Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

Gol Linhas Aereas Intel-Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GOL has filed for CH11 in a New York court and will look to restructure, as major competitors/peers LATAM Group, Avianca and Aeromexico did when COVID struck, disadvantaging GOL.</li>
<li>To illustrate GOL's disadvantage; in 9M23, GOL's financing costs outweighed its EBITDAR to drive a negative PBT, whereas LATAM's PBT represented 29% of EBITDAR, despite lower EBITDAR margins of 22%. </li>
<li>Based on recent precedents, we expect the process may take two years.</li>
</ul>


GOL has filed for CH11 in a New York court and will look to restructure, as major competitors/peers LATAM Group, Avianca and Aeromexico did when COVID struck, disadvantaging GOL.
To illustrate GOL's disadvantage; in 9M23, GOL's financing costs outweighed its EBITDAR to drive a negative PBT, whereas LATAM's PBT represented 29% of EBITDAR, despite lower EBITDAR margins of 22%. 
Based on recent precedents, we expect the process may take two years.


GOL - Chapter 11 Filing In a Bid to Ensure Financial Sustainability

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4300.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170<span id="autocomplete"><span id="autocomplete-searchtext"></span></span>
</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4300.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170



Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.
The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.


Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

Brazil

Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. provides airline services for passengers and cargo.  The Company offers scheduled air transportation, cargo shipping, flight rescheduling, logistics, and onboard connectivity services. Gol Linhas Ae reas Inteligentes serves customers worldwide.

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Gol Linhas Aereas Intel-Adr (GOL US)

GOL - Chapter 11 Filing In a Bid to Ensure Financial Sustainability

Perspective on GOL filing for Chapter 11 in the US, including its disadvantage to restructured peers and the likely timeline based on recent...

Neil Glynn

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

Russell 2000 $IWM Testing $180 Support; $RTY $SPX Breadth Remains Constructive; Highlighting buy ideas in Services (Research/Consulting &...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

5/2/23 we discussed how $Nasdaq Comp was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 was possible. It hit 13,154 Tuesday as...

Vermilion Research

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