TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Blowout (in a bad way) opex and capex guidance triggered a puke in META. Metaverse spending slowdowns completely ignored by Zuck.</li>
<li>Underlying engagement trends are suprisingly solid, as is underlying revenue growth (which was 8% organic this quarter ex-FX, IDFA, and Reels).</li>
<li>The key question is...what is the LT capital intensity for META to retain its competitive advantage through AI - related spending.</li>
</ul>


Blowout (in a bad way) opex and capex guidance triggered a puke in META. Metaverse spending slowdowns completely ignored by Zuck.
Underlying engagement trends are suprisingly solid, as is underlying revenue growth (which was 8% organic this quarter ex-FX, IDFA, and Reels).
The key question is...what is the LT capital intensity for META to retain its competitive advantage through AI - related spending.


META Platforms 3Q22: You Got to Keep ‘em Separated

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>Internet advertising revenue growth has come in below expectations for Google, Meta and CyberAgent as ad budgets appear to be shrinking</li>
<li>There is an indirect read-across to Z Holdings which has almost always posted slower ad growth although it has some insulation from volatility with eCommerce and LINE official accounts</li>
<li>Sill, management targets for ad revenue growth of 5-10% look increasingly challenging which is an issue when Media generates c. 80% of profitability. We remain cautious</li>
</ul>


Internet advertising revenue growth has come in below expectations for Google, Meta and CyberAgent as ad budgets appear to be shrinking
There is an indirect read-across to Z Holdings which has almost always posted slower ad growth although it has some insulation from volatility with eCommerce and LINE official accounts
Sill, management targets for ad revenue growth of 5-10% look increasingly challenging which is an issue when Media generates c. 80% of profitability. We remain cautious


Z Holdings (Neutral) - Quick Thoughts on the Read Across from Google, Meta, and CyberAgent

<ul>
<li>How long until SNAP gets back to Zuck's original $3B buyout offer?!</li>
<li>Key negative point: US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal as much as TikTok.</li>
<li>Uninvestable or Long Time Horizon? Least visibility of any major public company we've ever followed. Don't know the answer!</li>
</ul>


How long until SNAP gets back to Zuck's original $3B buyout offer?!
Key negative point: US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal as much as TikTok.
Uninvestable or Long Time Horizon? Least visibility of any major public company we've ever followed. Don't know the answer!


Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Flowing Cloud Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese metaverse firm Flowing Cloud Technology Ltd. saw its Hong Kong shares fall on their first two days of trading as speculation on the hype around the emerging industry cools off. </li>
<li>The company’s main business is producing content and providing services to other businesses based on augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) technologies.</li>
<li>Last year, it began to operate its own metaverse platform featuring VR-powered social interactions.</li>
</ul>


Chinese metaverse firm Flowing Cloud Technology Ltd. saw its Hong Kong shares fall on their first two days of trading as speculation on the hype around the emerging industry cools off. 
The company’s main business is producing content and providing services to other businesses based on augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) technologies.
Last year, it began to operate its own metaverse platform featuring VR-powered social interactions.


Chinese Metaverse Firm Flowing Cloud Drops in Hong Kong Debut

<ul>
<li>Roblox is proving out management's assertion that bookings growth would reaccelerate in the back half of the year.</li>
<li>The company extended its average user life from 25 to 28 months. Signal of falling churn.</li>
<li>Roblox usage continues to dwarf all other social media; DAUs spend 2.5x more time per day than TikTok or Instagram users.</li>
</ul>


Roblox is proving out management's assertion that bookings growth would reaccelerate in the back half of the year.
The company extended its average user life from 25 to 28 months. Signal of falling churn.
Roblox usage continues to dwarf all other social media; DAUs spend 2.5x more time per day than TikTok or Instagram users.


Why Roblox’s September Metrics Are Even Better Than They Appear

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

META Platforms 3Q22: You Got to Keep ‘em Separated

We think the current trajectory for META is unsustainable. The company will lose talent soon if the stock doesn't start to work, which requires...

Aaron Gabin

Z Holdings (Neutral) - Quick Thoughts on the Read Across from Google, Meta, and CyberAgent

Industry ad revenue growth has disappointed which could put Z Holding's target of 5-10% growth at risk. Unique exposure to eCommerce monetization...

Kirk Boodry

Snap 3Q22: Tik Tik Tik (Tok) …BOOM

3rd 30% drop in a year? Any glimmer of hope? Still growing user base...but US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal...

Aaron Gabin

Chinese Metaverse Firm Flowing Cloud Drops in Hong Kong Debut

Chinese metaverse firm Flowing Cloud Technology Ltd. saw its Hong Kong shares fall on their first two days of trading as speculation on the hype...

Caixin Global

Why Roblox’s September Metrics Are Even Better Than They Appear

Roblox printed excellet September usage metrics that confirm management's claims that growth would reaccelerate in the back half of the year. On...

Aaron Gabin

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