TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Optically weak earnings and guidance due to FX and macro headwinds aren't as bad as it seems... Meta's ad business grew faster QoQ than Google's Search.</li>
<li>Zuckerberg downplayed the social graph as core to Meta's LT competitive advantage. AI is the future.</li>
<li>At $160, we think Meta is preposterously undervalued. 2023 revenue acceleration and margin expansion means the stock is trading 9x forward P/E ex-cash. </li>
</ul>


Optically weak earnings and guidance due to FX and macro headwinds aren't as bad as it seems... Meta's ad business grew faster QoQ than Google's Search.
Zuckerberg downplayed the social graph as core to Meta's LT competitive advantage. AI is the future.
At $160, we think Meta is preposterously undervalued. 2023 revenue acceleration and margin expansion means the stock is trading 9x forward P/E ex-cash. 


Facebook 2Q22: Network Effects Are Yesterday’s News, AI Is the Future

<ul>
<li>Snap had yet another earnings related meltdown as management has lost all credibility in forecasting its business. </li>
<li>Because co-founders Spiegel and Murphy have 99.5% voting shares, there is not an opportunity for an activist to fix the situation like Pinterest and Twitter.</li>
<li>The issues plaguing Snap are likely not hurting META as much given a broader ad base, better ROI on its ads, and a mgmt team that has already guided down.</li>
</ul>


Snap had yet another earnings related meltdown as management has lost all credibility in forecasting its business. 
Because co-founders Spiegel and Murphy have 99.5% voting shares, there is not an opportunity for an activist to fix the situation like Pinterest and Twitter.
The issues plaguing Snap are likely not hurting META as much given a broader ad base, better ROI on its ads, and a mgmt team that has already guided down.


High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The second quarter earnings season officially kicked off last week with financials getting things started. </li><li>Earnings season will pick up this upcoming week with key reports expected from notable names like Bank of America, Tesla, Netflix, Johnson &amp; Johnson, and Capital One. </li><li>We already know that inflation in the form of rising input costs like energy and labor will eat into profit margins and earnings. </li></ul>

The second quarter earnings season officially kicked off last week with financials getting things started. Earnings season will pick up this upcoming week with key reports expected from notable names like Bank of America, Tesla, Netflix, Johnson &amp; Johnson, and Capital One. We already know that inflation in the form of rising input costs like energy and labor will eat into profit margins and earnings. 

<ul>
<li>TikTok's business model advantage: short form video creates greater signal for algorithmic addiction is forcing rivals to react (where possible).</li>
<li>META is best positioned to copy TikTok, and is trading at a valuation approximating cable networks during cord cutting.</li>
<li>Netflix is worst positioned... as YouTube, Instagram, and Snap incorporate TikTok's short form video, more attention will be drawn away from the streaming services. Tough spot to be in.</li>
</ul>


TikTok's business model advantage: short form video creates greater signal for algorithmic addiction is forcing rivals to react (where possible).
META is best positioned to copy TikTok, and is trading at a valuation approximating cable networks during cord cutting.
Netflix is worst positioned... as YouTube, Instagram, and Snap incorporate TikTok's short form video, more attention will be drawn away from the streaming services. Tough spot to be in.


President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

<ul>
<li>Enterprise storage hardware market faces numerous headwinds and increasing commoditization</li>
<li>STaaS is cannibalistic, facing increasing competition, and decelerated in the MRQ</li>
<li>Each of the last 2 quarters have seen some meaningful, non-recurring revenues lead to PSTG beating estimates</li>
</ul>


Enterprise storage hardware market faces numerous headwinds and increasing commoditization
STaaS is cannibalistic, facing increasing competition, and decelerated in the MRQ
Each of the last 2 quarters have seen some meaningful, non-recurring revenues lead to PSTG beating estimates


Pure Storage (PSTG): Market Leader Facing Commoditization of Its Products

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Meta (META US)

Facebook 2Q22: Network Effects Are Yesterday’s News, AI Is the Future

Macro clouds and Reels monetization headwinds will dissipate in 2023, providing an excellent entry point post earnings at $160, which by our math...

Aaron Gabin

Snap 2Q22: Why We Buy Meta

Snap caught 14 downgrades. Astonishing, but deserved for a management team that has no handle on its business. Snap still has a healthy user base...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 7/18

Earnings season will pick up this upcoming week with key reports expected from notable names like Bank of America, Tesla, Netflix, Johnson &...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

TMT Pre-2Q Earnings: The TikTok Impact

TikTok is wreaking havoc on the advertising and streaming ecosystems by stealing attention. META is best positioned to respond, NFLX is least well...

Aaron Gabin

Pure Storage (PSTG): Market Leader Facing Commoditization of Its Products

Market share losses are likely occurring and the "recurring revenue STaaS" story may be decelerating amidst competition, pricing pressure, and...

Robert C Prather Jr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)