Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<p>In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years earlier.&nbsp;A number of structural and cyclical headwinds continued to adversely impact the sector, including the persistently strong Australian dollar, consumer caution associated with the financial crisis and increased competition from e-tailers.&nbsp;In this post, I argue that signs of a less cautious consumer are emerging.&nbsp;There is downside risk to the household saving ratio as households become more optimistic about the future, durable goods spending continues to recover and consumer sentiment should benefit from the positive reaction to the Federal Budget.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, I recommend investors neutralise their under-weight bets in discretionary retailers, with a view to moving overweight as more signs of a less cautious consumer emerge.&nbsp;Getting the sector call right is more important than stock selection, but we highlight stocks that offer the strongest upside, including Echo, GUD, Harvey Norman, Premier Investment and Super Retail.</p>

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years earlier.&nbsp;A number of structural and cyclical headwinds continued to adversely impact the sector, including the persistently strong Australian dollar, consumer caution associated with the financial crisis and increased competition from e-tailers.&nbsp;In this post, I argue that signs of a less cautious consumer are emerging.&nbsp;There is downside risk to the household saving ratio as households become more optimistic about the future, durable goods spending continues to recover and consumer sentiment should benefit from the positive reaction to the Federal Budget.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, I recommend investors neutralise their under-weight bets in discretionary retailers, with a view to moving overweight as more signs of a less cautious consumer emerge.&nbsp;Getting the sector call right is more important than stock selection, but we highlight stocks that offer the strongest upside, including Echo, GUD, Harvey Norman, Premier Investment and Super Retail.

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

Australia

GTN Limited is a supplier of traffic information reports to radio stations in Australia, United Kingdom, Canada, and Brazil. The Company receives commercial advertising spots adjacent to traffic, news, and information reports from its network of affiliates and these spots are bundled together and sold to advertisers on a national, regional, or specific market basis.

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Global Traffic Network (GTN AU)

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years...

Sam Ferraro

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