Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, but the data does not fully support this expectation.</li>
<li>The dollar has performed well this week, and further upside is plausible due to low-grade US exceptionalism and underwhelming global economic data.</li>
<li>The focus on the Fed and US rates is important, but the non-US side should not be overlooked, as there is a stark difference in initial conditions between the US and other G7 rate curves. The rate differentials could lead to a convergence with the US catching up to other rate curves, resulting in a volatile and high-impact dollar trend.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>


The market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, but the data does not fully support this expectation.
The dollar has performed well this week, and further upside is plausible due to low-grade US exceptionalism and underwhelming global economic data.
The focus on the Fed and US rates is important, but the non-US side should not be overlooked, as there is a stark difference in initial conditions between the US and other G7 rate curves. The rate differentials could lead to a convergence with the US catching up to other rate curves, resulting in a volatile and high-impact dollar trend.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Something’s Starting to Give

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to smithereens, but what is the major surprise this year?</li><li>Back in mid-December, between 5-7% of respondents in the widely renowned fund manager betted on higher interest rates and/or inflation in 2024.</li><li>This is the kind of consensus that only arises once we are leaning towards the mid-to-late innings of the recession, but the problem is that we are probably not even in a recession (in the US) yet.</li></ul>

Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to smithereens, but what is the major surprise this year?Back in mid-December, between 5-7% of respondents in the widely renowned fund manager betted on higher interest rates and/or inflation in 2024.This is the kind of consensus that only arises once we are leaning towards the mid-to-late innings of the recession, but the problem is that we are probably not even in a recession (in the US) yet.

Steno Signals #83 – A striking divergence between EUR and USD money trends

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.</li><li>US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in Europe</li><li>It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.</li></ul>

Takeaways: Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds.US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished lately, particularly in the US, but remain a concern in EuropeIt’s becoming increasingly clear that the Treasury is going to be front and center in 2024.

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>Granted, methodology does not have a very sexy ring to it, but a return-making edge may be hidden in the details.</li><li>In this untraditional edition of the ‘US Inflation Watch’ we take a closer look at the dis- and similarities between Powell &amp; Co.’s go-to PCE and the more popularly known CPI.</li><li>Our models do in fact point to a likely surprise to next week’s PCE.</li></ul>

Granted, methodology does not have a very sexy ring to it, but a return-making edge may be hidden in the details.In this untraditional edition of the ‘US Inflation Watch’ we take a closer look at the dis- and similarities between Powell &amp; Co.’s go-to PCE and the more popularly known CPI.Our models do in fact point to a likely surprise to next week’s PCE.

US Inflation Watch: Methodology Matters – Upside surprise in PCE according to CPI?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.</li><li>There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).</li><li>It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.</li></ul>

US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Global FX: Something’s Starting to Give

Overall, the article suggests that while the dollar has performed well recently, there are factors such as the lack of global dynamics and...

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #83 – A striking divergence between EUR and USD money trends

Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put

Takeaways:– Equities are currently a preferred refuge over bonds. – US is still the place to be relative to peers– Recession risks have diminished...

Steno Research

US Inflation Watch: Methodology Matters – Upside surprise in PCE according to CPI?

Granted, methodology does not have a very sexy ring to it, but a return-making edge may be hidden in the details. In this untraditional edition of...

Steno Research

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves...

Steno Research

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