Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow.</li><li>Last month (ending 11/30), the WTR AI Index was down 7.0% M/M versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.6%).</li><li>Software (28% of the index) was down 8.6%, while Semiconductor (12% of the index) was down 3.7%, Internet and Data Services (8% of the index) was down 20.9%, Other Tech (21% of the index) was down 5.5%, and Other Industries (31% of the index) was down 3.6%. </li></ul>

Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow.Last month (ending 11/30), the WTR AI Index was down 7.0% M/M versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.6%).Software (28% of the index) was down 8.6%, while Semiconductor (12% of the index) was down 3.7%, Internet and Data Services (8% of the index) was down 20.9%, Other Tech (21% of the index) was down 5.5%, and Other Industries (31% of the index) was down 3.6%. 

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral</li>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here</li>
<li>Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200</li>
</ul>


We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral
The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here
Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200


Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Single-Molecule precision enables highly accurate, scalable tests across prenatal and oncology diagnostics, setting BillionToOne apart from traditional sequencing-based competitors.</li>
<li>BillionToOne delivers 100%+ revenue growth, 69% gross margins, and positive EBITDA—rare performance metrics in molecular diagnostics ahead of its $2.3B IPO.</li>
<li>IPO is multiple-times oversubscribed with long-only healthcare anchors and top-tier backers, signaling strong institutional confidence ahead of pricing.</li>
</ul>


Single-Molecule precision enables highly accurate, scalable tests across prenatal and oncology diagnostics, setting BillionToOne apart from traditional sequencing-based competitors.
BillionToOne delivers 100%+ revenue growth, 69% gross margins, and positive EBITDA—rare performance metrics in molecular diagnostics ahead of its $2.3B IPO.
IPO is multiple-times oversubscribed with long-only healthcare anchors and top-tier backers, signaling strong institutional confidence ahead of pricing.


BillionToOne (BLLN) IPO: High-Growth Molecular Diagnostics Firm Captures Strong Investor Interest

Circle Internet Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.</li>
<li>Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.
Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.


Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>After an IPO attempt two years ago, Mirxes filed an updated prospectus in an attempt to raise at least US$100m via a Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we analyzed its product pipelines and highlighted signs of commercialization challenges.</li>
<li>In this note, we note that the company expanded its clinical trial plans. Yet, more data shows that blockbuster-level uptakes are unlikely given the profile of its clinical data.</li>
</ul>


After an IPO attempt two years ago, Mirxes filed an updated prospectus in an attempt to raise at least US$100m via a Hong Kong listing.
In our previous note, we analyzed its product pipelines and highlighted signs of commercialization challenges.
In this note, we note that the company expanded its clinical trial plans. Yet, more data shows that blockbuster-level uptakes are unlikely given the profile of its clinical data.


Mirxes Pre-IPO: Challenges for Mass Adoption Become Clearer

United States

Exact Sciences Corp., is focused on developing and commercializing a non-invasive molecular screening test for the early detection and prevention of colorectal cancer. The Company's test is a stool-based DNA test that identifies both pre-cancer and cancer by detecting genetic mutations in colorectal cancer cells.

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Exact Sciences (EXAS US)

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI

Last month (ending 11/30), the WTR AI Index was down 7.0% M/M versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq...

Water Tower Research

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

BillionToOne (BLLN) IPO: High-Growth Molecular Diagnostics Firm Captures Strong Investor Interest

BillionToOne's single-molecule precision technology sets them apart in prenatal and oncology diagnostics, leading to impressive revenue growth and...

IPO Boutique

Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

Downgrading Financials $XLF to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore: quantum, nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar,...

Vermilion Research

Mirxes Pre-IPO: Challenges for Mass Adoption Become Clearer

Mirxes files updated prospectus for Hong Kong listing, expanding clinical trial plans but facing challenges in achieving blockbuster-level success.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI

Last month (ending 11/30), the WTR AI Index was down 7.0% M/M versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq...

Water Tower Research

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

BillionToOne (BLLN) IPO: High-Growth Molecular Diagnostics Firm Captures Strong Investor Interest

​BillionToOne's single-molecule precision technology sets them apart in prenatal and oncology diagnostics, leading to impressive revenue growth and...

IPO Boutique

Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

Downgrading Financials $XLF to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore: quantum, nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar,...

Vermilion Research

Mirxes Pre-IPO: Challenges for Mass Adoption Become Clearer

​Mirxes files updated prospectus for Hong Kong listing, expanding clinical trial plans but facing challenges in achieving blockbuster-level success.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

BillionToOne's single-molecule precision technology sets them apart in prenatal and oncology diagnostics, leading to impressive revenue growth and...

Mirxes files updated prospectus for Hong Kong listing, expanding clinical trial plans but facing challenges in achieving blockbuster-level success.