Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We remain bearish on Fast Retailing given its valuation premium versus global peers</li>
<li>Q1 sales were resilient despite global cost of living issues. Profits missed on rising costs and China's Covid hangover </li>
<li>Cost pressures on the wage bill could be a multi-year issue as Uniqlo seeks to align with global pay standards</li>
</ul>


We remain bearish on Fast Retailing given its valuation premium versus global peers
Q1 sales were resilient despite global cost of living issues. Profits missed on rising costs and China's Covid hangover 
Cost pressures on the wage bill could be a multi-year issue as Uniqlo seeks to align with global pay standards


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Although it looks quite challenging, we think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> should beat consensus when it reports 1QFY23 results on 12th Jan 2023.</li>
<li>We think shares could briefly touch 2021 highs on a relatively strong beat as it would suggest that the company’s aggressive expansion plans in North America and Europe are viable.</li>
<li>Thus, we would look to buy Fast Retailing with a short investment horizon. We see considerable downside risks over a full-year period.</li>
</ul>


Although it looks quite challenging, we think Fast Retailing (9983 JP) should beat consensus when it reports 1QFY23 results on 12th Jan 2023.
We think shares could briefly touch 2021 highs on a relatively strong beat as it would suggest that the company’s aggressive expansion plans in North America and Europe are viable.
Thus, we would look to buy Fast Retailing with a short investment horizon. We see considerable downside risks over a full-year period.


Fast Retailing: Another Beat Would Suggest That FR’s North America & Europe Expansion Is Viable

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiei-kankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36539:1" rel="noopener">Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP)</a> , a waste management company, raised around US$314m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Daiei Kankyo is involved in the waste management and related businesses in Japan. The core of its operations consists of its waste management and recycling business</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and talked about valuations. In this note, we’ll talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP) , a waste management company, raised around US$314m in its Japan IPO.
Daiei Kankyo is involved in the waste management and related businesses in Japan. The core of its operations consists of its waste management and recycling business
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and talked about valuations. In this note, we’ll talk about the trading dynamics.


Daiei Kankyo IPO Trading - Peers Have Been Correcting

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The apparel/fashion sector made a partial recovery last year but was still down on 2019. 2022 looks a lot brighter with customers now back in stores including even inbound tourists. </li>
<li>The same challenges that the sector faced before Covid remain but there is plenty of room to grow by taking share from the less innovative competitors – i.e. more consolidation.</li>
<li>The sector saw the highest fall in store numbers in its history last year, but there was more investment in creating a compelling omnichannel model suited to Japan’s particular market.</li>
</ul>


The apparel/fashion sector made a partial recovery last year but was still down on 2019. 2022 looks a lot brighter with customers now back in stores including even inbound tourists. 
The same challenges that the sector faced before Covid remain but there is plenty of room to grow by taking share from the less innovative competitors – i.e. more consolidation.
The sector saw the highest fall in store numbers in its history last year, but there was more investment in creating a compelling omnichannel model suited to Japan’s particular market.


Japan's Apparel/Fashion Sector Big Review: Momentum Builds for Full Recovery

<ul>
<li>Retail stocks perform well again as China relaxes restrictions on domestic travel</li>
<li>However, it could take a couple of years for international travel to return to previous levels</li>
<li>We believe that most of the catalysts for our bullish stance on this macro call have now played out</li>
</ul>


Retail stocks perform well again as China relaxes restrictions on domestic travel
However, it could take a couple of years for international travel to return to previous levels
We believe that most of the catalysts for our bullish stance on this macro call have now played out


Japan Weekly | Chinese Tourists Stay Close to Home

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Fast Retailing (9983) | Q1 Miss

We remain bearish on Fast Retailing due to valuation concerns versus global peers. MRQ results showed top line strength but cost pressures hit the...

Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing: Another Beat Would Suggest That FR’s North America & Europe Expansion Is Viable

We would expect shares to rally short-term after 1QFY23 earnings this week. We think it is quite possible for the shares to briefly touch even the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Daiei Kankyo IPO Trading - Peers Have Been Correcting

Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP) , a waste management company, raised around US$314m in its Japan IPO. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Japan's Apparel/Fashion Sector Big Review: Momentum Builds for Full Recovery

Japan's fashion and apparel sector was severely hit by the pandemic and the loss of tourism. With wallets full, Japanese are now spending again...

Michael Causton

Japan Weekly | Chinese Tourists Stay Close to Home

The Japan Weekly discusses those stocks that have performed well (or not) over the past week. This time, we look at the strong performance of...

Mark Chadwick

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