Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 61 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Six new deals! Australia's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/selfwealth-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30690:1" rel="noopener">SelfWealth (SWF AU)</a>, and Japan's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tohto-suisan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7524:1" rel="noopener">Tohto Suisan (8038 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tecnos-japan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5167:1" rel="noopener">Tecnos Japan (3666 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/proto-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2511:1" rel="noopener">Proto (4298 JP)</a>, &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-sugar-refining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2182:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Sugar Refining (2107 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntec-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:151:1" rel="noopener">Suntec REIT (SUN SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong (2888 TT)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin  (2887 TT)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 61 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Six new deals! Australia's SelfWealth (SWF AU), and Japan's Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tohto Suisan (8038 JP), Tecnos Japan (3666 JP), Proto (4298 JP), &amp; Toyo Sugar Refining (2107 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU) , Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) , Fuji Soft (9749 JP), Suntec REIT (SUN SP), and Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin  (2887 TT).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, Tecnos, Insignia Fin., Fosun Tourism, Fuji Soft, Shin Kong/Taishin

<ul>
<li>Back on the 10th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> announced a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1210/2024121000882.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rare Scheme buyback</a>, with a Cancellation Price of $7.80/share (not declared final), a punchy 95% premium to undisturbed. </li>
<li>A successful Scheme would result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a> and concert parties holding 100% in Fosun Tourism - without having to outlay a cent. </li>
<li>A scrip alternative was afforded IF expressions of interests from 1% of shares out occurred. That didn't happen. Still a clean deal. Scheme Doc dispatch is the 14th Feb.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 10th December 2024, Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) announced a rare Scheme buyback, with a Cancellation Price of $7.80/share (not declared final), a punchy 95% premium to undisturbed. 
A successful Scheme would result in Fosun International (656 HK) and concert parties holding 100% in Fosun Tourism - without having to outlay a cent. 
A scrip alternative was afforded IF expressions of interests from 1% of shares out occurred. That didn't happen. Still a clean deal. Scheme Doc dispatch is the 14th Feb.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): No Love For The Scrip Alternative

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>'s profit warning suggested a significant deterioration in profitability in 2H24, fading any near-term recovery hope. </li>
<li>With losses enlarged 89-126% YoY in 2H24, it is more difficult to return to its peak and IPO share prices. This makes the buyback proposal even more attractive.</li>
<li>We take the inability to introduce the Potential Share Alternative Option as a lack of confidence by the existing shareholders in Fosun Tourism's medium-term outlook.</li>
</ul>



Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)'s profit warning suggested a significant deterioration in profitability in 2H24, fading any near-term recovery hope. 
With losses enlarged 89-126% YoY in 2H24, it is more difficult to return to its peak and IPO share prices. This makes the buyback proposal even more attractive.
We take the inability to introduce the Potential Share Alternative Option as a lack of confidence by the existing shareholders in Fosun Tourism's medium-term outlook.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Affirming Our Support for the Buyback

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun International, China Hongqiao</li>
<li>In the US, the ISM services index expanded to 54.1 (53.5 e / 52.1 p). This was driven by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, while the employment component was stable.</li>
<li>Separately, the November JOLTS job openings rose to 8.10 mn (7.74 mn e / 7.84 mn p). The November trade deficit expanded to USD 78.2 bn (USD 78.3 bn e / USD 73.6 bn revised p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun International, China Hongqiao
In the US, the ISM services index expanded to 54.1 (53.5 e / 52.1 p). This was driven by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, while the employment component was stable.
Separately, the November JOLTS job openings rose to 8.10 mn (7.74 mn e / 7.84 mn p). The November trade deficit expanded to USD 78.2 bn (USD 78.3 bn e / USD 73.6 bn revised p).


Trung Nguyen

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Adani Green Energy, Fosun International</li>
<li>In the US, the final services PMI for December 2024 edged up to 56.8 (56.1 p), while the composite PMI rose to 55.4 (54.9 p). Separately in November, factory orders declined 0.4% (-0.3% e / 0.5% revised p), and the final durable goods orders fell 1.2% (-0.5% e / -1.1% p).</li>
<li>Long-end treasury yields climbed, with the UST curve bear-steepening after a weak auction of 3Y notes and amid a large supply of US corporate bond issuances.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Adani Green Energy, Fosun International
In the US, the final services PMI for December 2024 edged up to 56.8 (56.1 p), while the composite PMI rose to 55.4 (54.9 p). Separately in November, factory orders declined 0.4% (-0.3% e / 0.5% revised p), and the final durable goods orders fell 1.2% (-0.5% e / -1.1% p).
Long-end treasury yields climbed, with the UST curve bear-steepening after a weak auction of 3Y notes and amid a large supply of US corporate bond issuances.


China

Fosun International Limited operates diversified businesses. The Company manufactures steel, develops property, manufactures pharmaceuticals, and holds interests in retailers, financial services providers, and gold and iron mining.

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Fosun International (656 HK)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, Tecnos, Insignia Fin., Fosun Tourism, Fuji Soft, Shin Kong/Taishin

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): No Love For The Scrip Alternative

This transaction is done. No competing Offer will emerge. IF payment early April, I'd pay up to HK$7.62/share for a gross/annualised return of 2%/15%.

David Blennerhassett

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Affirming Our Support for the Buyback

Fosun Tourism's profit warning signals weaker profitability in 2H24, dimming near-term recovery hopes. Coupled with not introducing the Share...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Adani Green Energy, Fosun...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, Tecnos, Insignia Fin., Fosun Tourism, Fuji Soft, Shin Kong/Taishin

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): No Love For The Scrip Alternative

This transaction is done. No competing Offer will emerge. IF payment early April, I'd pay up to HK$7.62/share for a gross/annualised return of 2%/15%.

David Blennerhassett

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Affirming Our Support for the Buyback

​Fosun Tourism's profit warning signals weaker profitability in 2H24, dimming near-term recovery hopes. Coupled with not introducing the Share...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Adani Green Energy, Fosun...

Lucror Analytics

Fosun Tourism's profit warning signals weaker profitability in 2H24, dimming near-term recovery hopes. Coupled with not introducing the Share...