Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

We are beginning to see some mild deterioration in market dynamics, including a break below the key 1.45% support level on the 10-year Treasury yield which is coupled with underperformance from small-caps and value Sectors. Still, other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market.

We are beginning to see some mild deterioration in market dynamics, including a break below the key 1.45% support level on the 10-year Treasury yield which is coupled with underperformance from small-caps and value Sectors. Still, other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Private Capital Markets

Shein is a monster e-commerce company based in China. Shein is the fastest growing e-commerce company in the world. The company generated nearly $10 billion in revenues in 2020, up nearly 250% YoY. Shein could realistically overtake Zara in terms of revenues by 2022. Shein's core business model is to sell clothing (mostly women's apparel) online to the younger generation consumers in the US, Europe, and other parts of the world. <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/22/why-amazon-should-pay-attention-to-shein/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shein</a> is especially popular among the budget conscious younger generation in the Americas, Europe, and Asia (excluding China). The following are the key competitive advantages of Shein:<ul>
<li>Superb execution of "art of trend setting" in apparel products</li>
<li>Extremely attractive pricing</li>
<li>Faster adoption of new fashion styles</li>
<li>Aggressive promotions through influencers and discount codes</li>
<li>Effective use of data analytics and technology</li>
<li>Capitalize on the tax loop holes between the US and China</li>
</ul>The tremendous growth of Shein and other pure-play fashion companies have had major negative impact on some of the largest apparel companies with signficant brick and mortar operations such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gap-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7941:1" rel="noopener">Gap Inc/The (GPS US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industria-de-diseno-textil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21278:1" rel="noopener">Industria De Diseno Textil Sa (ITX SM)</a>.

Shein is a monster e-commerce company based in China. Shein is the fastest growing e-commerce company in the world. The company generated nearly $10 billion in revenues in 2020, up nearly 250% YoY. Shein could realistically overtake Zara in terms of revenues by 2022. Shein's core business model is to sell clothing (mostly women's apparel) online to the younger generation consumers in the US, Europe, and other parts of the world. Shein is especially popular among the budget conscious younger generation in the Americas, Europe, and Asia (excluding China). The following are the key competitive advantages of Shein:
Superb execution of "art of trend setting" in apparel products
Extremely attractive pricing
Faster adoption of new fashion styles
Aggressive promotions through influencers and discount codes
Effective use of data analytics and technology
Capitalize on the tax loop holes between the US and China
The tremendous growth of Shein and other pure-play fashion companies have had major negative impact on some of the largest apparel companies with signficant brick and mortar operations such as Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Gap Inc/The (GPS US), and Industria De Diseno Textil Sa (ITX SM).

SHEIN: The Fastest Growing E-Commerce Company in the World & Ready to Overtake Zara in 2022?

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics have deteriorated and are now much more mixed overall. Deteriorating signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive. This tells us any weakness should be treated as a buying opportunity and our outlook remains constructive for the months ahead.

Market dynamics have deteriorated and are now much more mixed overall. Deteriorating signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive. This tells us any weakness should be treated as a buying opportunity and our outlook remains constructive for the months ahead.

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Fast Retailing looks like finally having the potential to become number one.Like other Japanese apparel retailers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> faces challenges over the coming six months but its discipline and forward planning bode well for improving returns.It is overseas markets where its real opportunity and challenges lie but Uniqlo looks like having more traction globally than ever before, fast becoming a true global retailer.While disciplined supply chain management and product development help, there is one ingredient above all that looks set to help it compete at the top of the rankings: at last it has a coherent, meaningful – and increasingly global – brand.Today, Uniqlo is regarded as an innovator not through design but through fabric development, using its access to Japan’s myriad textile and technology businesses to adapt new inventions to apparel and accessories.This coherent branding means Fast Retailing looks set to take on Inditex and H&amp;M for leadership at the top of the global apparel rankings.On the profit side, while Fast Retailing has for long been a profit machine compared to its Japanese peers, it has always lagged companies like Inditex because of its insistence of maintaining store stock levels. It is now working to rationalise this policy with significant implications for future profitability.The following is an in-depth review of Uniqlo from a brand, merchandising and marketing perspective.

Fast Retailing looks like finally having the potential to become number one.Like other Japanese apparel retailers, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) faces challenges over the coming six months but its discipline and forward planning bode well for improving returns.It is overseas markets where its real opportunity and challenges lie but Uniqlo looks like having more traction globally than ever before, fast becoming a true global retailer.While disciplined supply chain management and product development help, there is one ingredient above all that looks set to help it compete at the top of the rankings: at last it has a coherent, meaningful – and increasingly global – brand.Today, Uniqlo is regarded as an innovator not through design but through fabric development, using its access to Japan’s myriad textile and technology businesses to adapt new inventions to apparel and accessories.This coherent branding means Fast Retailing looks set to take on Inditex and H&amp;M for leadership at the top of the global apparel rankings.On the profit side, while Fast Retailing has for long been a profit machine compared to its Japanese peers, it has always lagged companies like Inditex because of its insistence of maintaining store stock levels. It is now working to rationalise this policy with significant implications for future profitability.The following is an in-depth review of Uniqlo from a brand, merchandising and marketing perspective.

United States

The Gap, Inc., is an international specialty retailer operating retail and outlet stores.  The Company sells casual apparel, accessories and personal care products for men, women, and children. The Gap operates stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, and Japan.

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Gap Inc/The (GPS US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Financials, Materials, and Industrials. We discuss implications of the break below the key 1.45% support level on...

Vermilion Research

SHEIN: The Fastest Growing E-Commerce Company in the World & Ready to Overtake Zara in 2022?

Shein is the fastest growing e-commerce company in the world. The company generated nearly $10 billion in revenues in 2020, up nearly 250% YoY....

Douglas Kim

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading U.S. Staples To Market Weight

Despite mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive and our outlook remains constructive for the...

Vermilion Research

Uniqlo: The Toyota of Clothing

Uniqlo's branding is at last coming together outside Japan. For the first time, we finally believe Fast Retailing may be on track for global...

Michael Causton

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