Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The combination of policy decisions in the US rates markets has led to a significant decline in tenure yields.</li><li>There appears to be policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, with the treasury displaying flexibility and the Fed focusing on tightening in financial conditions.</li><li>The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to provide forward guidance on policy tightening, with expectations of a move towards a neutral bias and steps towards eventual easing or cutting. Inflation language in the statement may also be up for debate.</li></ul><p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The combination of policy decisions in the US rates markets has led to a significant decline in tenure yields.There appears to be policy coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, with the treasury displaying flexibility and the Fed focusing on tightening in financial conditions.The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to provide forward guidance on policy tightening, with expectations of a move towards a neutral bias and steps towards eventual easing or cutting. Inflation language in the statement may also be up for debate.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: The Calm Before The (Policy) Storm

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As we laid out last week our hands are up in the air long everything like we just don’t care- except bonds.</li><li>The reason is that the existing regime we were left with late last year with liquidity stacking up and growth fueled by Bidenomics remains fairly accommodative for risk assets while the debt issuance the treasury is burdened with these days is keeping a floor on the yields.</li><li>What we have been pondering of late is whether the enduring inflation risk we’ve flagged will be accompanied by a corresponding persistence in growth.</li></ul>

As we laid out last week our hands are up in the air long everything like we just don’t care- except bonds.The reason is that the existing regime we were left with late last year with liquidity stacking up and growth fueled by Bidenomics remains fairly accommodative for risk assets while the debt issuance the treasury is burdened with these days is keeping a floor on the yields.What we have been pondering of late is whether the enduring inflation risk we’ve flagged will be accompanied by a corresponding persistence in growth.

Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit

<ul><li>The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours dissipate or prove unfounded</li><li>We prefer to maintain a long position in China but through proxies with broader exposure, despite appealing low valuations in equities.</li><li>While there’s debate over US growth, markets are reevaluating it upwards, and we remain bullish on risk and the USD.</li></ul>

The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours dissipate or prove unfoundedWe prefer to maintain a long position in China but through proxies with broader exposure, despite appealing low valuations in equities.While there’s debate over US growth, markets are reevaluating it upwards, and we remain bullish on risk and the USD.

EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The ECB is currently in motion, taking gradual steps towards a potential interest rate cut.</li><li>This development signifies a noteworthy acknowledgment of the disinflationary pressures, which have proven to be stronger than initially anticipated by the ECB.</li><li>Lagarde even acknowledged progress on disinflation compared to the December baseline just over the past few weeks.</li></ul>

The ECB is currently in motion, taking gradual steps towards a potential interest rate cut.This development signifies a noteworthy acknowledgment of the disinflationary pressures, which have proven to be stronger than initially anticipated by the ECB.Lagarde even acknowledged progress on disinflation compared to the December baseline just over the past few weeks.

ECB Watch: The ECB is likely wrong on all major parameters

<ul><li>The inflation reports for January will be released in a week from now in Spain/Germany and other European countries.</li><li>The early consensus in Germany is all over the place with entries on the HICP nationwide MoM in Germany ranging from -0.4% from Credit Agricole to 0.2% from Hamburg Commercial bank.</li><li>Our now-cast is currently at -0.54% for Germany but we will continue to watch the price developments carefully daily.</li></ul>

The inflation reports for January will be released in a week from now in Spain/Germany and other European countries.The early consensus in Germany is all over the place with entries on the HICP nationwide MoM in Germany ranging from -0.4% from Credit Agricole to 0.2% from Hamburg Commercial bank.Our now-cast is currently at -0.54% for Germany but we will continue to watch the price developments carefully daily.

EUR-flation Nugget: A brief nowcast update..

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

US Rates: The Calm Before The (Policy) Storm

The US rates market has experienced a slowdown in coupon auction increases and ruled out the possibility of further rate hikes, while the Federal...

At Any Rate

Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit

As we laid out last week our hands are up in the air long everything like we just don’t care- except bonds.The reason is that the existing regime...

Steno Research

EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

Key takeaways:The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours...

Steno Research

ECB Watch: The ECB is likely wrong on all major parameters

The ECB is currently in motion, taking gradual steps towards a potential interest rate cut. This development signifies a noteworthy acknowledgment...

Steno Research

EUR-flation Nugget: A brief nowcast update..

The inflation reports for January will be released in a week from now in Spain/Germany and other European countries. The early consensus in...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)