a> are the only Australian companies with confirmed (or near-term) refining specific heavy rare earth elements as China restricts exports.</li>
<li>StraCap has been tilting at the <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wakita-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11924:1" rel="noopener">Wakita (8125 JP)</a></strong> for years. It hasn't made headway. The only way StraCap will get its measures over the line is by soliciting retail.</li>
</ul>


Value Act, as activist, believes the KKR's Topcon Corp (7732 JP) is not being done at the right price. But Value Act will now tender shares and invest in Bidco. 

Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)and Iluka Resources (ILU AU) are the only Australian companies with confirmed (or near-term) refining specific heavy rare earth elements as China restricts exports.
StraCap has been tilting at the Wakita (8125 JP) for years. It hasn't made headway. The only way StraCap will get its measures over the line is by soliciting retail.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Topcon, Heavy Rare Earth Elements, Wakita, Swire/Cathay, Horizon Robotics

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<div>The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Additionally, the mild deterioration in market dynamics that we discussed the past two weeks is now much less of a concern. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Health Care.</div>

The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Additionally, the mild deterioration in market dynamics that we discussed the past two weeks is now much less of a concern. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Health Care.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

United Kingdom

De La Rue plc group specializes in the supply of cash handling equipment and security products.  The Company produces approximately 150 national currencies, electric transaction solutions and identity systems.  Their various security items include stamps, vouchers, passports, travelers checks, drivers licenses and ATM mechanisms, as well as security papers, threads and tear tapes.

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De La Rue PLC (DLAR LN)

A Note-Worthy Exit: Atlas Takes Over De La Rue

Atlas offers 130p per share for De La Rue, unlocking value from a historic banknote maker through pension de-risking, operational upside, and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Topcon, Heavy Rare Earth Elements, Wakita, Swire/Cathay, Horizon Robotics

It’s Sunday (and Easter)! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Continue to buy dips.

Vermilion Research

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