Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.</li>
<li>USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.</li>
</ul>


Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.
Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.
USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.


Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to this short labor market watch on the back of this week’s NFIB and CPI numbers.</li><li>Currently the labor market has softened considerably from tight conditions in 2022, yet there is still some time before this slowdown potentially leads to a recession.</li><li>From the NFIB numbers we already got more hints of the deflationary trends suggested by this month’s CPI report as price plans continue their decrease.</li></ul>

Welcome to this short labor market watch on the back of this week’s NFIB and CPI numbers.Currently the labor market has softened considerably from tight conditions in 2022, yet there is still some time before this slowdown potentially leads to a recession.From the NFIB numbers we already got more hints of the deflationary trends suggested by this month’s CPI report as price plans continue their decrease.

Labor Watch: This doesn’t exactly scream recession (yet) …

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We already addressed the US CPI report in our “Week at a Glance”.</li><li>Tomorrow’s US CPI report is the make-or-break moment we’ve been waiting for.</li><li>To keep the risk asset party alive, we need a soft outcome, and it looks like we might just get it.</li></ul>

We already addressed the US CPI report in our “Week at a Glance”.Tomorrow’s US CPI report is the make-or-break moment we’ve been waiting for.To keep the risk asset party alive, we need a soft outcome, and it looks like we might just get it.

<ul><li>We haven’t made significant changes to our portfolio in recent days due to a lack of conviction in the current market price action.</li><li>However, we are not blind to the risks currently present in the US economic cycle.</li><li>The job market is normalizing linearly, but the risk is that it normalizes linearly until it weakens exponentially.</li></ul>

We haven’t made significant changes to our portfolio in recent days due to a lack of conviction in the current market price action.However, we are not blind to the risks currently present in the US economic cycle.The job market is normalizing linearly, but the risk is that it normalizes linearly until it weakens exponentially.

Portfolio Watch: Not worth betting on a recession (yet)

<ul><li>It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest ISM report in years.</li><li>The percentage of respondents reporting higher New Orders has weakened to levels only seen during the GFC.</li><li>So, is it time to buy puts and canned food and head for the cellars?</li></ul>

It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest ISM report in years.The percentage of respondents reporting higher New Orders has weakened to levels only seen during the GFC.So, is it time to buy puts and canned food and head for the cellars?

Business Cycle Watch: Is the US in a recession already? Here are the pros and cons

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

Former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally. Initial assessment suggests that shooting will boost Trump’s chances of winning the...

Mint Finance

Labor Watch: This doesn’t exactly scream recession (yet) …

Take aways: This currently looks more like normalization than weakening More fuel to the story of an income driven cycleThe productivity /...

Steno Research

US CPI Preview: Taking clues from China?

We already addressed the US CPI report in our “Week at a Glance”. Tomorrow’s US CPI report is the make-or-break moment we’ve been waiting for. To...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Not worth betting on a recession (yet)

We haven’t made significant changes to our portfolio in recent days due to a lack of conviction in the current market price action. However, we...

Steno Research

Business Cycle Watch: Is the US in a recession already? Here are the pros and cons

It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest...

Steno Research

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